Admiral Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-18 15:00:00 · 23:00 · Merkur Arena
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 6-1
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | -2.5% | -11.6% | -8.8% |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.53 | 4.01 | -0.5% | -8.2% | -3.8% |
| 1xbet | 1.80 | 3.72 | 4.08 | -10.0% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| WilliamHill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.90 | -10.0% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 | -16.5% | +4.0% | +10.4% |
| bwin | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 | -2.5% | -9.0% | -13.6% |
| Unibet | 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.90 | -8.0% | -3.8% | -6.4% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -4.5% | -14.2% | -18.4% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 | -13.5% | +4.0% | +8.0% |
| MansionBet | 1.84 | 3.75 | 3.70 | -8.0% | -2.5% | -11.2% |
| Interwetten | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.85 | -2.5% | -6.4% | -7.6% |
| Macauslot | 1.93 | 3.38 | 3.22 | -3.5% | -12.1% | -22.7% |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.70 | -2.5% | -6.4% | -11.2% |
| MelBet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.83 | -6.0% | -6.4% | -8.1% |
| Cashpoint | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.90 | -2.5% | -9.0% | -6.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.68 | 4.10 | -10.5% | -4.3% | -1.6% |
| Sbo | 1.70 | 3.54 | 3.90 | -15.0% | -8.0% | -6.4% |
| Coral | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -4.5% | -14.2% | -18.4% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK | Admiral Bundesliga | 18 October 2026
Result Summary
A stunning second-half collapse from Grazer AK handed city rivals Sturm Graz a comprehensive 6–1 derby victory at home, in what proved to be one of the most one-sided Graz derbies in recent memory. Despite an early shock, Sturm recovered emphatically before half-time and then ran riot after the interval, with Oumar Diakité stealing the headlines by completing a hat-trick within the opening ten minutes of the second half.
Match Analysis
Grazer AK made the perfect start, with Christopher Cvetko converting in the 10th minute, assisted by Yannick Oberleitner, to give the visitors an early lead. For a brief period, it appeared GAK's game plan was bearing fruit. However, the lead proved short-lived and, ultimately, illusory.
Sturm's response was relentless. Luca Weinhandl levelled in the 37th minute, assisted by Valmir Matoshi, before the game turned decisively in the space of just four minutes. Jürgen Heil fired Sturm ahead on 39 minutes with a right-foot finish, assisted by Luis Balbo, and then Oumar Diakité added a third on 41 minutes to send Sturm into the break with a commanding 3–1 advantage. It was a remarkable turnaround driven by Sturm's attacking fluency and Grazer AK's inability to reorganise.
The statistics tell the full story of Sturm's dominance: 55% ball possession, 24 total shots to GAK's 12, and a striking 59 dangerous attacks compared to just 28 for the visitors. Sturm's 65% successful pass rate outperformed GAK's 56%, while their 18 key passes to GAK's 6 reflects how thoroughly coach Fabio Ingolitsch's side controlled the creative tempo.
The second half was all Sturm — and all Diakité. Oumar Diakité headed home from a Simon Seidl assist on 49 minutes, then added his third of the afternoon with a left-foot finish in the 51st minute — Seidl providing the assist once again. Diakité received a yellow card moments later (52') for unsportsmanlike conduct, before being withdrawn at the hour mark, his work well and truly done. Jon Gorenc Stankovič added gloss to the scoreline on 75 minutes, again heading home from a Simon Seidl delivery — Seidl's third assist of the match, a remarkable individual contribution in its own right.
GAK were not helped by their disciplinary record; they conceded 17 fouls across the match and collected yellow cards through Mark Grosse (48') and Alexander Hofleitner (53'). A VAR review involving Joshua Quarshie at 45+7' added further drama to a chaotic closing period of the first half.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–1 home win for Sturm Graz, carrying a 50% probability of a home victory. While the outcome was correctly predicted — a correct call on the winning side — the margin of victory significantly exceeded expectations. A 6–1 scoreline was far beyond the conservative 2–1 forecast, underscoring that even when a prediction lands on the right side, the sheer scale of a derby demolition can be difficult to model. The confidence rating of 61/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, and GAK's early goal briefly validated that caution.
Key Takeaways
- Oumar Diakité was the undeniable standout, scoring three times and tormenting the GAK backline throughout.
- Simon Seidl delivered an exceptional creative performance, registering three assists in the second half alone.
- Sturm Graz's attacking depth and clinical finishing proved far too much for a Grazer AK side that was competitive for only the first ten minutes.
- Coach Fabio Ingolitsch will take great satisfaction from this emphatic
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK: Sturm Graz 7W · 2D · Grazer AK 3W.
7
Sturm Graz wins
2
Draws
3
Grazer AK wins
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
PredictNext's AI model favours Sturm Graz with a 50% win probability — Sturm Graz 50%, draw 26%, Grazer AK 24%.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK, generated with 61% model confidence.
Will Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK.
How accurate was the Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 6-1. The winner call was correct.