Admiral Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-25 13:30:00 · 21:30 · Merkur Arena
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 2-2
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.33 | -13.7% | -6.4% | +3.9% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.69 | 4.27 | 4.35 | -12.1% | +2.5% | +4.4% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.70 | 3.94 | 4.41 | -11.6% | -5.4% | +5.8% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 | -13.2% | -6.4% | +0.8% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.50 | -15.8% | +0.8% | +8.0% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -12.6% | -1.6% | +0.8% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -14.2% | -6.4% | -4.0% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.70 | 3.94 | 4.41 | -11.6% | -5.4% | +5.8% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.68 | 3.94 | 4.45 | -12.6% | -5.4% | +6.8% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.40 | -13.7% | -1.6% | +5.6% |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -14.2% | -6.4% | -4.0% |
| BetVictorVALUE | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 | -13.2% | -4.0% | +3.9% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Sturm Graz 2–2 Ried | Admiral Bundesliga | 25 October 2026
Result Summary
A dramatic Sunday afternoon at Sturm Graz ended in a share of the spoils, with Ried claiming a hard-fought 2–2 draw. Despite being reduced to ten men before half-time and facing an uphill battle for large portions of the contest, the visitors held firm to deny Sturm Graz what looked like a crucial winning goal deep into stoppage time — before Belmin Beganovic's 90+2' equaliser flipped the narrative once more and secured a point for the hosts in extraordinary fashion.
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz made the brighter start and were rewarded when Simon Seidl converted in the 31st minute, giving coach Fabio Ingolitsch's side a deserved lead. The hosts had been the more dynamic team in the opening period, and the statistics reflect that dominance — Sturm Graz registered 27 total shots to Ried's 10 and generated 60 dangerous attacks compared to Ried's 35, along with a commanding 8 corners to Ried's 2.
However, the first half took a decisive turn in the closing moments. Arjan Malic was shown a red card for violent conduct on 45 minutes, a decision confirmed by VAR review, leaving Sturm Graz to navigate the remainder of the match with ten men. The incident clearly unsettled the home side, with Jon Gorenc Stankovič picking up a yellow card in added time for dissent.
Ried capitalised swiftly after the break. Isaac Kiese Thelin levelled with a header in the 55th minute, assisted by Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer, and suddenly the numerical advantage was showing. Despite having less of the ball — Ried enjoyed 56% possession to Sturm Graz's 44% — Ingolitsch's side paradoxically generated the greater attacking volume, a testament to their directness and willingness to press forward even in difficult circumstances.
Coach Mario Despotović made proactive changes for Ried, introducing Martin Rasner and Stefan Schwab around the hour mark to consolidate their position. Sturm Graz also rotated heavily, with Beganovic and Petar Petrović coming on in the 67th minute alongside later introductions of Julian Halwachs and Szymon Włodarczyk. It was Beganovic who proved the game-changer — latching onto a Jacob Peter Hödl assist to fire home with his left foot in the second minute of stoppage time and restore parity for Sturm Graz.
Key passes reflected Sturm Graz's intent even while shorthanded — 20 to Ried's 9 — though Ried's superior pass success rate of 82% (vs Sturm Graz's 75%) showed the visitors were composed in retention. Both sides ended the match with something to rue and something to celebrate.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a Sturm Graz win (2–1), carrying a confidence rating of 60/100. The prediction was ultimately incorrect, with the match finishing level at 2–2. The red card for Malic proved the kind of match-altering event that is inherently difficult to forecast, and Ried's resilience in the second half was admirable. The draw outcome, which we had assigned a 24% probability, reflected a genuine possibility given Ried's quality, though the manner of the result — twice level — was notably unpredictable.
Key Takeaways
- Malic's red card was the pivotal moment, fundamentally reshaping the contest midway through the first half.
- Beganovic made an immediate impact off the bench, underlining his threat as a substitute option.
- Kiese Thelin demonstrated his aerial quality with a composed headed equaliser.
- Sturm Graz's attacking output — 27 shots, 20 key passes — shows genuine creative quality, but the numerical disadvantage ultimately cost them
Sturm Graz vs Ried Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Sturm Graz and Ried: Sturm Graz 32W · 12D · Ried 12W.
32
Sturm Graz wins
12
Draws
12
Ried wins
Sturm Graz vs Ried — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
PredictNext's AI model favours Sturm Graz with a 52% win probability — Sturm Graz 52%, draw 24%, Ried 24%.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Ried, generated with 60% model confidence.
Will Sturm Graz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for under 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz vs Ried.
How accurate was the Sturm Graz vs Ried prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 2-2. The winner call was incorrect.