Bury
Bury
5 vs 1

FA Cup · Matchday

2026-09-19 14:00:00 · 22:00

Workington
Workington

AI Predicted: 2-0|Actual: 5-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Bury
BUR
2 - 0
Workington
WOR
53%
Confidence
Low Confidence
58.0%Home
22.5%Draw
19.5%Away
52.2%Home
24.2%Draw
23.6%Away
Bury hold a slight edge on home advantage and overall win probability in this FA Cup clash against Workington. The key battleground will be Bury's ability to control midfield and convert chances, as the narrow predicted margin suggests a tight, competitive contest. AI pick: Bury Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
81% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
52% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
52% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

Bury Workington
0%
45%
0
36%
55%
1
47%
0%
2
16%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

58%
52%
+5.8%
23%
24%
-1.7%
19%
24%
-4.1%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

Bury 5–1 Workington | FA Cup | 19 September 2026

Result Summary

Bury produced a commanding FA Cup performance at home, dismantling Workington with a 5–1 victory that was ultimately far more comfortable than the early stages suggested. Anthony Johnson's side fell behind in the opening exchanges but responded with authority, turning the tie on its head before half-time and then pulling clear with three further goals in the second half. William Barr's Workington will reflect on a chastening afternoon that exposed the gulf between the two sides on the day.

Match Analysis

Workington drew first blood, finding the net on 17 minutes to give themselves a surprise lead that briefly unsettled the home side. However, any hope of a cup upset was firmly extinguished by Bury's equaliser on 38 minutes, restoring parity before the break and shifting the momentum decisively toward the hosts.

The statistics tell a story of near-total Bury dominance. 59% possession against Workington's 41% allowed Johnson's side to dictate the tempo throughout, while their attacking output was particularly impressive — 24 shots in total, with 10 on target, compared to Workington's seven shots and five on target. The sheer volume of 114 attacks to Workington's 97, and 80 dangerous attacks to 57, illustrates how relentlessly Bury pressed for goals.

The second half was where the tie was truly settled. Goals at 59' and 64' — coming in quick succession — effectively ended the contest as a competitive fixture, and a fifth goal on 83 minutes added gloss to what was a thoroughly dominant display. Workington's discipline also wavered as the game progressed; they conceded nine fouls to Bury's four and were caught offside four times, suggesting their attempts to play a higher line were consistently undone by the home side's movement.

Bury's efficiency was particularly noteworthy. Despite registering 14 shots off target, they converted enough of their 10 on-target attempts to run out comfortable winners — a conversion rate that underlines the clinical edge they showed once ahead. Workington, by contrast, were unable to capitalise on their five shots on target beyond the early goal.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of a 2–0 Bury victory with a 58% probability of a home win proved directionally correct — Bury did win, validating the core prediction — though the margin of five goals exceeded the projected scoreline considerably. The relatively modest confidence rating of 53/100 reflected uncertainty, which was understandable given the cup context, but the home side's dominance across every statistical category suggests this result, if not its precise magnitude, was well founded. A correct outcome, even if the actual performance surpassed expectations.

Key Takeaways

  • Bury's second-half ruthlessness was the defining factor, with three goals after the break turning a tight contest into a rout.
  • Workington's early goal proved a false dawn; their inability to defend Bury's sustained pressure was ultimately their undoing.
  • The shot volume disparity (24 vs 7) highlights how one-sided the contest became once Bury found their rhythm.
  • Anthony Johnson will take considerable encouragement from a performance that delivered both goals and clean defensive discipline, conceding just the one early strike.
  • Workington and William Barr will need to regroup quickly, with lessons to learn from a heavy defeat in which their tactical discipline — evidenced by four offsides and nine fouls — was found wanting.

Bury vs Workington — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Bury vs Workington?

PredictNext's AI model favours Bury with a 58% win probability — Bury 58%, draw 23%, Workington 19%.

What is the predicted score for Bury vs Workington?

The AI forecasts a 2-0 scoreline for Bury vs Workington, generated with 53% model confidence.

Will Bury vs Workington have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Bury vs Workington.

How accurate was the Bury vs Workington prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-0; the match finished 5-1. The winner call was correct.

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