Cremonese 0–1 Juve Stabia | Serie B | 24 October 2026

Result Summary

In a match that defied the statistical narrative, Juve Stabia claimed a hard-fought 1–0 victory at Cremonese, securing all three points through Marco Bellich's 24th-minute strike, assisted by Fabio Maistro. Pietro De Giorgio's side executed a disciplined defensive performance to absorb considerable pressure from Fabio Pecchia's hosts, ultimately walking away with a result that few would have anticipated given how the numbers played out across 90 minutes.

Match Analysis

The defining moment arrived early. Just 24 minutes into the contest, Bellich converted with a right-foot shot following Maistro's assist, giving Juve Stabia the lead they would never relinquish. From that point forward, the match became a prolonged test of Cremonese's ability to break down a resolute visiting defence — a test they ultimately failed.

The statistics tell a tale of dominance without reward for the hosts. Cremonese enjoyed 56% possession, generated 127 attacks to Juve Stabia's 82, and registered 69 dangerous attacks compared to 41. They managed 20 total shots, six of which were on target, while Juve Stabia mustered only 13 shots and a mere two on target. Key passes also favoured Cremonese significantly — 19 to 11 — yet none of it translated into an equaliser.

A significant moment arrived just before half-time, when a VAR review involving Cremonese's Marco Nasti at the 40-minute mark disrupted the hosts' rhythm, though no goal resulted from the intervention. Nasti was later substituted off in the 59th minute, with Manuel De Luca introduced in his place as Pecchia sought a spark.

The second half brought a flurry of changes as Cremonese chased the game. Salvatore Elia, De Luca, Alessandro Vogliacco, Federico Bonazzoli, and Milan Đurić all came on in an increasingly desperate pursuit of an equaliser, while Juve Stabia made their own calculated adjustments — bringing on Nermin Karic, Leonardo Candellone, Romeo Sandrucci, Matteo Baldi, and Saná Fernandes to shore up their lead and manage the clock. Candellone's yellow card in the 90+4' for time wasting reflected precisely that strategy — protecting a precious advantage at all costs.

Despite Cremonese's passing accuracy of 86% and sustained pressure, Ante Vuković and the Juve Stabia backline held firm, frustrating a home side that created volume but lacked the clinical edge to convert.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast leaned toward a Cremonese home victory, assigning a 50% probability to that outcome against a 23% chance of a Juve Stabia win. With a confidence rating of just 55/100, there was acknowledged uncertainty — and that uncertainty proved well-founded. The away side's defensive resilience and early goal proved to be factors our model underweighted. The prediction was incorrect, and this result serves as a reminder that Serie B's competitive balance can produce outcomes that contradict even statistically supported forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• Clinical efficiency beats statistical dominance: Juve Stabia's two shots on target yielded one goal; Cremonese's six produced none.
• Bellich's early goal was decisive, setting the tactical context for the entire match.
• Maistro's assist before his substitution highlighted his importance to Juve Stabia's attacking play.
• Cremonese's inability to convert chances — despite 20 shots and 69 dangerous attacks — raises questions about their finishing that Pecchia will need to address.
• Juve Stabia's game management in the closing stages, though it drew a late booking, was ultimately effective.