
Serie B · Matchday
2026-10-24 13:00:00 · 21:00 · Stadio Alberto Braglia

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 3-0
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.75 | -11.3% | -6.4% | +3.5% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.53 | 4.22 | 6.02 | -11.3% | +1.3% | +8.4% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.59 | -11.3% | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.80 | -13.0% | -4.0% | +4.4% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 | -13.0% | +0.8% | +8.0% |
| bwin | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.50 | -10.1% | -1.6% | -1.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -13.0% | -6.4% | -10.0% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.59 | -11.3% | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| Coral | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -13.0% | -6.4% | -10.0% |
| Sbo | 1.51 | 3.59 | 4.84 | -12.4% | -13.8% | -12.9% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.56 | 4.30 | 5.80 | -9.5% | +3.2% | +4.4% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.51 | 4.20 | 5.70 | -12.4% | +0.8% | +2.6% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Modena Demolish Ten-Man Cesena in Dominant Derby Display
Modena 3-0 Cesena | Serie B | 24 October 2026
Result Summary
Daniele Galloppa's Modena delivered a comprehensive and authoritative performance at home, dismantling Cesena with a 3-0 victory that was never in serious doubt after a red card reshaped the contest inside the opening five minutes. Andrea Belotti stole the headlines with a first-half brace, while an unfortunate Gianluca Frabotta own goal compounded Cesena's misery in what became a thoroughly one-sided afternoon.
Match Analysis
The defining moment arrived almost immediately — and it arrived via the VAR screen. At just 2 minutes, a review was conducted on Cesena's Antonio Fiori, and the outcome was swift and brutal: a red card at the 5th minute for a foul, leaving Alessandro Diamanti's side to face the entire match with ten men. From that point forward, the result felt like a formality; the only question was the margin.
Modena were patient and methodical in exploiting their numerical advantage. With 70% ball possession, a 90% successful pass rate, and an overwhelming 130 attacks to Cesena's 63, Galloppa's side suffocated their opponents through sheer territorial dominance. The statistics tell a story of total control — 19 total shots against a meagre 4 from Cesena, and 16 key passes compared to just 2 for the visitors.
The deadlock was broken in the 19th minute when Andrea Belotti converted with his right foot, assisted by Gastón Brugman. It was a composed, clinical finish befitting a striker of his quality. Belotti was not done — just 13 minutes later at the 32nd, he doubled Modena's lead with another right-footed effort, this time assisted by Daniel Tonoli. Two goals in 13 minutes effectively ended Cesena's resistance.
Three minutes after Belotti's second, at the 35th minute, Cesena's afternoon went from bad to worse when Gianluca Frabotta turned the ball into his own net, making it 3-0 before the half-hour mark had long passed. It was a cruel but fitting summary of Cesena's entire afternoon. Mihajlo Ilić had already collected a yellow card at the 20th minute, adding further disciplinary woe for the visitors.
The second half was largely a matter of game management for Modena. Galloppa rotated his squad sensibly — bringing off Belotti at 57 minutes having done his job magnificently — while Cesena attempted to salvage some respectability through their own changes, introducing Emil Bohinen, Alessandro Debenedetti, and Marco Dalla Vecchia in search of something to show for a miserable afternoon. It never came. Cesena managed just 1 shot on target across the 90 minutes.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1-0 home win, with a 58% probability assigned to a Modena victory. While the winning team was correctly identified — giving us a correct directional outcome — the actual scoreline of 3-0 significantly exceeded our conservative projection. The early red card was the unforeseen variable that transformed a competitive Serie B fixture into a rout. Our confidence level of 60/100 reflected genuine uncertainty about the match's competitive dynamics, and with eleven-versus-eleven conditions, that caution was understandable. However, Antonio Fiori's dismissal fundamentally altered the game's trajectory within moments of kick-off.
Key Takeaways
- Andrea Belotti was the standout performer, netting a first-half brace to assert his quality at Serie B level.
- Antonio Fiori's red card in the 5th minute effectively decided this contest before it truly began.
- Modena's statistical dominance — particularly in possession, attacks, and passing accuracy — underlines a well-drilled, confident side under Galloppa.
- Cesena, managed by Alessandro Diamanti, will need to regroup and address their discipline issues ahead of upcoming fixtures.
Modena vs Cesena Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Modena and Cesena: Modena 3W · 8D · Cesena 9W.
3
Modena wins
8
Draws
9
Cesena wins
Modena vs Cesena — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
PredictNext's AI model favours Modena with a 58% win probability — Modena 58%, draw 24%, Cesena 18%.
What is the predicted score for Modena vs Cesena?
The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Modena vs Cesena, generated with 60% model confidence.
Will Modena vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Modena vs Cesena.
How accurate was the Modena vs Cesena prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 3-0. The winner call was correct.