
Eredivisie · Matchday
2026-10-17 19:00:00 · 03:00 · Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 3-2
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25 | -11.3% | -4.7% | +5.0% |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.51 | 4.79 | -7.2% | -0.8% | -4.2% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.62 | 4.38 | 5.10 | -6.0% | -3.6% | +2.0% |
| WilliamHill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 | -8.9% | -12.0% | -8.0% |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 | -11.3% | -1.0% | 0.0% |
| bwin | 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | -7.2% | -4.7% | 0.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | -7.2% | -4.7% | 0.0% |
| Coral | 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | -7.2% | -4.7% | 0.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.25 | 4.95 | -8.9% | -6.5% | -1.0% |
| MelBet | 1.60 | 4.32 | 5.00 | -7.2% | -5.0% | 0.0% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II | Eredivisie | 17 October 2026
Result Summary
A pulsating Saturday evening clash at Het Kasteel ended with Sparta Rotterdam claiming a hard-fought 3–2 victory over Willem II, courtesy of goals from Jens Toornstra, Lushendry Martes, and Milan Zonneveld. Willem II twice threatened to disrupt the home side's rhythm — through Tonny Emilio Trindade de Vilhena's opener and Uriël van Aalst's late pull-back — but Sparta ultimately held firm under the guidance of coach Rogier Meijer.
Match Analysis
Willem II, managed by John Stegeman, made a confident start and were rewarded early when Tonny Emilio Trindade de Vilhena broke the deadlock in the 17th minute with a composed left-foot finish. The visitors showed early control, edging possession at 51% by full-time, and registering the higher attack count (110 vs. 98), though Sparta would prove far more clinical when opportunities arose.
Sparta's response was measured rather than frantic. Jens Toornstra drew the hosts level in the 39th minute with a right-foot effort, assisted by Milan Zonneveld, injecting momentum into Sparta just before the break. The Toornstra–Zonneveld combination would prove decisive across the evening. Sparta's attacking intent was evident in the statistics: 22 total shots to Willem II's 13, and 8 shots on target compared to the visitors' 4.
The second half brought Sparta's most productive spell. Lushendry Martes struck on the 50th minute with a right-foot shot to put the hosts ahead for the first time, and just seven minutes later, Milan Zonneveld headed home — assisted by Toornstra — to stretch the lead to 3–1 in the 57th minute. Sparta's 15 key passes to Willem II's 8 underlines how effectively the home side created and exploited openings in the final third.
The match grew increasingly tetchy following that third goal. A flurry of bookings — nine yellow cards in total — reflected the rising tension, notably including a cluster of cards around the 70th minute after the dismissal of Jaden Slory was avoided. Uriël van Aalst pulled one back for Willem II in the 68th minute, assisted by Vito van Crooij, setting up a nervy final quarter-hour. Sparta's time-wasting, evident in late yellows for Milan Zonneveld and Bas Edo Kuipers, spoke volumes about the pressure John Stegeman's side applied late on.
Willem II's late substitutions — including the introduction of Chidozie Obi-Martin and Jari Schuurman — added urgency, but Sparta managed their lead sufficiently to secure all three points.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a Sparta Rotterdam win with a 2–1 scoreline, assigning a 58% probability to a home victory. The winner prediction proved correct, with Sparta duly claiming the three points. The scoreline ran slightly higher (3–2 vs. the projected 2–1), reflecting a more open and eventful contest than anticipated, particularly Willem II's tenacity in creating 13 shots and 34 dangerous attacks. A confidence rating of 67/100 felt appropriate given how closely matched the two sides proved to be.
Key Takeaways
- The Toornstra–Zonneveld axis was central to Sparta's victory, combining for two goals and demonstrating effective interplay throughout.
- Sparta's shot volume (22 total, 8 on target) was a decisive factor despite Willem II holding a slight possession edge.
- Discipline remains a concern for both sides following nine bookings, with Willem II in particular likely to review the card count ahead of upcoming fixtures.
- For Willem II, the ability to score twice and generate 110 attacks offers some encouragement, but defensive fragility in the 50–57 minute window ultimately cost them.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II: Sparta Rotterdam 9W · 6D · Willem II 6W.
9
Sparta Rotterdam wins
6
Draws
6
Willem II wins
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
PredictNext's AI model favours Sparta Rotterdam with a 58% win probability — Sparta Rotterdam 58%, draw 22%, Willem II 20%.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II, generated with 67% model confidence.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II.
How accurate was the Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.