Serie B · Matchday
2026-10-17 15:15:00 · 23:15 · Stadio Danilo Martelli
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 0-2
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.30 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -1.1% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 3.46 | 3.25 | 2.20 | +3.8% | -12.2% | -5.4% |
| 1xbet | 3.26 | 3.35 | 2.15 | -2.2% | -9.5% | -7.6% |
| WilliamHill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 | -10.0% | -8.2% | -7.6% |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 | -10.0% | -10.9% | -3.2% |
| bwin | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | -7.0% | -8.2% | -5.4% |
| Ladbrokes | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.10 | -13.0% | -12.2% | -9.7% |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.13 | -2.5% | -9.5% | -8.4% |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.30 | -5.5% | -9.5% | -1.1% |
| Coral | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.10 | -13.0% | -12.2% | -9.7% |
| MelBet | 3.26 | 3.35 | 2.15 | -2.2% | -9.5% | -7.6% |
| Sbo | 2.80 | 3.04 | 2.15 | -16.0% | -17.9% | -7.6% |
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Match Report
Palermo Claim Victory in Mantova with Clinical Second-Half Display
Palermo secured a composed 2-0 away victory at Mantova in Saturday's Serie B fixture, with goals from Jacopo Segre and Hernani Azevedo Júnior settling the contest in the final quarter of the match. Despite Mantova dominating large portions of the game on paper, Filippo Inzaghi's side proved far more efficient when it mattered most.
Match Analysis
The first half was a relatively cautious affair, with Mantova gradually building into the game under coach Francesco Modesto. The only significant disciplinary moment came in the 21st minute when Palermo's Mattia Bani was booked for a foul, a minor setback that did little to disrupt the visitors' defensive shape.
After the interval, Mantova continued to press, and the statistics reflect a side that genuinely attempted to control proceedings. Mantova registered 15 shots in total compared to Palermo's 13, generated 107 attacks to Palermo's 82, and held a clear edge in dangerous attacks — 64 to 30. They also dominated possession, holding 56% of the ball against Palermo's 44%, and completed passes at a higher rate (82% successful pass percentage versus 75%). On the surface, these numbers tell the story of a Mantova side that created plenty of activity without the necessary cutting edge.
The key distinction lay in the shots on target column. Palermo edged it 5 to 4, and that marginal advantage in accuracy proved decisive. Mantova's Modesto introduced Lorenzo Ignacchiti for Rareș Ilie at the 55-minute mark in an effort to inject more attacking intent, but it was Palermo who broke the deadlock just seven minutes later.
Jacopo Segre fired home with his right foot on 62 minutes, capitalising on Palermo's ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter. Inzaghi then reshaped his side with a wave of substitutions — Nahuel Estévez and Alessandro Gabrielloni coming on, along with Hernani Azevedo Júnior replacing Dennis Johnsen on the 77th minute. The Portuguese midfielder needed only nine minutes to make his mark, finishing with his left foot from a Dominic Vavassori assist on 86 minutes to seal the three points. Mantova threw bodies forward late on, with Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo entering the fray, but the damage was done.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1-2 Palermo win, assigning the visitors a 43% probability of victory — making them the most likely outcome though far from a certainty at 58/100 confidence. The prediction proved correct in terms of the winning side, and while the scoreline ended 0-2 rather than 1-2, the analytical reasoning was well-founded. Palermo's superior efficiency in front of goal and their ability to absorb pressure before punishing the home side were exactly the patterns our model anticipated.
Key Takeaways
- Palermo were ruthlessly efficient, converting their opportunities despite being outworked for much of the match in terms of attacking volume.
- Mantova's wastefulness in front of goal remains a concern — 15 shots, 64 dangerous attacks, and nothing to show for it is a damaging return.
- Segre and Hernani were the defining contributions off the bench and from midfield, highlighting the quality depth Inzaghi can call upon.
- Palermo's away resilience will give Inzaghi significant confidence as the season progresses, while Mantova must find greater composure in the final third to avoid repeating such frustrating afternoons.
Mantova vs Palermo Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Mantova and Palermo: Mantova 0W · 3D · Palermo 2W.
0
Mantova wins
3
Draws
2
Palermo wins
Mantova vs Palermo — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mantova vs Palermo?
PredictNext's AI model favours Palermo with a 43% win probability — Mantova 30%, draw 27%, Palermo 43%.
What is the predicted score for Mantova vs Palermo?
The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Mantova vs Palermo.
How accurate was the Mantova vs Palermo prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 0-2. The winner call was correct.