Serie A · Matchday
2026-10-24 22:30:00 · 06:30 · Arena Condá
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 0-2|Actual: 2-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.83 | -9.8% | -8.2% | -6.7% |
| 1xbet | 4.22 | 3.63 | 1.88 | -7.2% | -2.0% | -4.1% |
| WilliamHill | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.85 | -12.0% | -10.9% | -5.6% |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.85 | -12.0% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
| bwin | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.85 | -7.6% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
| Ladbrokes | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.85 | -7.6% | -5.5% | -5.6% |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.60 | 1.85 | -5.4% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
| MelBet | 4.18 | 3.58 | 1.87 | -8.0% | -3.3% | -4.6% |
| Coral | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.85 | -7.6% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 3.52 | 1.83 | -9.8% | -5.0% | -6.7% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Chapecoense 2–1 Fluminense | Série A | 24 October 2026
Result Summary
In a stunning upset at home, Chapecoense defeated Fluminense 2–1 in a Série A clash that defied both expectations and the statistical weight of the match. Despite being thoroughly outplayed in terms of possession and volume of chances, Chapecoense showed clinical efficiency when it mattered most, converting their opportunities to claim all three points against one of Brazil's storied clubs.
Match Analysis
From the opening whistle, Fluminense asserted themselves as the dominant force. Fluminense controlled 74% of the ball compared to Chapecoense's 26%, and their attacking intent was clear — 139 attacks to Chapecoense's 72, with 70 dangerous attacks versus only 34 for the hosts. Their passing accuracy of 92% far exceeded Chapecoense's 77%, and they registered 16 total shots to Chapecoense's modest 6.
Yet the scoreboard told a very different story.
Yannick Bolasie Yala broke the deadlock in just the 9th minute, finishing a right-footed effort assisted by Giovanni Augusto, giving the hosts an early lead that belied the pattern of play to come. Fluminense responded with sustained pressure and were rewarded in the 30th minute when Cláudio Rodrigues Gomes levelled with a right-footed finish, assisted by Hulk — a well-constructed equaliser that reflected their territorial dominance.
The decisive moment arrived early in the second half. A halftime change proved pivotal for coach Rafael dos Santos Lacerda, as substitute Túlio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira — introduced at the break for Maurício Garcez — immediately made his mark. Just 11 minutes into the second period, his assist found Giovanni Augusto, who turned provider-turned-scorer to rifle home a right-footed finish in the 56th minute and restore Chapecoense's advantage.
Chapecoense's disciplinary record showed a degree of strain under pressure — Camilo Reijers de Olivera was booked in the 37th minute and Yago Felipe da Costa Rocha picked up a yellow in the 57th minute — but coach Lacerda managed the tension carefully through a series of substitutions in the final quarter, introducing Bruno Matias dos Santos, Kevin Federik Ramírez Dutra, Rafael Thyere de Albuquerque Marques, and Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Junior to shore up the result.
Fluminense, under coach Marco Aurelio De Oliveira, threw on Luciano Federico Acosta, Riquelme Felipe Silva de Almeida, Rodrigo Castillo, Germán Ezequiel Cano, and Renê Rodrigues Martins in search of a leveller, but despite their statistical superiority — 4 shots on target and 5 key passes — they couldn't find a way through. Guilherme Antonio Arana Lopes was booked in stoppage time for a foul as frustrations boiled over.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast projected a Fluminense win (51% probability), with the home side given just a 22% chance of victory. With a confidence rating of 62/100, the prediction ultimately proved incorrect. While the underlying data — possession, shot volume, dangerous attacks — validated the logic behind favouring Fluminense, football's capacity to reward efficiency over dominance was on full display here. Chapecoense's 3 shots on target versus Fluminense's 4 produced a 2–1 home win, a reminder that conversion rate and tactical resilience can override raw statistical superiority.
Key Takeaways
- Clinical finishing wins games: Chapecoense managed just 6 shots but converted 2, while Fluminense's 16 attempts yielded only 1 goal.
- Impact substitutions matter: Túlio Eduardo's introduction at halftime directly led to the winning goal within minutes of the second half.
- Statistical dominance doesn't guarantee results, a lesson
Chapecoense vs Fluminense Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Chapecoense and Fluminense: Chapecoense 6W · 4D · Fluminense 5W.
6
Chapecoense wins
4
Draws
5
Fluminense wins
Chapecoense vs Fluminense — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chapecoense vs Fluminense?
PredictNext's AI model favours Fluminense with a 51% win probability — Chapecoense 22%, draw 27%, Fluminense 51%.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?
The AI forecasts a 0-2 scoreline for Chapecoense vs Fluminense, generated with 62% model confidence.
Will Chapecoense vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Chapecoense vs Fluminense.
How accurate was the Chapecoense vs Fluminense prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 0-2; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was incorrect.