Pisa
Pisa
0 vs 1

Serie B · Matchday

2026-08-23 17:00:00 · 01:00 · Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Calcio Padova
Calcio Padova

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 0-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Pisa
PIS
2 - 1
Calcio Padova
PAD
51%
Confidence
Low Confidence
52.0%Home
26.0%Draw
22.0%Away
55.4%Home
26.1%Draw
18.6%Away
**Pisa** hold a narrow edge at home against **Calcio Padova**, with the visitors weakened by multiple absentees — Seghetti, Marcolini, and Vanelli Lusuardi all ruled out — depleting Padova's attacking and midfield options. The decisive factor will be whether Pisa can exploit this shortage in Padova's ranks through midfield control before the visitors settle into their typical draw-securing shape. AI pick: Pisa Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredPIS or Draw
78% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
54% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

PIS PAD
0%
43%
0
42%
57%
1
48%
0%
2
11%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

52%
53%
-1.0%
26%
27%
-1.0%
22%
20%
+2.1%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

Pisa 0–1 Calcio Padova | Serie B | 23 August 2026

Result Summary

A disciplined and clinical Calcio Padova claimed all three points at Pisa's ground on Sunday afternoon, winning 0–1 courtesy of a second-half strike from Pietro Fusi. Despite Pisa's clear dominance in possession and attacking volume, Antonio Calabro's side proved more efficient where it mattered most, delivering a result that will be remembered as one of the more notable upsets of the early Serie B season.


Match Analysis

On paper, this was a contest Pisa should have controlled. Paolo Bianco's side registered 22 total shots to Padova's 11, enjoyed 58% ball possession, and generated 56 dangerous attacks compared to the visitors' 45. Their 84% successful pass rate and 15 key passes pointed to a team that dominated the technical aspects of the game. Yet the scoreline tells a starkly different story.

The first half was relatively balanced, the major incident being a yellow card for İsak Vural at the 35th minute for a foul. Pisa's attacking intent was present but lacked the cutting edge needed to convert their superiority into goals.

Both coaches intervened heavily at half-time. Pisa brought on Rosen Bozhinov for the withdrawn Antonio Caracciolo, while Padova replaced Mattia Bortolussi with the experienced Kevin Lasagna — a change that would shift the dynamic of the match. A flurry of further substitutions between the 61st and 62nd minutes saw Emanuele Rao and Omar Correia enter for Pisa, while Padova introduced Matteo Cocchi.

The decisive moment arrived on 63 minutes, when Pietro Fusi converted with his left foot to give Calcio Padova the lead. It was only their second shot on target — a reminder of how ruthlessly efficient the visitors were in exploiting their limited opportunities against a Pisa side that had 7 shots on target yet found no way past the Padova goalkeeper.

Padova's discipline was tested in the closing stages as bookings accumulated — Giovanni Giunti (72'), an unnamed player for dissent (78'), and Alessandro Dellavalle (90+3') all received yellow cards amid growing Pisa pressure. Further changes from both benches, including Ichem Ferrah and Arturo Calabresi coming on for Pisa, could not change the narrative. The home side's 10 shots off target ultimately summed up an evening of frustration.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast had pointed to a Pisa home victory (2–1), with a 52% probability assigned to the home side and just 22% to a Calcio Padova win. The prediction carried a confidence rating of 51/100, reflecting genuine uncertainty — and the result proved that caution was warranted. Pisa's statistical performance largely aligned with expectations of home dominance, but Padova's efficiency and defensive solidity made the difference. This result highlights how raw attacking volume without clinical finishing can be entirely undone by a single, well-taken goal.


Key Takeaways

  • Pietro Fusi's 63rd-minute left-foot finish was the difference between two sides on the day.
  • Pisa's 22 shots and 56 dangerous attacks yielded nothing — a conversion problem that will concern coach Paolo Bianco.
  • Calcio Padova's 18 fouls suggest a physical, attritional approach that disrupted Pisa's rhythm despite the home side's technical superiority.
  • Antonio Calabro's side showed tactical maturity, absorbing pressure and striking decisively — a strong foundation for their Serie B campaign.

Pisa vs Calcio Padova Head-to-Head

Last 1 meetings between Pisa and Calcio Padova: Pisa 0W · 1D · Calcio Padova 0W.

0

1

0

Sun, Aug 12, 2012Calcio Padova2-2Pisa

Pisa vs Calcio Padova — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Pisa vs Calcio Padova?

PredictNext's AI model favours Pisa with a 52% win probability — Pisa 52%, draw 26%, Calcio Padova 22%.

What is the predicted score for Pisa vs Calcio Padova?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Pisa vs Calcio Padova, generated with 51% model confidence.

Will Pisa vs Calcio Padova have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for under 2.5 goals in Pisa vs Calcio Padova.

How accurate was the Pisa vs Calcio Padova prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 0-1. The winner call was incorrect.

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