CSKA Moskva 2–1 Baltika Kaliningrad | Russian Premier League | 24 July 2026

Result Summary

CSKA Moskva secured a hard-fought home victory over Baltika Kaliningrad, coming from behind to win 2–1 in what proved to be a dramatic and incident-packed afternoon at the VEB Arena. Despite conceding inside the opening minute, Dmitriy Igdisamov's side demonstrated resilience and dominance across the full 90-plus minutes to claim all three points.

Match Analysis

The game could scarcely have opened in more chaotic fashion. Chinonso Offor Nnamdi struck in the 1st minute, finishing with his right foot from a Nathan Gassama assist, to stun the home faithful and hand Baltika Kaliningrad an early lead. It was a sucker-punch that few anticipated, and it briefly rewrote the narrative of what had been forecast as a comfortable CSKA afternoon.

CSKA, however, responded by imposing themselves on the contest. The statistics paint a clear picture of their dominance: 65% ball possession, 113 attacks to Baltika's 75, and an 83% successful pass percentage against Baltika's 66% tell the story of a team firmly in control of the tempo. Yet the breakthrough came from an unlikely source. On 33 minutes, Eduardo Antonio Anderson Gomez deflected the ball into his own net, drawing the hosts level and shifting momentum entirely.

The turnaround was completed just three minutes later. Kirill Glebov converted on 36 minutes, assisted by Danil Krugovoy, to give CSKA a 2–1 lead that they would not relinquish. The two-goal swing in a matter of minutes — both coming from a Baltika defensive collapse — proved decisive.

Three VAR reviews added further intrigue: decisions involving Danila Kozlov (29'), Chinonso Offor Nnamdi (54'), and Luciano Emilio Gondou Zanelli (59') kept both benches on edge, though none altered the scoreline. Baltika's Andrey Mendel picked up a yellow card on 64 minutes for a foul, and was subsequently substituted off at the 69-minute mark alongside Maksim Petrov, with Ivan Belikov and Tenton Yenne introduced in a bid to find an equaliser. CSKA also rotated in the latter stages, bringing on Henrique Fabiano do Carmo and Tamerlan Musaev at 76 minutes, while Imran Firov entered for Matija Popović on 84 minutes. João Victor Da Silva Marcelino received a yellow card deep in stoppage time for time wasting, reflecting CSKA's determination to see the result out.

Baltika's 8 shots off target — compared to CSKA's 4 — underlines their wastefulness when chances did arrive, and their 17 fouls committed to CSKA's 11 highlights the physical difficulty they faced in disrupting the hosts' rhythm.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 CSKA Moskva win, with a 48% probability assigned to the home side and a moderate confidence score of 54/100. While the exact scoreline differed — the actual result being 2–1, and notably featuring an early Baltika lead — the predicted winner was correct. The underlying logic of CSKA's home superiority held firm, even if the path to victory was considerably more turbulent than anticipated.

Takeaways

• CSKA's depth and dominance in possession and attacking metrics proved decisive, even after a poor defensive start.
• Baltika's early goal was ultimately undermined by their own defensive errors — the own goal from Anderson Gomez proved a critical turning point.
• Glebov's 36th-minute winner was clinical when it mattered most, though he was rotated off at 76 minutes, suggesting squad management remains a factor.
• Baltika will need to be far more resolute defensively if they are to compete consistently at this level.