Eredivisie · Matchday
2026-08-22 18:00:00 · 02:00 · Goffertstadion
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 2-2
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.25 | -10.7% | -5.5% | +6.3% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.45 | 5.04 | 5.92 | -10.1% | +5.8% | +0.6% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.46 | 4.99 | 6.37 | -9.5% | +4.8% | +8.3% |
| WilliamHill | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.50 | -13.2% | -0.3% | -6.5% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | -15.7% | +5.0% | +10.5% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.46 | 5.25 | 5.75 | -9.5% | +10.3% | -2.2% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 1.44 | 5.25 | 5.75 | -10.7% | +10.3% | -2.2% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.44 | 5.25 | 5.75 | -10.7% | +10.3% | -2.2% |
| CloudBetVALUE | 1.42 | 4.90 | 5.80 | -12.0% | +2.9% | -1.4% |
| 10BetVALUE | 1.40 | 5.10 | 6.20 | -13.2% | +7.1% | +5.4% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.42 | 4.85 | 6.20 | -12.0% | +1.8% | +5.4% |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.50 | -13.2% | -0.3% | -6.5% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.44 | 4.92 | 6.30 | -10.7% | +3.3% | +7.1% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Result Summary
A dramatic finale at the Goffert Stadion ensured neither side claimed all three points, as NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw on the opening weekend of the 2026-27 Eredivisie campaign. NEC looked on course for a comfortable home victory for much of the contest, only for Excelsior's substitutes to swing the momentum, before Noé Lebreton's stoppage-time equaliser rescued a point for Dick Schreuder's side.
Match Analysis
NEC set the early tempo in emphatic fashion. Adam Tahaui broke the deadlock after just ten minutes, finishing with his left foot from an assist by Willum Thór Willumsson, rewarding an energetic home start. The opening period saw NEC assert firm control — a trend that would be reflected across the full ninety minutes, with the hosts commanding 69% ball possession and completing passes at an 86% success rate, compared to Excelsior's 71%.
Despite that dominance, NEC were unable to extend their lead before the interval. Excelsior's reprieve arrived in the 43rd minute when David Garden converted a right-footed finish, assisted by Irakli Yegoian, to level matters just before the break and inject new life into Ruben den Uil's side.
Excelsior's half-time substitutions proved decisive. With Simon Janssen replaced by Kasey Bos, Excelsior's attacking intent sharpened. The pivotal moment came in the 71st minute: substitute Valentin Sulzbacher, introduced just four minutes earlier for Eric da Silva Moreira, struck with a right-footed effort assisted by fellow substitute Aymen Sliti — who had come on at 67' — to give Excelsior the lead. It was a textbook impact from the bench, and for a long stretch it appeared Excelsior had stolen the victory.
NEC, however, refused to capitulate. Despite generating 145 attacks to Excelsior's 90 and registering 68 dangerous attacks compared to just 21 from the visitors, the home side had been let down by their finishing — only 3 shots on target from 11 total. Then, deep into stoppage time, substitute Noé Lebreton delivered the crucial blow, nodding home a left-footed finish with an assist from Perr Schuurs in the 90+2' minute to salvage a point and send the home crowd into relief.
Discipline was an issue for Excelsior throughout, collecting 15 fouls and three yellow cards — Lennard Hartjes, Rick Meissen, and Valentin Sulzbacher all booked — against NEC's four fouls and one yellow for Jamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga in the fourth minute.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a NEC Nijmegen win at 2-1, supported by a 62% home-win probability and a confidence rating of 64/100. The prediction proved incorrect, as the match ended all-square. The forecast did correctly identify NEC as the stronger side — their statistical dominance in possession, attacks, and passing accuracy bore that out — but failed to account for Excelsior's clinical finishing from substitute contributions. The scoreline prediction of 2-1 was partially aligned in terms of goal volume, but the outcome of a draw fell into the 21% probability bracket we assigned.
Key Takeaways
- Substitute impact was decisive: Sliti and Sulzbacher combined for Excelsior's go-ahead goal, highlighting the value of den Uil's bench depth.
- NEC's inefficiency in front of goal — only 3 shots on target despite overwhelming possession — ultimately cost them the win.
- Lebreton's late equaliser salvaged a point and underlined the value of persistent pressure, even when results appear decided.
- Both sides will view this as a point dropped rather than gained given the respective contexts of the game.
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior: NEC Nijmegen 8W · 3D · Excelsior 7W.
8
NEC Nijmegen wins
3
Draws
7
Excelsior wins
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
PredictNext's AI model favours NEC Nijmegen with a 62% win probability — NEC Nijmegen 62%, draw 21%, Excelsior 17%.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior, generated with 64% model confidence.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior.
How accurate was the NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 2-2. The winner call was incorrect.