Fredrikstad 2–1 HamKam | Eliteserien | 16 May 2026

Result Summary

Fredrikstad claimed a hard-fought three points at home against HamKam, winning 2–1 in a match that went to the wire. Simen Rafn's header just before half-time and a fortunate own goal from Martin Gjone appeared to have secured the points for the hosts, only for substitute Anders Trondsen to pull one back deep into stoppage time. The victory, however, belonged to Andreas Hagen's side, who defended their lead under significant late pressure.

Match Analysis

The statistics tell a fascinating story. HamKam controlled the ball for 59% of the match compared to Fredrikstad's 41%, and registered 11 total shots to the hosts' 9, with 5 shots on target versus 4. On paper, Thomas Myhre's side were the more productive team with the ball — yet it was Fredrikstad who made their moments count.

The opening goal came in the 36th minute, when Simen Rafn met a delivery from Rocco Shein with a decisive header to put the home side in front. The lead was then doubled in first-half stoppage time through a moment of misfortune for the visitors — Martin Gjone turning the ball into his own net to make it 2–0 on the stroke of half-time. It was a damaging blow for HamKam, who had been enjoying the better of the possession statistics up to that point.

HamKam made tactical changes at the break, introducing Markus Johnsgård for Henrik Udahl, followed by a double substitution in the 58th minute that brought on Snorre Strand Nilsen and Anders Trondsen. Those changes gradually shifted the momentum. Fredrikstad picked up three yellow cards in the second half — Fredrik Holmé for a foul in the 64th minute, Martin Børsheim for time wasting in the 69th, and substitute Eirik Julius Granaas for simulation in the 87th — suggesting the hosts were under the cosh and managing the game by any means necessary.

Fredrikstad's own substitutions in the 71st and 77th minutes, including bringing on Benjamin Thoresen Faraas, Samuel Holm, and Granaas, were aimed at shoring things up. Despite their efforts, Anders Trondsen found the net with a left-foot shot in the 90+7th minute to give HamKam a lifeline that proved too late. The hosts held on as Max Mattias Nilsson came on in the 90+4th minute to see out the clock.

Fredrikstad's 55 dangerous attacks to HamKam's 43 and their clinical finishing in the first half ultimately proved to be the decisive factor despite conceding territorial dominance for large spells.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast anticipated a 1–1 draw, placing a 27% probability on that outcome while giving Fredrikstad a 47.5% chance of victory. With a confidence rating of just 56/100, the model acknowledged considerable uncertainty in this fixture. In the end, the prediction was incorrect — Fredrikstad's two-goal lead before half-time was the decisive factor that the model did not anticipate. The home win probability of 47.5% was actually the highest rated outcome in our analysis, meaning the correct winner was identified as the most likely result, even if the specific scoreline prediction missed the mark.

Key Takeaways

• Fredrikstad's first-half ruthlessness was the difference — two goals before the break despite being outpossessed.
• HamKam's second-half improvements were real but came too late, culminating in Trondsen's consolation in the seventh minute of stoppage time.
• Three yellow cards for Fredrikstad in the second half highlight the pressure they absorbed after the break.
• Andreas Hagen's side demonstrated strong defensive resilience when protecting a lead, despite HamKam's superior ball retention.