
Serie B · Matchday
2026-08-22 19:00:00 · 03:00 · Stadio Ciro Vigorito

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AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 1-2
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Match Report
Benevento 1–2 Modena | Serie B | 22 August 2026
Result Summary
Modena claimed a hard-fought victory at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito, overturning a first-half deficit to defeat Benevento 1–2. Francesco Paolo Salvemini gave the hosts the lead with a header on 26 minutes, but second-half substitute Simone Santoro and forward Giuseppe Caso turned the match on its head to seal three points for Daniele Galloppa's side.
Match Analysis
Benevento started the brighter of the two sides, and their opening goal reflected a well-worked move. Mattia Maita provided the assist, and Salvemini converted with a header in the 26th minute to send the home crowd into good spirits. The hosts' dominance in the first half was reflected in their statistics — 16 total shots compared to Modena's 13, and an impressive 12 key passes against Modena's 6 — suggesting Benevento were creating the more threatening openings throughout much of the contest.
However, the narrative shifted dramatically with Modena's double substitution on 63 minutes, when Santoro replaced Pedro Mendes and Stênio Zanetti Toledo came on for Antonio Imputato. The impact was immediate. Just two minutes after his introduction, Santoro levelled the tie with a composed left-foot shot on 65 minutes, instantly energising Galloppa's team and altering the momentum of the match entirely.
Modena then pressed their advantage. Giuseppe Caso struck on 76 minutes with another left-foot finish to put the visitors ahead for the first time, capping what was a decisive 13-minute swing in the game. Benevento's attempts to respond were hampered despite their flurry of late changes — coach Antonio Floro Flores introduced Pietro Saio, Angelo Talia, Guglielmo Mignani, Emanuele Schimmenti, and Leonardo Sernicola from the bench, but could not find an equaliser.
On a disciplinary note, Stênio Zanetti Toledo was cautioned on 74 minutes for dissent, while Alessandro Bianco was booked for time-wasting on 81 minutes — both yellow cards reflecting the growing tension in the closing stages. Benevento's Leonardo Sernicola, introduced as a substitute, also received a yellow card on 85 minutes for a foul.
Despite Benevento's greater volume of attempts — 8 corners and 12 shots off target — Modena's efficiency told the real story. The visitors registered 4 shots on target to Benevento's 3, demonstrating a clinical edge that ultimately proved decisive. Modena also generated 85 attacks to Benevento's 67, showing how the balance of play tilted after the interval.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast of a 1–1 draw proved incorrect, with confidence rated at a modest 50/100 — a reflection of the genuine uncertainty surrounding this fixture. The predicted home win probability of 43% and the away win forecast of 29% pointed toward Benevento as the likelier winners, yet Modena's second-half resilience and substitution impact rendered those projections redundant. The match ultimately hinged on a ten-minute spell that our model could not foresee.
Key Takeaways
- Substitutions proved decisive: Modena's double change on 63 minutes directly led to both goals, a reminder of how impactful squad depth can be in Serie B.
- Benevento's wastefulness: With 16 shots and only 3 on target, the hosts struggled to translate territorial dominance into clean chances.
- Caso and Santoro were the difference-makers, both scoring with left-foot efforts to deliver Galloppa's side a well-earned away win.
- Benevento will need to sharpen their cutting edge if they are to make their possession and creativity count in future fixtures.
Benevento vs Modena Head-to-Head
Last 2 meetings between Benevento and Modena: Benevento 1W · 1D · Modena 0W.
1
Benevento wins
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Draws
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Modena wins
Benevento vs Modena — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Benevento vs Modena?
PredictNext's AI model favours Benevento with a 43% win probability — Benevento 43%, draw 28%, Modena 29%.
What is the predicted score for Benevento vs Modena?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Benevento vs Modena, generated with 50% model confidence.
Will Benevento vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for under 2.5 goals in Benevento vs Modena.
How accurate was the Benevento vs Modena prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 1-2. The winner call was incorrect.