Celtic Edge Past St. Johnstone With Narrow Victory

Celtic claimed all three points at McDiarmid Park on Saturday afternoon, securing a hard-fought 1-0 victory over St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership. Mika Baur's second-half strike proved the difference on a day when Martin O'Neill's side were dominant in terms of territory and opportunity, yet found themselves made to work far harder than many might have expected by a well-organised home outfit.

Match Analysis

St. Johnstone began with clear defensive intent under Simo Valakari, and for the opening 45 minutes they largely succeeded in frustrating Celtic's attacking efforts. The hosts' compact shape offered little space for Celtic to exploit, and despite O'Neill's side enjoying 60% ball possession and generating 119 attacks to St. Johnstone's 70, the first half yielded little in the way of clear-cut chances converted.

The decisive moment arrived just seven minutes into the second half. Mika Baur, picking up a well-timed assist from Haissem Hassan, converted with a right-foot finish in the 52nd minute to break the deadlock. It was a goal that rewarded Celtic's persistent pressure and finally justified their statistical dominance — 9 shots on target compared to St. Johnstone's 3, and 11 corners to the hosts' 2.

St. Johnstone did not capitulate, however. Josh Campbell was booked just three minutes after the goal, perhaps reflecting the hosts' growing frustration, and Reece McAlear followed with a yellow card in the 69th minute. Valakari responded with a wave of substitutions around the hour mark, introducing Ruari Paton and Sam Stanton in an attempt to inject energy and find an equaliser, while later Kai Fotheringham and Danny Schmidt also entered the fray. Despite these efforts, St. Johnstone's attacking threat remained limited — their 4 shots off target and only 3 on target tell the story of a side focused primarily on keeping the deficit to a minimum.

Celtic managed the closing stages largely without alarm, though Liam Scales was booked for a foul in the 82nd minute before being replaced by the returning Kieran Tierney five minutes later. Baur himself earned a late yellow card in stoppage time for handball, an unnecessary blemish on an otherwise productive afternoon for the Swiss midfielder.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a Celtic win by 0-2, with a 64% probability assigned to an away victory and a confidence rating of 65/100. The direction of the result proved correct — Celtic did win — though the margin was narrower than predicted. The statistical picture, with Celtic enjoying significant advantages in dangerous attacks (87 vs 38) and successful passing percentage (90% vs 78%), fully aligned with our model's expectation of Celtic dominance. The single-goal margin, however, underlines how resolute St. Johnstone's defensive effort was throughout.

Key Takeaways

• Mika Baur was the match-winner, and his combination with Haissem Hassan before the assist was cut short by the latter's substitution in the 73rd minute, suggesting Celtic were managing his workload.
• St. Johnstone worked hard and limited Celtic's clinical output despite facing an overwhelming volume of pressure — a credit to Valakari's organisation.
• Celtic's corner count of 11 and 15 total shots reflect genuine dominance, but converting just one goal from that platform will give O'Neill cause to demand more efficiency going forward.
• The result keeps Celtic's Premiership campaign on track, though performances like this will need sharper finishing to see off more threatening opposition.