
Serie A · Matchday
2026-10-24 21:30:00 · 05:30 · Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 3-2
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.50 | -10.7% | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| 1xbet | 1.83 | 3.65 | 4.47 | -6.7% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| WilliamHill | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.20 | -8.2% | -8.2% | -7.6% |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 | -8.2% | -5.5% | -4.7% |
| bwin | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.33 | -6.7% | -5.5% | -4.7% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.20 | -6.7% | -5.5% | -7.6% |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.33 | -5.6% | -2.8% | -4.7% |
| MelBet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.42 | -7.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.54 | 4.33 | -9.2% | -4.4% | -4.7% |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.60 | 4.50 | -7.7% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
Vasco da Gama 3–2 Corinthians | Série A | 24 October 2026
Result Summary
A dramatic Saturday night at São Januário produced one of the most breathtaking finales of the Série A season. Vasco da Gama overturned a second-half deficit to claim all three points, with Marino Hinestroza Angulo delivering a stunning late brace — scoring in the 88th and 90th minutes — to seal a 3–2 victory over Clarence Seedorf's Corinthians. It was a result that perfectly reflected the attacking dominance Pedro Emanuel's side displayed across the ninety minutes.
Match Analysis
Vasco were the better side for large portions of this contest, and the statistics back that emphatically. The hosts controlled 64% of possession, launched 115 attacks compared to Corinthians' 86, and registered 25 total shots against just 12 from the visitors. That pressure eventually told in the 35th minute when José Luis Rodríguez Bebanz opened the scoring with a composed left-foot finish, giving Vasco the lead their first-half performance deserved.
Corinthians, however, showed resilience after the break. Gustavo Henrique Vernes headed home from a Breno Bidon assist in the 50th minute to level, and just seven minutes later Matheus Lima Beltrão Oliveira converted a right-foot shot — aided by Fabrizio Angileri — to turn the match on its head. Suddenly, Seedorf's side, despite being second-best on the statistical scoreboard, led 2–1.
The game's key turning point came with substitutions. Vasco introduced Marino Hinestroza Angulo as early as the 37th minute, replacing Andrés Gómez, and the Colombian forward would ultimately prove the decisive influence. With nerves fraying and Corinthians protecting their lead, Hinestroza Angulo struck twice in the closing stages — an independent right-foot effort in the 88th minute, followed by another right-foot finish in the 90th minute assisted by David — to complete a remarkable turnaround. His late heroics earned him a yellow card for unsportsmanlike conduct in the 90+2', a minor footnote on what was an outstanding individual performance.
Corinthians were not without discipline issues of their own. Rodrigo Garro was booked for a foul in the 31st minute and was eventually substituted off in the 67th, while Fabricio Angileri — who had contributed an assist — also picked up a yellow card in the 85th minute. Jesse Lingard, introduced in the 77th minute, was cautioned in the 90+6'. Vasco's key pass count of 15 compared to Corinthians' 7 further underlines how thoroughly the home side controlled the creative flow, despite the momentary setback of going behind.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Vasco da Gama win, with a 51% probability assigned to the home side — making this a relatively measured call at 58/100 confidence. The outcome was correct: Vasco did win, validating the prediction direction. The scoreline, however, proved far more dramatic than anticipated, with goals at either end and a last-gasp comeback rather than the controlled, clean-sheet victory our model envisaged. Corinthians' ability to flip the script midway through the second half was an unexpected element, though Vasco's statistical superiority ultimately shone through.
Key Takeaways
- Marino Hinestroza Angulo was the match's defining figure, scoring twice in injury time to rescue and win the game as a substitute.
- Vasco's statistical dominance — 64% possession, 25 shots, 83% pass accuracy — eventually wore Corinthians down, despite a mid-game wobble.
- Corinthians showed attacking efficiency but lacked the defensive solidity needed to protect a 2–1 lead against a side of this quality at home.
- Pedro Emanuel's Vasco side demonstrated admirable mental resilience — a crucial asset in a title or relegation battle context
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Corinthians: Vasco da Gama 4W · 13D · Corinthians 22W.
4
Vasco da Gama wins
13
Draws
22
Corinthians wins
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?
PredictNext's AI model favours Vasco da Gama with a 51% win probability — Vasco da Gama 51%, draw 27%, Corinthians 22%.
What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?
The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians.
How accurate was the Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.