Al Ahli 3–1 Al Hazm | Pro League | 11 September 2026

Result Summary

Al Ahli recovered from an early shock to claim a commanding 3–1 victory over Al Hazm at home in the Saudi Pro League. Despite conceding inside two minutes, Marino Pusic's side showed composure and quality to turn the game around convincingly, with Ivan Toney and Francisco Trincão doing the damage in a dominant display.

Match Analysis

The opening exchanges were anything but comfortable for Al Ahli. Ahmed Al-Nakhli struck early — just two minutes in — with a left-foot finish assisted by Elton Acolatse, catching the home defence flat-footed and handing Al Hazm a surprising lead. It was the kind of start that can unsettle even the most organised sides, and for a brief period, Jalel Kadri's team looked capable of causing an upset.

However, Al Ahli's quality soon asserted itself. The equaliser came on 21 minutes, when Francisco Trincão converted with his left foot from an Ivan Toney assist — a combination that underlined the attacking quality available to Pusic's squad. From that point, Al Ahli controlled large portions of the contest, as the statistics reflect: 51% possession, 89 attacks to Al Hazm's 84, and a highly impressive 8 shots on target compared to just 3 for the visitors.

The pivotal moment arrived right on the stroke of half-time, when Ivan Toney struck himself on 45 minutes — again with his left foot — to give Al Ahli a 2–1 lead heading into the break. That goal effectively settled the contest mentally, shifting the momentum decisively in favour of the hosts.

Al Hazm arrived for the second half with changes, introducing Mory Konate and Amir Sayoud at the break, and Sultan Tanker was booked on 46 minutes for a foul. Yet Al Hazm struggled to meaningfully threaten — their 10 shots off target and limited dangerous attack count told the story of a side that created volume without precision. Al Ahli's backline, anchored by Merih Demiral and Roger Ibañez da Silva, rarely looked troubled after the restart.

A VAR decision involving Ivan Toney on 81 minutes added a layer of drama late in the game, though the result was never seriously in doubt. Al Ahli's substitutes — including Firas Albirakan and Rayane Hamidou — helped see the game home professionally, with 86% passing accuracy reflecting the hosts' technical composure throughout.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–0 Al Ahli win, with a 73% probability assigned to a home victory and a confidence rating of 70/100. The winner prediction proved correct — Al Ahli did win, and did so with authority. The scoreline of 3–1 exceeded the predicted margin slightly, with Al Hazm's early goal adding an unexpected narrative twist. Nevertheless, the underlying statistics — Al Ahli's shot dominance, passing efficiency, and attacking volume — were fully consistent with what our model anticipated.

Key Takeaways

• Ivan Toney was the match's standout performer, contributing a goal and an assist in a commanding individual display.
• Al Ahli's ability to respond immediately after conceding speaks to the mental resilience Pusic has instilled in the squad.
• Al Hazm showed early promise through Ahmed Al-Nakhli's opener, but a lack of clinical finishing (only 3 shots on target from 18 total) ultimately proved costly.
• With 18 key passes and an 86% passing success rate, Al Ahli demonstrated the technical foundations of a genuine title contender.