Al Ahli
Al Ahli
4 vs 1

Pro League · Matchday

2026-10-22 18:00:00 · 02:00 · Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Al Khaleej
Al Khaleej

AI Predicted: 2-0|Actual: 4-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Al Ahli
AHL
2 - 0
Al Khaleej
KHA
66%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
70.0%Home
18.0%Draw
12.0%Away
72.7%Home
16.3%Draw
11.0%Away
**Al Ahli** enter this Pro League clash as clear favorites, bolstered by a dominant H2H record of 4 wins from the last 5 meetings against **Al Khaleej**, while the visitors are further weakened by the confirmed absence of Z. Al Hawsawi through cruciate ligament damage. Al Ahli's defensive solidity should prove decisive against a depleted Al Khaleej backline. AI pick: Al Ahli Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredAHL or Draw
88% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
58% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
60% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreIvan ToneyAlso: Abdullah Radif, Artem Bondarenko

Goal Probability

AHL KHA
0%
60%
0
15%
40%
1
56%
0%
2
29%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

70%
72%
-1.6%
18%
17%
+1.0%
12%
11%
+0.6%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3651.304.757.00-9.0%-14.5%-16.0%
PinnacleVALUE1.285.728.47-10.4%+3.0%+1.6%
1xbetVALUE1.265.949.05-11.8%+6.9%+8.6%
WilliamHill1.255.008.00-12.5%-10.0%-4.0%
BetfairVALUE1.295.508.50-9.7%-1.0%+2.0%
MacauslotVALUE1.225.508.40-14.6%-1.0%+0.8%
MansionBet1.325.207.70-7.6%-6.4%-7.6%
MelBetVALUE1.265.949.05-11.8%+6.9%+8.6%
DafabetVALUE1.345.608.00-6.2%+0.8%-4.0%
Marathonbet1.245.308.10-13.2%-4.6%-2.8%
Sbo1.274.666.28-11.1%-16.1%-24.6%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Al Ahli 4–1 Al Khaleej | Pro League | 22 October 2026

Result Summary

Al Ahli delivered a commanding home performance, dismantling Al Khaleej 4–1 in the Saudi Pro League to collect three points in convincing fashion. A disciplined first-half lead was extended emphatically after the break, with Al Khaleej's dismal afternoon compounded by a red card that left them chasing shadows in the final stages.


Match Analysis

Al Ahli set the tone early. Ivan Toney broke the deadlock in the 11th minute, powering home a header from an Eduard Spertsyan assist — a goal that also attracted a VAR review at the 13th minute before standing. The opening goal proved a fair reflection of the hosts' dominance, with Al Ahli registering 16 total shots to Al Khaleej's six, and an extraordinary 11 shots on target compared to just one for the visitors.

Al Khaleej grew increasingly frustrated as the half progressed, collecting three yellow cards before the break — Asiri in the 9th minute, Al Khabrani in the 23rd, and Joshua King at the end of first-half stoppage time. Both Asiri and King were subsequently withdrawn at half-time, a clear response from coach José Gomes to arrest the disciplinary slide.

The second half was where Al Ahli truly put the match to bed. Artem Bondarenko converted from the right foot in the 57th minute, assisted by Francisco Trincão, before Trincão turned from provider to scorer just four minutes later — slotting home with his left foot from a Toney lay-off. Three goals in the space of 17 second-half minutes signalled the contest was over.

The chaos continued for Al Khaleej in the 68th minute when M. Benegas was dismissed for violent conduct — a decision that went through VAR review — leaving the visitors to play out the final stages with ten men. Al Ahli's 60% possession and 87% successful pass accuracy (against Al Khaleej's 80%) illustrated how thoroughly coach Marino Pusic's side controlled the afternoon's tempo.

A late consolation from substitute Thamer Fathi Al Khaibri — a left-foot strike in the 87th minute assisted by Hussain Al-Eissa — gave Al Khaleej something to show for the evening, but it did little more than put a respectable coat of paint on a difficult scoreline.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–0 Al Ahli victory, backed by a 70% probability of a home win and a confidence rating of 66/100. The predicted winner was correct, though the margin of victory exceeded expectations. Al Khaleej's disciplinary issues and the numerical disadvantage after Benegas's red card accelerated the gulf that was already evident in the statistics — 114 Al Ahli attacks to 65 for the visitors and 61 dangerous attacks to 25 underscore how one-sided the contest was even before the dismissal.


Key Takeaways

  • Ivan Toney was the catalyst, scoring and assisting in a dominant display that illustrated his importance to Al Ahli's attacking structure.
  • Francisco Trincão influenced both Al Ahli's second and third goals — as provider and finisher — cementing his role as a key creative force.
  • Al Khaleej's four yellow cards and one red card point to a side that struggled to cope with Al Ahli's relentless attacking pressure and paid a heavy disciplinary price.
  • With an 11:1 shots-on-target ratio, Al Ahli's defensive solidity and attacking efficiency were on full display — a statement result as the Pro League season develops.

Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Al Ahli and Al Khaleej: Al Ahli 8W · 6D · Al Khaleej 0W.

8

6

0

Wed, May 20, 2026Al Khaleej1-4Al Ahli
Tue, Jan 20, 2026Al Ahli4-1Al Khaleej
Fri, Mar 7, 2025Al Ahli2-2Al Khaleej
Fri, Oct 18, 2024Al Khaleej0-3Al Ahli
Fri, Dec 29, 2023Al Ahli1-0Al Khaleej

Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej?

PredictNext's AI model favours Al Ahli with a 70% win probability — Al Ahli 70%, draw 18%, Al Khaleej 12%.

What is the predicted score for Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej?

The AI forecasts a 2-0 scoreline for Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej, generated with 66% model confidence.

Will Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej.

How accurate was the Al Ahli vs Al Khaleej prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-0; the match finished 4-1. The winner call was correct.

More Pro League AI Predictions