Auxerre
Auxerre
2 vs 1

Ligue 1 · Matchday

2026-09-20 13:00:00 · 21:00

Brest
Brest

AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 2-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Auxerre
AUX
1 - 2
Brest
BRE
55%
Confidence
Low Confidence
34.0%Home
27.0%Draw
39.0%Away
35.0%Home
27.1%Draw
37.8%Away
With a 38% win probability, **Brest** enter as slight favorites against **Auxerre**, whose home form has struggled to contain top-half opponents this season. The key matchup lies in Brest's dynamic wide press disrupting Auxerre's build-up play through midfield. AI pick: Brest Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Away
73% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
52% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?Yes
52% both teams score
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

Auxerre Brest
20%
15%
0
63%
60%
1
18%
25%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

34%
35%
-1.0%
27%
27%
+0.5%
39%
38%
+0.5%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Away Win

Polymarket Odds

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Match Report

Auxerre 2–1 Brest | Ligue 1 | 20 September 2026

Result Summary

William Still's Auxerre claimed a hard-fought home victory against Brest at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, overturning a first-half deficit to win 2–1. An early Pathé Mboup opener for Brest was cancelled out by Cameron Archer just after the break, before a Raphaël Marc Le Guen own goal in the 83rd minute sealed the points for the hosts in a dramatic finish.

Match Analysis

Brest came out of the blocks sharply, taking the lead in the 23rd minute when Pathé Mboup converted from a Joris Chotard assist, finishing with his right foot to give Julien Lachuer's side an early advantage. It looked like the visitors might be on course for a comfortable afternoon, but the statistics tell a different story about who was controlling the contest.

Auxerre dominated virtually every measurable category. The hosts held 52% possession, generated 102 attacks to Brest's 81, and recorded 44 dangerous attacks compared to just 29 from the visitors. With 11 total shots and 8 corners to Brest's 3, the pressure was clearly one-directional. It was, in many respects, a performance that warranted the result Auxerre ultimately secured.

William Still responded decisively at half-time, introducing Naouirou Ahamada and Romain Faivre as Auxerre immediately upped the tempo after the restart. The double substitution paid dividends almost instantly — Cameron Archer levelled in the 46th minute, finishing with his left foot from a Danny Namaso assist to restore parity right on the stroke of half-time's aftermath.

The game entered a tense phase, with Christ Makosso picking up a yellow card in the 73rd minute for a foul, followed by Brest's Kenny Lala being booked in the 82nd minute. Just one minute later, the match was effectively decided when Brest defender Raphaël Marc Le Guen turned the ball into his own net in the 83rd minute, gifting Auxerre a lead they would not relinquish. Despite a flurry of late Brest substitutions — including Mama Samba Baldé, Djylian N'Guessan, Lucas Tousart, Mathis Lainé, and Joseph Nonge Boende — Julien Lachuer's side could not find a way back.

Brest's struggles were reflected in their 6 shots off target against only 2 on target, a profligacy that ultimately proved costly when the pivotal own goal arrived.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast pointed towards a Brest away win (39% probability), with Auxerre's home win assessed at 34% — a prediction that proved incorrect. With a confidence rating of just 55/100, there was clearly uncertainty baked into the analysis, and Auxerre's territorial dominance throughout the match vindicated those who questioned whether Brest's early goal truly reflected the balance of play. The statistics strongly supported a home victory, even if the forecast leaned the other way.

Key Takeaways

  • Auxerre's half-time double substitution was a decisive tactical moment that shifted the match's momentum immediately.
  • Cameron Archer's equaliser just after the restart demonstrated the home side's attacking quality when given renewed impetus.
  • Brest's inability to hold the lead despite scoring first highlights a vulnerability — only 2 shots on target and an own goal conceded reflects an unconvincing defensive display.
  • William Still's Auxerre side showed resilience and territorial superiority, making this a well-deserved three points at home.

Auxerre vs Brest — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Auxerre vs Brest?

PredictNext's AI model favours Brest with a 39% win probability — Auxerre 34%, draw 27%, Brest 39%.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Brest?

The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Auxerre vs Brest, generated with 55% model confidence.

Will Auxerre vs Brest have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Auxerre vs Brest.

How accurate was the Auxerre vs Brest prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was incorrect.

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