Antwerp 1–4 Sint-Truiden | Pro League | 30 August 2026

Result Summary

In a result that sent shockwaves through the Pro League, Sint-Truiden claimed a commanding 4–1 victory away at Antwerp, delivering one of the more surprising results of the early season. Despite Antwerp dominating possession and generating the greater volume of attacking play, Frédéric De Meyer's side were ruthlessly clinical, converting their opportunities when it mattered most in a second-half collapse from the hosts.

Match Analysis

Sint-Truiden drew first blood as early as the 9th minute, when Ryotaro Araki finished with a composed right-foot shot to give the visitors an early advantage. Antwerp, holding 58% possession throughout the contest and recording 121 attacks to Sint-Truiden's 82, dominated the statistical landscape without converting that dominance into goals. It was a performance that illustrated the dangerous gap between controlling a match and winning it.

Marvin Compper made a decisive double substitution at half-time, withdrawing Luca Schelfhout — who had been booked as early as the 2nd minute for a foul — and Luis Narh, introducing Maxime Busi and Snayder Vladimir Porozo Caicedo. The latter immediately justified his introduction when he headed home in the 58th minute to level proceedings, briefly raising hopes at the Bosuilstadion.

Those hopes were extinguished swiftly in a devastating 17-minute spell. Samed Baždar, introduced from the bench in the 61st minute, scored with a right-foot effort in the 73rd minute, assisted by Ryan Merlen, with the goal surviving a VAR check at the 74th minute. Just three minutes later, substitute Kaito Matsuzawa added a third with another right-foot finish, again set up by the industrious Merlen. Despite yellow cards for both Merlen (78') and Baždar (79') in the aftermath of the goals, Sint-Truiden remained composed. Baždar then completed the rout in stoppage time, slotting home with his left foot from an Ilias Sebaoui assist to seal an emphatic 4–1 scoreline.

The statistics tell a paradoxical story: Antwerp registered 18 total shots to Sint-Truiden's 19, matched them closely on shots on target (8 vs 7), and recorded a superior 84% passing accuracy compared to Sint-Truiden's 72%. Yet Sint-Truiden's 15 key passes to Antwerp's 10 underlines where the real efficiency gap lay — the visitors consistently created more dangerous opportunities from fewer possessions.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of a 1–1 draw proved incorrect. With a confidence rating of just 53/100 and a predicted home win probability of 40%, there was clear acknowledgment of uncertainty heading into this fixture. Sint-Truiden's 33% forecast probability reflected genuine threat, though the scale of their victory — particularly the clinical second-half display from substitutes — was beyond what the model anticipated. Antwerp's statistical dominance would ordinarily support a more favourable home outcome, but Sint-Truiden's counter-attacking efficiency rendered those metrics largely redundant on the day.

Key Takeaways

• Baždar's impact off the bench was decisive — two goals and a yellow card in under 30 minutes of action.
• Ryan Merlen's creativity (two assists before his booking) proved to be Sint-Truiden's most influential contribution.
• Antwerp's high possession, low return performance is a concern for Compper going forward.
• Sint-Truiden's ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter makes them a dangerous proposition despite the modest possession they typically hold.