Lillestrøm
Lillestrøm
4 vs 0

Eliteserien · Matchday

2026-05-03 12:30:00 · 20:30

Sarpsborg 08
Sarpsborg 08

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 4-0

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Lillestrøm
LIL
1 - 0
Sarpsborg 08
SAR
60%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
53.3%Home
22.1%Draw
24.6%Away
56.2%Home
21.1%Draw
22.8%Away

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Away
78% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
55% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
50% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08
29%
62%
0
71%
38%
1
0%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

53%
53%
0.0%
22%
22%
0.0%
25%
25%
0.0%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Lillestrøm 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 | Eliteserien | 3 May 2026

Result Summary

Lillestrøm delivered a commanding home performance at Åråsen, dismantling Sarpsborg 08 with a convincing 4–0 victory in the Eliteserien. Hans Erik Ødegaard's side were dominant where it mattered most, converting their chances clinically while keeping Even Sel's visitors firmly at bay throughout the afternoon.

Match Analysis

Lillestrøm set the tone early when Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim headed home in the 11th minute, converting a well-delivered assist from Felix Vá to give the hosts an ideal platform. The opener settled Lillestrøm into their work and put Sarpsborg 08 on the back foot from the outset.

Despite the scoreline suggesting a one-sided affair, the statistical picture was relatively balanced on the surface. Sarpsborg 08 actually shaded ball possession at 51% and matched Lillestrøm in corners (3 apiece), but the key distinction lay in quality and efficiency. Lillestrøm registered 4 shots on target compared to just 1 for Sarpsborg 08, and created 8 key passes to the visitors' 5. Sarpsborg 08 also wasted numerous efforts, accumulating 8 shots off target against Lillestrøm's 4 — a wasteful return that ultimately proved fatal.

Disciplinary issues compounded Sarpsborg 08's afternoon. A frantic spell around the 61st minute saw Menno Koch and Bjørn Inge Utvik both booked for fouls within the same minute, disrupting the visitors' rhythm at a critical juncture. Anders Hiim then followed into the referee's book in the 75th minute, leaving Sarpsborg 08 stretched and vulnerable. Lillestrøm had their own caution to contend with — Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen was booked for a foul in the 29th minute — but it did little to derail the home side's dominance.

Sarpsborg 08 made a double substitution at the hour mark, bringing on Andreas Nibe Hansen and Noa Williams, but the changes failed to spark a response. Lillestrøm's own introduction of Camil Jebara in the 69th minute proved inspired — the substitute wasted little time making his mark, netting with a left-foot shot in the 76th minute, again assisted by the influential Felix Vá. It was Vá's second assist of the match and arguably the performance of the day from a creative standpoint.

Three further Sarpsborg 08 changes followed in the 80th minute — Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn, Magnar Ødegaard, and Bop Guèye all came on — but the match was long since decided. Lillestrøm's 86% successful pass percentage and 47 dangerous attacks underlined their control of the more meaningful moments, even without holding the majority of possession.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Lillestrøm home win, with a predicted probability of 53.3% for a home victory and a confidence rating of 60/100. The outcome direction was correct — Lillestrøm did prevail — though the margin of victory significantly exceeded expectations. The 4–0 scoreline reflected a level of clinical efficiency and Sarpsborg 08 vulnerability that our model did not fully anticipate, given how closely matched the overall shot and possession statistics appeared on paper.

Key Takeaways

  • Felix Vá was the standout creative force, directly contributing two assists in what was a man-of-the-match display.
  • Camil Jebara made an immediate impact from the bench, underscoring Lillestrøm's squad depth.
  • Sarpsborg 08's three yellow cards in 15 minutes disrupted their structure at a pivotal stage of the match.
  • Despite Sarpsborg 08 edging

Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08?

PredictNext's AI model favours Lillestrøm with a 53% win probability — Lillestrøm 53%, draw 22%, Sarpsborg 08 25%.

What is the predicted score for Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08, generated with 60% model confidence.

Will Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08 have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 45% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for under 2.5 goals in Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08.

How accurate was the Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08 prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 4-0. The winner call was correct.

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