Liga Portugal · Matchday
2026-10-26 18:45:00 · 02:45 · Estádio de São Miguel
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 12.00 | 5.00 | 1.27 | +68.0% | +7.5% | -18.1% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 8.38 | 4.91 | 1.36 | +17.3% | +5.6% | -12.3% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 10.20 | 5.01 | 1.36 | +42.8% | +7.7% | -12.3% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 | +19.0% | -3.2% | -12.3% |
| BetfairVALUE | 10.00 | 4.60 | 1.33 | +40.0% | -1.1% | -14.2% |
| bwinVALUE | 7.75 | 4.60 | 1.39 | +8.5% | -1.1% | -10.3% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 | +12.0% | -1.1% | -9.7% |
| MacauslotVALUE | 7.70 | 4.60 | 1.28 | +7.8% | -1.1% | -17.4% |
| CoralVALUE | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 | +12.0% | +3.2% | -9.7% |
| MelBetVALUE | 9.90 | 4.90 | 1.33 | +38.6% | +5.4% | -14.2% |
| BetVictorVALUE | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.33 | +19.0% | -5.4% | -14.2% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 9.40 | 4.60 | 1.33 | +31.6% | -1.1% | -14.2% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 7.40 | 4.45 | 1.39 | +3.6% | -4.3% | -10.3% |
| DafabetVALUE | 8.60 | 4.90 | 1.39 | +20.4% | +5.4% | -10.3% |
| Sbo | 6.95 | 4.16 | 1.32 | -2.7% | -10.6% | -14.9% |
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Match Preview & AI Analysis
Liga Portugal: Santa Clara vs Benfica Preview — 26 October 2026
Opening Context
When Santa Clara welcome Benfica to the Azores on Monday evening, the historical weight of this fixture sits firmly in the visitors' favour. This is a contest where the narrative has been written long before kick-off, shaped by years of Benfica dominance that the islanders have consistently struggled to rewrite. With our model producing a Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction of a 0-2 away win, the data points sharply toward another afternoon of Lisbon supremacy — though the story, as ever, deserves a closer read.
The Head-to-Head Record Speaks Clearly
The historical ledger between these two sides makes for sobering reading from a Santa Clara perspective. Across the last 14 meetings, Benfica have won 11, with Santa Clara managing just a single victory and two draws. Recent encounters have done little to challenge that dominance. Benfica claimed a 1-4 win in 2024, a result that underlined the gulf in quality between the two sides at their most separated. A pair of 2025 fixtures — a 1-0 Benfica win and a 1-1 draw — suggested Santa Clara might be growing into the matchup, but the most recent encounter in 2026 reverted to type: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica, with the Lisbon club recovering from a setback to take all three points.
That resilience is telling. Even when Santa Clara have found ways to score and apply pressure, Benfica have demonstrated the capacity to respond and close matches out.
Key Factors Shaping This Fixture
Benfica's away consistency against Santa Clara is the standout analytical point here. They have won the last four of these fixtures outright, conceding just five goals across those four matches while scoring nine. The 2025 draw represents the closest Santa Clara have come to a result in recent memory, and even that required a goal to rescue parity rather than to establish dominance.
For Santa Clara, the challenge is not simply tactical — it is psychological. Facing a side that has owned this head-to-head for years demands a performance of unusual composure and precision. The home side will need to limit mistakes in transition, as the 2024 scoreline of 1-4 demonstrated what Benfica are capable of when given space to counter and build momentum.
The forecast probability breakdown reinforces Benfica's favouritism: a 64.5% away win probability against just 14% for a Santa Clara home win, with a draw assessed at 21.5%. That 14% home win figure is particularly stark — it reflects not just current form considerations but the sheer weight of historical pattern in this specific matchup.
The draw probability of 21.5% is worth acknowledging. Santa Clara did manage a 1-1 in 2025, proving they can extract something from these games. If they can strike first and force Benfica to chase, the dynamic shifts at least partially. However, Benfica's ability to come from behind — as shown in the most recent 1-2 result — means even a lead may not be enough.
Prediction Summary
Our model carries a confidence rating of 63 out of 100, which reflects genuine uncertainty without fundamentally undermining Benfica's advantage. The predicted scoreline of 0-2 feels structurally sound given everything the head-to-head record tells us: Benfica tend to win here without excessive drama, keeping their defensive structure intact while converting their moments of quality. Santa Clara will make this competitive, as the recent history of 1-2 and 1-1 results confirms they are no pushover at home — but the forecast firmly points toward Benfica collecting three more points in the Azores and maintaining a pattern that has defined this fixture for years.
Prediction: Santa Clara 0-2 Benfica.
Santa Clara vs Benfica Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Santa Clara and Benfica: Santa Clara 1W · 2D · Benfica 11W.
1
Santa Clara wins
2
Draws
11
Benfica wins
Santa Clara vs Benfica — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
PredictNext's AI model favours Benfica with a 64% win probability — Santa Clara 14%, draw 22%, Benfica 64%.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
The AI forecasts a 0-2 scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica, generated with 63% model confidence.
Will Santa Clara vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Santa Clara vs Benfica.