Serie A · Matchday
2026-10-24 19:30:00 · 03:30 · Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 1-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 | -3.2% | -10.4% | -7.2% |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.35 | 3.32 | -4.1% | -6.2% | -3.7% |
| 1xbet | 2.27 | 3.34 | 3.30 | -2.4% | -6.5% | -4.3% |
| WilliamHill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | -5.4% | -13.2% | -10.1% |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | -5.4% | -7.6% | -10.1% |
| bwin | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -7.2% |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.20 | -3.2% | -9.0% | -7.2% |
| MelBet | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.26 | -3.7% | -7.6% | -5.5% |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -4.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.24 | 3.20 | -5.4% | -9.3% | -7.2% |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -7.2% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
Mirassol 1–1 São Paulo | Série A | 24 October 2026
A spirited contest at Mirassol's ground ended in a share of the spoils, with an own goal opening the scoring before São Paulo levelled through Pedro Henrique to secure a 1–1 draw in this Série A fixture.
Match Analysis
The opening exchanges were explosive. São Paulo found themselves gifted an early advantage in the 7th minute when Rafael Pires Monteiro turned the ball into his own net, handing the hosts a lead they had done nothing to earn. Rather than retreating, Mirassol continued to press and created plenty of action, ultimately finishing the match with 18 total shots compared to São Paulo's 14 — a stat that underlines their intent throughout.
However, São Paulo's quality asserted itself before the interval. On 39 minutes, Pedro Henrique Cardoso de Lima restored parity with a composed left-foot finish, set up by the industrious Damián Bobadilla, and the visitors went into the break level at 1–1.
Discipline was a talking point in the first half, with Djhordney Ferreira (17') and Iago Amaral Borduchi (26') both receiving yellow cards for São Paulo — an indication of the physical nature of the contest. Mirassol's disciplinary issues emerged later, with Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alves (61'), Willian Estefani Machado (70'), and late substitute Wallisson Luiz Alves Maximo (83') all booked in the second period.
The second half saw both coaches turn to their benches in search of a winner. Dorival Silvestre Júnior introduced Pablo Gonçalves Maia Fortunato and Gustavo Domingos Santana at the 64-minute mark, with Mirassol's Rafael Silva Guanaes responding moments later with a triple change — bringing on Carlos Eduardo Ferreira de Souza, Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, and Wallisson Luiz Alves Maximo. Despite the fresh legs, neither side could find a decisive second goal.
The statistics paint a picture of genuine competitiveness. São Paulo enjoyed 55% possession and produced 46 dangerous attacks, yet Mirassol matched them with 43 dangerous attacks of their own and generated a remarkable 16 key passes against the visitors' 9. Shots on target were tight — 4 for Mirassol, 3 for São Paulo — reflecting how evenly the goalkeeping burden was shared. The corner count finished level at 7 apiece, further emphasising how closely contested this match was.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast had Mirassol as narrow favourites to win (43% home win probability), with the score predicted at 1–0 to the hosts. The confidence rating of 58/100 reflected genuine uncertainty in this fixture, and that caution was warranted. The actual result — a 1–1 draw — fell in line with our 28% draw probability and demonstrated that São Paulo's away resilience, combined with Pedro Henrique's clinical equaliser, was enough to deny Mirassol the three points. The prediction outcome was incorrect, though the match was competitive enough to validate the tight probability margins we assigned.
Key Takeaways
- Mirassol were the more enterprising side across most metrics, particularly in key passes (16 vs 9) and total shots (18 vs 14), but failed to convert their pressure into a winning goal.
- Pedro Henrique's left-foot finish, assisted by Bobadilla, proved to be São Paulo's most important moment of quality on the day.
- Discipline will need monitoring for both sides, with five yellow cards distributed across the 90 minutes.
- A point each leaves the question of momentum unresolved — both teams will reflect on what might have been.
Mirassol vs São Paulo Head-to-Head
Last 3 meetings between Mirassol and São Paulo: Mirassol 2W · 0D · São Paulo 1W.
2
Mirassol wins
0
Draws
1
São Paulo wins
Mirassol vs São Paulo — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mirassol vs São Paulo?
PredictNext's AI model favours Mirassol with a 43% win probability — Mirassol 43%, draw 28%, São Paulo 29%.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs São Paulo?
The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Mirassol vs São Paulo, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will Mirassol vs São Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Mirassol vs São Paulo.
How accurate was the Mirassol vs São Paulo prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.