
Eliteserien · Matchday
2026-07-18 14:00:00 · 22:00 · Intility Arena

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 6-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -10.6% | -1.6% | +0.8% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.74 | 4.26 | 4.17 | -9.5% | +2.2% | +0.1% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.73 | 4.24 | 4.30 | -10.0% | +1.8% | +3.2% |
| WilliamHill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -11.6% | -6.4% | -4.0% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | -11.6% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.71 | 4.00 | 4.20 | -11.1% | -4.0% | +0.8% |
| UnibetVALUE | 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.25 | -11.6% | -5.2% | +2.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -13.2% | -8.8% | -6.4% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.15 | 4.20 | -12.1% | -0.4% | +0.8% |
| CloudBet | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.05 | -11.6% | -0.4% | -2.8% |
| CashpointVALUE | 1.70 | 4.25 | 3.90 | -11.6% | +2.0% | -6.4% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.26 | -10.6% | +0.8% | +2.2% |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -13.2% | -8.8% | -6.4% |
| BetssonVALUE | 1.78 | 3.90 | 4.20 | -7.4% | -6.4% | +0.8% |
| MansionBet | 1.75 | 4.05 | 3.85 | -9.0% | -2.8% | -7.6% |
| Macauslot | 1.62 | 4.05 | 3.83 | -15.8% | -2.8% | -8.1% |
| 10BetVALUE | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -11.6% | -1.6% | +0.8% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.20 | -9.0% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -13.2% | -4.0% | -1.6% |
| Sbo | 1.67 | 3.76 | 3.80 | -13.2% | -9.8% | -8.8% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Vålerenga 6–1 Aalesund | Eliteserien | 18 July 2026
Result Summary
Vålerenga delivered a commanding performance at home, dismantling Aalesund with a 6–1 victory that was every bit as emphatic as the scoreline suggests. Under coach Johannes Moesgaard, the hosts turned the match into a statement afternoon, with a devastating spell either side of half-time effectively ending the contest before the hour mark.
Match Analysis
The opening exchanges gave little indication of what was to come, with Aalesund actually enjoying the greater share of possession — 54% to Vålerenga's 46% — and generating 97 attacks compared to the home side's 85. Yet football is decided by decisive moments, and Vålerenga made theirs count in extraordinary fashion.
Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren was the catalyst, scoring twice in quick succession in the 39th and 42nd minutes. His first arrived via an assist from Henrik Bjørdal, his second from Filip Thorvaldsen, both finished with his right foot. Before Aalesund could regroup, Filip Erik Thorvaldsen added a third in first-half stoppage time, assisted by Mathias Grundetjern, to send the teams into the break at 3–0. It was a ruthless conclusion to the first half that completely belied Aalesund's possession figures.
The second half brought no relief for Kjetil André Rekdal's side. Despite making three changes at the break — bringing on Emil Engqvist, Håkon Butli Hammer, and Elias Heggland Myrlid — Aalesund conceded again almost immediately. Thorvaldsen struck his second of the match on 53 minutes, again assisted by Bjørdal, to put the game entirely beyond doubt at 4–0.
Vålerenga's shot conversion was the decisive factor. With 10 shots on target from 22 total, the hosts were clinical where it mattered, compared to Aalesund's 6 on-target efforts from 18 attempts. Key passes told a similar story — 18 for Vålerenga versus 13 for Aalesund — highlighting how effectively the home side's attacking combinations functioned despite their minority ball share.
A consolation arrived on 74 minutes when Endre Hjertager Osenbroch converted with a left-foot finish, assisted by Uba Charles, to make it 4–1. But any hope of a dramatic comeback was immediately extinguished. Substitute Mohamed Ofkir, introduced on 72 minutes, demonstrated his impact with two late goals — first on 83 minutes from a Bjørdal assist, then on 89 minutes set up by Kolbeinn Finnsson — to seal a remarkable 6–1 final score. Bjørdal's three assists across the match were outstanding and central to Vålerenga's attacking output.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–1 home win, with Vålerenga assigned a 52% probability of victory. The prediction was correct in direction — Vålerenga did win — but the margin was something few models could have anticipated. A five-goal winning margin reflects a level of execution, particularly in the final third around the 39th to 53rd minute window, that goes beyond pre-match projections. Our confidence rating of 64/100 appropriately reflected uncertainty, and while the winner was right, the scoreline was a significant outlier.
Key Takeaways
- Ravn-Haren and Thorvaldsen were devastating in the first half, combining for three goals before the break
- Henrik Bjørdal was the standout creator with three assists across the 90 minutes
- Aalesund's possession dominance (54%) proved entirely hollow against Vålerenga's ruthless efficiency
- Mohamed Ofkir made an immediate impact off the bench, netting twice in the final seven minutes
- This result sends a significant message about Vålerenga's attacking capabilities under Moesgaard
Vålerenga vs Aalesund Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Vålerenga and Aalesund: Vålerenga 14W · 7D · Aalesund 10W.
14
Vålerenga wins
7
Draws
10
Aalesund wins
Vålerenga vs Aalesund — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vålerenga vs Aalesund?
PredictNext's AI model favours Vålerenga (also known as Valerenga) with a 52% win probability — Vålerenga 52%, draw 24%, Aalesund 24%.
What is the predicted score for Vålerenga vs Aalesund?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Vålerenga vs Aalesund, generated with 64% model confidence.
Will Vålerenga vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Vålerenga vs Aalesund.
How accurate was the Vålerenga vs Aalesund prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 6-1. The winner call was correct.