Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
3 vs 2

Eredivisie · Matchday

2026-10-17 19:00:00 · 03:00 · Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Willem II
Willem II

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 3-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam
SPR
2 - 1
Willem II
WIL
67%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
58.0%Home
22.0%Draw
20.0%Away
60.8%Home
21.5%Draw
17.7%Away
Sparta Rotterdam enter this Eredivisie clash as clear favorites, bolstered by winning four of the last five H2H meetings against Willem II. Willem II's defensive setup is further disrupted by the confirmed absence of W. van der Steen through a shoulder injury. Sparta's home dominance and structural advantage in transition should prove decisive in a tight contest. AI pick: Sparta Rotterdam Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredSPR or Draw
80% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
58% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
55% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreAndrej KosticAlso: Milan Zonneveld, Joel Ideho

Goal Probability

SPR WIL
0%
37%
0
33%
63%
1
51%
0%
2
16%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

58%
59%
-1.4%
22%
22%
+0.3%
20%
19%
+1.1%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet365VALUE1.534.335.25-11.3%-4.7%+5.0%
Pinnacle1.604.514.79-7.2%-0.8%-4.2%
1xbetVALUE1.624.385.10-6.0%-3.6%+2.0%
WilliamHill1.574.004.60-8.9%-12.0%-8.0%
Betfair1.534.505.00-11.3%-1.0%0.0%
bwin1.604.335.00-7.2%-4.7%0.0%
Ladbrokes1.604.335.00-7.2%-4.7%0.0%
Coral1.604.335.00-7.2%-4.7%0.0%
Marathonbet1.574.254.95-8.9%-6.5%-1.0%
MelBet1.604.325.00-7.2%-5.0%0.0%

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II | Eredivisie | 17 October 2026

Result Summary

A pulsating Saturday evening clash at Het Kasteel ended with Sparta Rotterdam claiming a hard-fought 3–2 victory over Willem II, courtesy of goals from Jens Toornstra, Lushendry Martes, and Milan Zonneveld. Willem II twice threatened to disrupt the home side's rhythm — through Tonny Emilio Trindade de Vilhena's opener and Uriël van Aalst's late pull-back — but Sparta ultimately held firm under the guidance of coach Rogier Meijer.


Match Analysis

Willem II, managed by John Stegeman, made a confident start and were rewarded early when Tonny Emilio Trindade de Vilhena broke the deadlock in the 17th minute with a composed left-foot finish. The visitors showed early control, edging possession at 51% by full-time, and registering the higher attack count (110 vs. 98), though Sparta would prove far more clinical when opportunities arose.

Sparta's response was measured rather than frantic. Jens Toornstra drew the hosts level in the 39th minute with a right-foot effort, assisted by Milan Zonneveld, injecting momentum into Sparta just before the break. The Toornstra–Zonneveld combination would prove decisive across the evening. Sparta's attacking intent was evident in the statistics: 22 total shots to Willem II's 13, and 8 shots on target compared to the visitors' 4.

The second half brought Sparta's most productive spell. Lushendry Martes struck on the 50th minute with a right-foot shot to put the hosts ahead for the first time, and just seven minutes later, Milan Zonneveld headed home — assisted by Toornstra — to stretch the lead to 3–1 in the 57th minute. Sparta's 15 key passes to Willem II's 8 underlines how effectively the home side created and exploited openings in the final third.

The match grew increasingly tetchy following that third goal. A flurry of bookings — nine yellow cards in total — reflected the rising tension, notably including a cluster of cards around the 70th minute after the dismissal of Jaden Slory was avoided. Uriël van Aalst pulled one back for Willem II in the 68th minute, assisted by Vito van Crooij, setting up a nervy final quarter-hour. Sparta's time-wasting, evident in late yellows for Milan Zonneveld and Bas Edo Kuipers, spoke volumes about the pressure John Stegeman's side applied late on.

Willem II's late substitutions — including the introduction of Chidozie Obi-Martin and Jari Schuurman — added urgency, but Sparta managed their lead sufficiently to secure all three points.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a Sparta Rotterdam win with a 2–1 scoreline, assigning a 58% probability to a home victory. The winner prediction proved correct, with Sparta duly claiming the three points. The scoreline ran slightly higher (3–2 vs. the projected 2–1), reflecting a more open and eventful contest than anticipated, particularly Willem II's tenacity in creating 13 shots and 34 dangerous attacks. A confidence rating of 67/100 felt appropriate given how closely matched the two sides proved to be.


Key Takeaways

  • The Toornstra–Zonneveld axis was central to Sparta's victory, combining for two goals and demonstrating effective interplay throughout.
  • Sparta's shot volume (22 total, 8 on target) was a decisive factor despite Willem II holding a slight possession edge.
  • Discipline remains a concern for both sides following nine bookings, with Willem II in particular likely to review the card count ahead of upcoming fixtures.
  • For Willem II, the ability to score twice and generate 110 attacks offers some encouragement, but defensive fragility in the 50–57 minute window ultimately cost them.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II: Sparta Rotterdam 9W · 6D · Willem II 6W.

9

6

6

Sun, Mar 2, 2025Sparta Rotterdam4-0Willem II
Sat, Aug 31, 2024Willem II1-2Sparta Rotterdam
Sun, Feb 13, 2022Sparta Rotterdam1-0Willem II
Sat, Nov 6, 2021Willem II0-3Sparta Rotterdam
Sun, Feb 28, 2021Sparta Rotterdam0-2Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

PredictNext's AI model favours Sparta Rotterdam with a 58% win probability — Sparta Rotterdam 58%, draw 22%, Willem II 20%.

What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II, generated with 67% model confidence.

Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II.

How accurate was the Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.

More Eredivisie AI Predictions