Serie A · Matchday
2026-07-22 00:00:00 · 08:00
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 2-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 | -1.0% | -7.6% | -7.6% |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.45 | 3.31 | -0.6% | -3.4% | -7.3% |
| 1xbet | 2.26 | 3.36 | 3.43 | -0.6% | -5.9% | -4.0% |
| WilliamHill | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 | -3.2% | -10.4% | -13.2% |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -7.6% | -13.2% | -10.4% |
| bwin | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -9.0% |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.35 | -6.7% | -4.8% | -6.2% |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -9.0% |
| 10Bet | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.05 | -2.3% | -4.8% | -14.6% |
| CloudBet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.25 | -1.0% | -4.8% | -9.0% |
| Macauslot | 2.15 | 3.38 | 2.72 | -5.4% | -5.4% | -23.8% |
| Cashpoint | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.23 | -5.4% | -3.4% | -9.6% |
| Sbo | 1.99 | 3.16 | 3.23 | -12.4% | -11.5% | -9.6% |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.50 | 3.35 | -3.6% | -2.0% | -6.2% |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 | -1.0% | -4.8% | -13.2% |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 | -3.2% | -10.4% | -13.2% |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.32 | 3.22 | -4.5% | -7.0% | -9.8% |
| Coral | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -9.0% |
| Interwetten | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.15 | -1.0% | -6.2% | -11.8% |
| MansionBet | 2.06 | 3.45 | 3.30 | -9.4% | -3.4% | -7.6% |
| MelBet | 2.21 | 3.38 | 3.28 | -2.8% | -5.4% | -8.2% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Botafogo Edge Out Santos in Late Drama
Botafogo 2–1 Santos | Série A | 22 July 2026
Result Summary
Botafogo claimed a hard-fought three points at home against Santos, with Kadir Barria's stoppage-time strike in the 90+5' minute sealing a dramatic 2–1 victory. It was a match that swung momentum multiple times, required VAR intervention, and produced six bookings across both sides — a fittingly tense affair between two clubs with genuine Série A ambitions.
Match Analysis
Botafogo broke the deadlock just before half-time in the 41st minute, with an assist from Kauan Toledo setting up the opener via a right-foot finish. The goal was subject to a VAR check in the 42nd minute, though the decision ultimately stood — keeping Botafogo's advantage intact heading into the interval.
The first half was also punctuated by a flurry of cards. Victor Hugo Custódio de Melo Moura (Botafogo) and Thaciano (Santos) were both cautioned in quick succession in the 25th and 26th minutes for fouls, and Álvaro Martín Barreal along with Matheus Martins were booked in first-half stoppage time for separate arguments — setting a combative tone.
Santos responded positively after the break, drawing level through Álvaro Martín Barreal in the 57th minute with a composed left-foot finish. Ironically, the Argentine had already been booked before the interval, and his equaliser shifted the momentum firmly toward the visitors, who by that point had registered 22 total shots compared to Botafogo's 17, and held 52% of possession.
Santos made sweeping changes to push for a winner — five substitutions between the 54th and 71st minutes brought on Christian Gabriel Oliva Giménez, Ronielson da Silva Barbosa, Gabriel Morais Silva Bontempo, and Gabriel Vinicius Menino, among others. Botafogo responded with their own rotations, notably introducing Kadir Barria in the 77th minute in place of Kauan Toledo.
That substitution proved decisive. With the clock deep into injury time, Barria converted with a right-foot shot in the 90+5', sending the home side into celebration — though he was immediately cautioned for unsportsmanlike conduct following the goal. Nahuel Ferraresi Hernández had also been booked in the 78th minute, meaning Botafogo finished the game walking a fine disciplinary line.
Despite Santos' statistical superiority in shots — 9 on target to Botafogo's 7 and 14 key passes to 12 — Botafogo's 114 attacks to Santos' 94 and superior efficiency in the final moments proved the difference.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–1 draw, assigning a 44% probability to a Botafogo win and only 28% to either a draw or Santos victory. With a confidence rating of 59/100, this was acknowledged as a closely contested fixture — and that assessment of competitiveness proved accurate. However, the prediction outcome was incorrect, as Botafogo found late-game composure to convert a winner that the scoreline only partially reflects.
Key Takeaways
- Kadir Barria's impact from the bench was the defining factor — a substitute winning the game in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
- Santos were statistically dominant in attack but failed to convert their volume of chances into results.
- Botafogo's resilience under pressure, despite a disciplinary-heavy night, proved the difference between a point and three.
- Both teams' high foul counts and six bookings suggest this rivalry remains fiercely contested.
Botafogo vs Santos — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Santos?
PredictNext's AI model favours Botafogo with a 44% win probability — Botafogo 44%, draw 28%, Santos 28%.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Santos?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Botafogo vs Santos, generated with 59% model confidence.
Will Botafogo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Botafogo vs Santos.
How accurate was the Botafogo vs Santos prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was correct.