Mirassol 1–5 Flamengo | Série A Match Analysis | 16 August 2026

Result Summary

Flamengo delivered a commanding performance at Mirassol, running out emphatic 5–1 winners in this Série A fixture. Jorge Carrascal opened the scoring in the first half before the visitors turned on the style after the break, with Pedro Guilherme bagging a brace and further strikes from Luiz Araújo and Samuel Lino completing a clinical evening for Leonardo Jardim's side. A late consolation header from João Victor Carroll gave the home faithful something to cheer, but the result was never in doubt from the moment Flamengo took control.

Match Analysis

The opening period was relatively contained, with Flamengo taking the initiative through Carrascal, who converted a Gonzalo Plata assist on 22 minutes with a composed right-foot finish. Mirassol, despite being under pressure, remained competitive enough to keep the deficit to a single goal at the break — a point reinforced by the statistics, which show the home side registering 16 total shots to Flamengo's 15, though their 8 shots off target told the story of wastefulness up front.

The second half was a different story entirely. Luiz Araújo doubled Flamengo's lead on 53 minutes, converting another Carrascal assist with his left foot, and within three minutes Pedro Guilherme added a third via an Ayrton Lucas delivery. The floodgates had opened. Pedro struck again on 66 minutes — Carrascal again the architect — giving the Brazilian striker a fine brace and confirming Flamengo's dominance in the final third.

Mirassol's discipline frayed under the pressure, with Denilson, Gustavo Cazonatti, and Antonio Francisco Moura Neto all collecting yellow cards, though none were dismissed. The home side's 12 fouls conceded compared to Flamengo's 4 underlined the mounting frustration in the Mirassol ranks.

Jardim rotated wisely, introducing Samuel Lino as part of a triple change on 63 minutes — a decision immediately vindicated when Lino netted on 74 minutes, finishing from a Giorgian de Arrascaeta assist to make it five. Mirassol grabbed a deserved consolation three minutes later when João Victor Carroll headed in from a Reinaldo cross, but by that stage the contest had long been decided.

Despite 57% possession for Flamengo and an 8–5 shots-on-target advantage, the hosts' attacking numbers — 94 attacks and 53 dangerous attacks — suggest Mirassol were not without spirit. The gulf in clinical finishing, however, was stark.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a Flamengo away win, priced at a 53% probability with a predicted scoreline of 0–2. The outcome was correct — Flamengo did win — though the actual 5–1 scoreline significantly exceeded the forecast margin. The model's moderate confidence rating of 58/100 reflected genuine uncertainty given Mirassol's home threat, and the hosts did produce enough attacking volume to suggest the contest had potential to be closer. In the end, Flamengo's finishing quality, particularly in the second half, proved the decisive factor our model had partially accounted for.

Key Takeaways

• Carrascal was outstanding, directly contributing to three Flamengo goals as both scorer and provider.
• Pedro Guilherme's brace underlines his importance to Flamengo's attack when fully operational.
• Mirassol's 16 shots show attacking intent, but 8 off target highlights a finishing problem.
• Flamengo's second-half substitutions were decisive — Lino, De Arrascaeta impacted the scoreline immediately.
• The result maintains Flamengo's momentum and underscores their title credentials in the 2026 Série A.