Akhmat Grozny 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala | Russian Premier League | 13 September 2026

Result Summary

A pulsating North Caucasus derby delivered five goals, ten yellow cards, and a dramatic late winner as Akhmat Grozny came from behind twice to claim all three points at home against Dynamo Makhachkala. The decisive moment arrived in the 85th minute when substitute Manuel Keliano fired home from the right to seal a 3–2 victory under the guidance of head coach Stanislav Cherchesov.

Match Analysis

The first half was a tense, physical affair. Discipline was a concern on both sides from the outset — Ismael Silva Lima was booked as early as the 2nd minute for a foul, while Makhachkala collected two yellows of their own before the break through Temirkhan Sundukov and Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov. Cherchesov's side spent much of the opening 45 minutes knocking the ball around with 52% possession and an 80% pass-completion rate, but it was a goalless interval, setting the stage for an explosive second half.

Cherchesov made a triple change at half-time — bringing on Georgi Melkadze and Sergey Pryakhin — and the alterations paid dividends, though not immediately. Gamid Agalarov struck first for Makhachkala on 48 minutes, converting a fine assist from Daniil Lesovoy with his left foot to break the deadlock. Akhmat responded quickly: Kalidou Sidibé powered home a header from Maksim Samorodov's delivery on 58 minutes to level the score.

The match then swung dramatically in Makhachkala's favour within a two-minute spell. Sundukov restored the visitors' lead with a right-foot finish on 64 minutes, only for Andrés Alarcón Mendoza to redirect the ball into his own net two minutes later, gifting Akhmat an equaliser. That own goal proved emblematic of a chaotic middle phase — bookings flew in on both sides, and the atmosphere crackled with intensity, reflected in the match's combined 16 fouls (Akhmat) and 20 fouls (Makhachkala).

With the game balanced at 2–2, substitute Keliano — introduced at the 65th minute — produced the winning moment on 85, converting from close range following a smart assist by Arsen Adamov. Despite Makhachkala generating an equal number of shots on target (4 each), Akhmat's overall attacking volume told the story: 15 total shots to just 6 for the visitors, supported by 11 key passes compared to Makhachkala's 5.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Akhmat Grozny home victory, assigning a 45% probability to the home side and carrying a confidence rating of 57/100. The result outcome was correct — Akhmat did win — though the scoreline was considerably more dramatic than anticipated. The prediction underestimated Makhachkala's threat on the break and the sheer volatility of the occasion, with both teams finding the net multiple times rather than the tight, low-scoring affair our model projected. Still, the directional forecast held firm.

Key Takeaways

• Cherchesov's half-time changes were decisive, reshaping Akhmat's momentum and ultimately delivering the match-winner in Keliano.
• Sundukov's contribution was double-edged for Makhachkala — a goal scored and a crucial yellow card collected in stoppage time, leaving him one booking away from suspension.
• Akhmat's statistical dominance (possession, total shots, key passes) ultimately reflected correctly in the result, even if the path to victory was anything but straightforward.
• The own goal from Alarcón Mendoza at a pivotal moment proved a turning point that Makhachkala could not recover from despite pushing late.