Serie B · Matchday
2026-08-30 17:00:00 · 01:00 · Stadio Città di Arezzo
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 2-3
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 | -8.6% | -8.6% | -7.8% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 3.40 | 3.12 | 2.30 | +0.3% | -8.0% | -5.7% |
| 1xbet | 3.24 | 3.12 | 2.28 | -4.4% | -8.0% | -6.5% |
| WilliamHill | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.30 | -5.6% | -14.5% | -5.7% |
| bwin | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.30 | -8.6% | -5.6% | -5.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.43 | -11.5% | -11.5% | -0.4% |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.36 | -5.6% | -5.6% | -3.2% |
| MansionBet | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.24 | -7.1% | -7.1% | -8.2% |
| Sbo | 2.99 | 2.90 | 2.12 | -11.8% | -14.5% | -13.1% |
| 10Bet | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.28 | -7.1% | -7.1% | -6.5% |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.12 | 2.26 | -4.4% | -8.0% | -7.3% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Arezzo 2–3 Palermo | Serie B Match Analysis
Result Summary
Palermo secured a hard-fought three points at Arezzo on Sunday afternoon, winning 2–3 in a match that provided Serie B fans with precisely the kind of drama this division is renowned for. Filippo Inzaghi's side led twice through the opening exchanges of the second half, were then pegged back to 2–2 deep into the game, before Tommaso Augello's left-foot strike in the 90+4' minute settled the contest in the most dramatic of fashions.
Match Analysis
Palermo controlled the tempo from the outset, registering 57% ball possession and generating 85 attacks compared to Arezzo's 73. That territorial dominance translated into an early reward when Dennis Johnsen opened the scoring in the 21st minute, converting a right-foot shot after being set up by Hernani. The goal was well-constructed, and Palermo looked comfortable managing the match through the remainder of the first half, though Arezzo — who finished with 9 corners to Palermo's 4 — showed attacking intent of their own.
The second half began with Palermo quickly tightening their grip. Filippo Ranocchia doubled the lead on 55 minutes, converting a right-foot finish from a Johnsen assist, seemingly putting the match to bed. However, Arezzo responded almost immediately: Pietro Cianci headed home a Camillo Tavernelli assist on 60 minutes, and Christian Bucchi's side began to believe. Arezzo's growing threat was evident in their 15 total shots and 12 key passes, figures that underlined legitimate quality despite the territorial deficit.
The equaliser arrived on 74 minutes when Tavernelli returned the favour, drilling home a right-foot shot assisted by Cianci, completing a remarkable double combination between the two forwards and silencing Palermo momentarily. Palermo's Nahuel Estévez picked up a yellow card on 69 minutes for a foul — one of four bookings across the match — reflecting the growing intensity and physicality as the clock wound down.
Both sides made significant use of their benches in the final quarter, with Inzaghi introducing Alessandro Gabrielloni for Pohjanpalo late on, while Bucchi brought in Alberto Cerri and Emiliano Pattarello as Arezzo sought the win. Ultimately, it was Palermo who produced the decisive moment: Augello's cool finish in stoppage time ensured Inzaghi's men left Tuscany with all three points.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match analysis forecast a Palermo victory, assigning them a 41% probability — the highest of the three outcomes — against a home win probability of 29.5% and a draw at 29.5%. The prediction was marked correct, and the final result validated the assessment of Palermo as the stronger side. That said, a confidence rating of 53/100 appropriately reflected the competitive nature of this fixture; Arezzo pushed Palermo to the wire and looked capable of taking a point for long stretches of the second half.
Key Takeaways
- Palermo's winner came from a substitute area player, Augello, highlighting the importance of squad depth in Inzaghi's setup.
- The Cianci–Tavernelli partnership provided Arezzo with real quality in the second half, combining for both goals and demonstrating they can hurt any defence in Serie B.
- Despite the defeat, Arezzo's 9 corners and 15 total shots suggest Christian Bucchi's side will be competitive throughout the campaign.
- Palermo's 7 shots on target from 17 attempts underlined clinical efficiency when chances arrived — a hallmark of a well-organised Inzaghi side.
Arezzo vs Palermo — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Arezzo vs Palermo?
PredictNext's AI model favours Palermo with a 41% win probability — Arezzo 30%, draw 29%, Palermo 41%.
What is the predicted score for Arezzo vs Palermo?
The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Arezzo vs Palermo, generated with 53% model confidence.
Will Arezzo vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for under 2.5 goals in Arezzo vs Palermo.
How accurate was the Arezzo vs Palermo prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 2-3. The winner call was correct.