Santos
Santos
1 vs 1

Serie A · Matchday

2026-10-25 00:00:00 · 08:00 · Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Bahia
Bahia

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 1-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Santos
STS
1 - 1
Bahia
BAH
55%
Confidence
Low Confidence
42.0%Home
27.0%Draw
31.0%Away
41.5%Home
27.4%Draw
31.1%Away
**Santos** enter this Serie A clash as narrow favorites despite a mixed H2H record against **Bahia**, bolstered by the visitors' defensive disruption — L. Verissimo da Silva is ruled out with a hamstring injury, weakening Bahia's backline. Watch for Santos to exploit that defensive vulnerability through central attacking combinations. AI pick: Santos Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredSTS or BAH
73% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
56% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?Yes
58% both teams score
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreNeymarAlso: Miguelito, Gabriel Barbosa

Goal Probability

STS BAH
0%
16%
0
46%
49%
1
54%
36%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

42%
42%
+0.3%
27%
27%
-0.2%
31%
31%
-0.0%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3652.253.403.00-5.5%-8.2%-7.0%
WilliamHill2.203.253.00-7.6%-12.2%-7.0%
bwin2.253.503.00-5.5%-5.5%-7.0%
Ladbrokes2.253.503.00-5.5%-5.5%-7.0%
Dafabet2.263.503.10-5.1%-5.5%-3.9%
Coral2.253.503.00-5.5%-5.5%-7.0%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Santos 1–1 Bahia | Série A | 25 October 2026

Result Summary

A dramatic late equaliser preserved Santos's unbeaten record at home as Luan Peres Petroni headed in from a Benjamín Rollheiser assist in the 93rd minute to cancel out Luciano Batista da Silva Junior's first-half opener for Bahia. The scoreline, however, only tells half the story of an evening defined by controversy, a red card, and a relentless Santos siege that ultimately could not be broken until injury time.

Match Analysis

The first half was shaping up as a controlled contest until the match's pivotal sequence arrived almost simultaneously. Luciano Batista da Silva Junior broke the deadlock in the 39th minute with a composed left-foot finish to give Bahia the lead, and the visitors looked set to carry that advantage into the interval. However, the half-time whistle brought its own chaos: Neymar da Silva Santos Junior, already booked in the 31st minute for dissent, was shown a second yellow card — confirmed by VAR — in the 46th minute, again for argumentation, and Santos were reduced to ten men before the restart had even properly begun.

Coach Alexi Stival responded immediately, withdrawing Philippe Coutinho and Gabriel Bontempo to introduce Ronielson da Silva Barbosa and João Felipe Schmidt Urbano, reshaping his side to cope with the numerical disadvantage. Credit must go to Santos for refusing to capitulate. Despite playing a man short, they dominated possession — 56% to Bahia's 44% — and generated a remarkable 23 total shots to Bahia's 16, with a striking 11 shots on target compared to Bahia's two. Their 14 corners to Bahia's 8 and 54 dangerous attacks to 26 paint the picture of a team that pushed relentlessly regardless of circumstances.

Rogério Ceni's Bahia side, to their credit, absorbed much of that pressure through disciplined defending and tactical fouling — they conceded 23 fouls to Santos's 13 and earned yellow cards for Nicolás Acevedo (44') and Victor Hugo (50') in the process. However, as Bahia tired and Ceni rotated through five substitutes, the defensive solidity began to crack. Rollheiser, introduced in the 70th minute, proved to be the decisive catalyst, picking up an assist for the equaliser as Luan Peres Petroni powered home a header in the 90+3rd minute to rescue a point.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–1 draw, and that is precisely how the evening concluded — a correct prediction, albeit the path to that result was far more turbulent than anticipated. Our confidence level of 55/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, and rightly so; few could have predicted a red card for such a high-profile player, or that Santos would manufacture a comeback with ten men. The statistics strongly supported Santos's territorial dominance, yet the red card made a draw an impressive result from the home side's perspective.

Key Takeaways

  • Neymar's dismissal was the defining moment of the match — his second yellow for persistent argumentation was confirmed by VAR and fundamentally altered the contest's dynamic.
  • Santos's resilience with ten men was remarkable: their shot volume, possession share, and corner count all exceeded Bahia's despite the handicap.
  • Rollheiser's impact off the bench was immediate and decisive, setting up the vital equaliser within 23 minutes of entering the pitch.
  • Bahia's defensive frailties in set-piece situations ultimately cost them what appeared to be a well-earned away win.

Santos vs Bahia Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Santos and Bahia: Santos 11W · 8D · Bahia 6W.

11

8

6

Sat, Apr 25, 2026Bahia2-2Santos
Sun, Aug 24, 2025Bahia2-0Santos
Sun, Apr 6, 2025Santos2-2Bahia
Mon, Sep 18, 2023Bahia1-2Santos
Wed, May 31, 2023Bahia1-1Santos

Santos vs Bahia — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Santos vs Bahia?

PredictNext's AI model favours Santos with a 42% win probability — Santos 42%, draw 27%, Bahia 31%.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Bahia?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Santos vs Bahia, generated with 55% model confidence.

Will Santos vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for under 2.5 goals in Santos vs Bahia.

How accurate was the Santos vs Bahia prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.

More Serie A AI Predictions