CSKA Moskva
CSKA Moskva
3 vs 2

Premier League · Matchday

2026-08-22 17:15:00 · 01:15

Lokomotiv Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 3-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

CSKA Moskva
CSK
1 - 0
Lokomotiv Moskva
LOK
56%
Confidence
Low Confidence
51.0%Home
25.0%Draw
24.0%Away
49.6%Home
25.3%Draw
25.1%Away
CSKA Moskva enter this Moscow derby as narrow favorites, boosted by a strong H2H record — winning three of the last five meetings outright — while Lokomotiv Moskva face a significant blow with M. Shchetinin suspended following a red card. Midfield control will be decisive, and Lokomotiv's reduced options in that zone could hand CSKA the territorial advantage they need to grind out a result. AI pick: CSKA Moskva Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
76% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
58% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
60% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
13%
59%
0
50%
41%
1
37%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

51%
49%
+1.6%
25%
26%
-1.1%
24%
25%
-0.6%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

Polymarket Odds

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Match Report

CSKA Moskva 3–2 Lokomotiv Moskva | Russian Premier League | 22 August 2026

Result Summary

A pulsating Moscow derby ended in favour of the hosts as CSKA Moskva edged out Lokomotiv Moskva 3–2 at home. Dmitriy Igdisamov's side demonstrated considerable resilience and attacking depth, overcoming an early deficit to claim all three points in what proved to be a fiercely contested affair.


Match Analysis

Lokomotiv made a confident start and were rewarded when Aleksandr Silyanov broke the deadlock in the 22nd minute, converting with a right-foot finish following an assist from Zelimkhan Bakaev. Mikhail Galaktionov's side looked composed and briefly threatened to control the tempo of the encounter.

However, CSKA responded swiftly. Just seven minutes later, Luciano Emilio Gondou Zanelli levelled with a header, assisted by Matvey Kislyak, to restore parity before the break. That goal was also subject to a VAR review at the 30-minute mark, though it was ultimately allowed to stand — a pivotal moment that shaped the rest of the contest. Gerzino Nyamsi picked up a yellow card deep into first-half stoppage time for a foul, a sign of mounting Lokomotiv frustration.

The second half saw CSKA take control. The numbers tell much of the story: the hosts registered 23 total shots to Lokomotiv's 12, with an impressive 10 shots on target compared to just 3 for the visitors. Their dominance in attacks (94 vs 78) and dangerous attacks (63 vs 41) reflected a side that pressed the advantage relentlessly.

Kirill Danilov added a crucial second goal in the 50th minute with a left-foot finish, putting CSKA in the driving seat. The third followed in the 68th minute when Matheus Alves Nascimento slotted home from a Milan Gajić assist, seemingly putting the result beyond doubt.

Lokomotiv refused to capitulate. A wave of substitutions injected energy — most notably the introduction of Sergey Pinyaev, who rewarded Galaktionov's decision immediately. Just five minutes after coming on, Pinyaev headed home from a Vadim Rakov assist in the 75th minute to set up a tense finale. Rakov himself had only arrived at the start of the second half, making his contribution all the more significant.

The closing stages were nervy, with Danilov and Gondou Zanelli both picking up yellow cards as CSKA worked to protect their lead. CSKA's bench was busy in the final ten minutes, with five substitutions made between the 71st and 82nd minute to manage the game home. CSKA's 54% possession and 80% successful pass rate underlined their overall authority, even if Lokomotiv's late push made for an uncomfortable finish.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 CSKA Moskva victory, with the home side given a 51% probability of winning. While the final scoreline was more dramatic than anticipated, the predicted outcome — a CSKA win — proved correct, rewarding the analysis with a successful call. The confidence level of 56/100 reflected a competitive fixture, and the match lived up to that billing entirely.


Key Takeaways

  • CSKA's attacking output was emphatic, with 23 shots and 10 on target underlining their superiority across large portions of the game.
  • Gondou Zanelli was central to the victory, contributing a goal and earning a VAR review — his performance encapsulated CSKA's attacking intent.
  • Lokomotiv's second-half substitutions created genuine jeopardy, with Pinyaev's header demonstrating the quality available from the bench.
  • Despite the narrow margin at the final whistle, CSKA's statistical dominance suggests the right team won.

CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?

PredictNext's AI model favours CSKA Moskva with a 51% win probability — CSKA Moskva 51%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moskva 24%.

What is the predicted score for CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva, generated with 56% model confidence.

Will CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva.

How accurate was the CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.

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