Serie A · Matchday
2026-07-22 00:00:00 · 08:00 · Arena Condá
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 0-2|Actual: 0-4
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.48 | -12.5% | +1.8% | -5.3% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 7.17 | 4.39 | 1.45 | -10.4% | +3.2% | -7.2% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 7.21 | 4.46 | 1.47 | -9.9% | +4.8% | -5.9% |
| WilliamHill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | -18.8% | -6.0% | -7.8% |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | -12.5% | -1.3% | -7.8% |
| bwinVALUE | 6.75 | 4.40 | 1.47 | -15.6% | +3.4% | -5.9% |
| UnibetVALUE | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.41 | 0.0% | +5.7% | -9.8% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.48 | -18.8% | +3.4% | -5.3% |
| Macauslot | 5.90 | 4.15 | 1.41 | -26.2% | -2.5% | -9.8% |
| DafabetVALUE | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.48 | -12.5% | +5.7% | -5.3% |
| MelBetVALUE | 7.10 | 4.40 | 1.45 | -11.3% | +3.4% | -7.2% |
| CoralVALUE | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.48 | -18.8% | +3.4% | -5.3% |
| CloudBetVALUE | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.43 | -12.5% | +1.0% | -8.5% |
| Sbo | 6.60 | 4.09 | 1.41 | -17.5% | -3.9% | -9.8% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 6.90 | 4.30 | 1.44 | -13.7% | +1.0% | -7.8% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 6.30 | 4.30 | 1.45 | -21.3% | +1.0% | -7.2% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Flamengo Cruise to Emphatic Victory in Chapecó
Flamengo delivered a commanding 4-0 demolition of Chapecoense in their Serie A encounter on July 22, 2026, leaving little doubt about the gulf in quality between the two sides. Leonardo Jardim's men were clinical when it mattered most, converting their opportunities with ruthless efficiency to claim all three points in convincing fashion.
Match Analysis
Flamengo controlled the tempo from the outset, and the statistics tell a clear story: 63% ball possession against Chapecoense's 37%, combined with a superior pass success rate of 90% versus 85%, underlined Rio's dominance in the midfield battle. Despite Chapecoense generating a surprisingly high 13 total shots to Flamengo's 10, the visiting side was far more dangerous in front of goal, registering 6 shots on target compared to Chapecoense's 3.
The deadlock was broken in the 26th minute when Pedro Guilherme Abreu dos Santos finished smartly from a Bruno Henrique assist, giving Flamengo a deserved lead. The hosts' misery was compounded just before half-time when Rafael Thyere de Albuquerque Marques turned the ball into his own net in the 38th minute, effectively ending the contest as a competitive fixture before the interval.
Flamengo's momentum was only briefly disrupted by the half-time whistle. Lorran Lucas Pereira de Sousa, introduced as a substitute in the 33rd minute for Gonzalo Plata, made an immediate impact with a left-foot finish just three minutes into the second half to make it 3-0 in the 48th minute — a textbook example of a substitute justifying a coach's decision.
Chapecoense's frustration was evident when Bruno de Jesus Pacheco was booked for a foul in the 53rd minute, and Rafael Lacerda's double substitution at the hour mark — bringing on Sebastião Ênio Santos de Almeida and Bruno Matias dos Santos — failed to change the dynamic. The hosts' 43 dangerous attacks from Flamengo versus 36 from Chapecoense further illustrates how the visitors maintained their threat throughout.
Pedro completed his brace deep into the match, heading home an 86th-minute goal from Samuel Lino's assist to put the final gloss on a dominant display. It was a fitting end to a professional team performance.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 0-2 Flamengo victory, with a 64% probability assigned to an away win. While the correct outcome was predicted — earning a CORRECT result — the actual margin of 4-0 significantly exceeded our modelled scoreline. The confidence rating of 59/100 reflected appropriate caution, and the away win probability proved well-founded. Flamengo's clinical edge and Chapecoense's defensive vulnerability, particularly highlighted by the own goal, pushed the margin beyond what our model anticipated.
Key Takeaways
- Pedro Guilherme Abreu dos Santos was the standout performer, scoring twice and demonstrating his value as a focal point in Flamengo's attack.
- Lorran Lucas Pereira de Sousa's immediate impact from the bench underscores Flamengo's impressive squad depth under Jardim.
- Chapecoense's 13 total shots and 5 corners suggest they were not entirely passive, yet their inability to convert — alongside the own goal — highlights defensive and clinical deficiencies that will concern coach Rafael Lacerda.
- Flamengo's 90% passing accuracy and control of dangerous attacks mark them as a genuine Serie A title contender.
Chapecoense vs Flamengo Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Chapecoense and Flamengo: Chapecoense 2W · 3D · Flamengo 11W.
2
Chapecoense wins
3
Draws
11
Flamengo wins
Chapecoense vs Flamengo — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
PredictNext's AI model favours Flamengo with a 64% win probability — Chapecoense 13%, draw 23%, Flamengo 64%.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
The AI forecasts a 0-2 scoreline for Chapecoense vs Flamengo, generated with 59% model confidence.
Will Chapecoense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in Chapecoense vs Flamengo.
How accurate was the Chapecoense vs Flamengo prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 0-2; the match finished 0-4. The winner call was correct.