
Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-18 13:30:00 · 21:30 · BayArena

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 2-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.33 | -4.0% | -11.9% | -4.7% |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.37 | 4.23 | -2.8% | -6.0% | -6.9% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.74 | 4.41 | 4.62 | -1.7% | -5.2% | +1.6% |
| WilliamHill | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.40 | -8.5% | -9.7% | -3.2% |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.33 | -8.5% | -6.9% | -4.7% |
| bwin | 1.66 | 4.33 | 4.50 | -6.2% | -6.9% | -1.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.40 | -5.6% | -9.7% | -3.2% |
| MelBet | 1.68 | 4.26 | 4.44 | -5.1% | -8.4% | -2.3% |
| MansionBet | 1.73 | 4.05 | 3.90 | -2.3% | -12.9% | -14.2% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.66 | 4.40 | 4.70 | -6.2% | -5.4% | +3.4% |
| Sbo | 1.64 | 3.99 | 4.14 | -7.3% | -14.2% | -8.9% |
| Coral | 1.67 | 4.33 | 4.50 | -5.6% | -6.9% | -1.0% |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 4.30 | 4.30 | -3.4% | -7.6% | -5.4% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Leverkusen Edge a Competitive Bundesliga Clash
Bayer 04 Leverkusen secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg at home on Sunday afternoon, with Ibrahim Maza and Patrik Schick combining brilliantly to overturn an early deficit and claim all three points in a tightly contested Bundesliga encounter.
Match Analysis
The game burst into life inside the opening quarter-hour when SC Freiburg took a surprise lead. Derry Lionel Scherhant latched onto an assist from Philipp Treu to fire home with his left foot in the 14th minute, giving Julian Schuster's side a deserved early advantage. The visitors had looked purposeful from the outset, and the statistics ultimately reflect how competitive they were throughout — Freiburg edged both overall attacks (106 vs 91) and dangerous attacks (47 vs 42), while also generating more key passes (10 vs 7).
Leverkusen, however, responded with admirable composure. Just five minutes after falling behind, Ibrahim Maza levelled matters in the 19th minute, converting a right-footed effort assisted by Patrik Schick. The equaliser steadied the hosts under coach Carles Martínez Novell, and the match settled into a more even contest through the remainder of the first half.
Freiburg's Philipp Treu picked up a yellow card in the 39th minute for a foul, a booking that would contribute to his substitution early in the second half. Leverkusen's disciplinary record was notably poorer, however, accumulating 12 fouls to Freiburg's just 5, though no further bookings were issued.
The second half saw Martínez Novell make proactive changes, introducing Nathan Tella and later Malik Tillman to inject energy into Leverkusen's attack. The decisive moment arrived in the 76th minute when Patrik Schick — who had assisted Maza's equaliser — now became the scorer himself, finishing with a right-footed effort set up by Maza in a neat role reversal. The two players had combined to swing the match entirely in Leverkusen's favour.
Despite Freiburg pushing hard with further substitutions — including Lucas Höler, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, and Patrick Osterhage — they were unable to find a second goal. Leverkusen's shot conversion told the story: 5 shots on target from 12 total compared to Freiburg's 2 on target from 11, underlining the hosts' superior clinical efficiency on the day. Possession was essentially shared, with Freiburg narrowly edging it at 51% to 49%, confirming this was no one-sided affair.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called exactly this result — a 2-1 Leverkusen home victory — with a 56.5% probability assigned to the home win outcome. The prediction carried a confidence rating of 63/100, reflecting the genuine competitiveness expected from this fixture, and the match statistics validated that caution. Freiburg were far from outclassed, generating significant attacking volume, but Leverkusen's ability to convert their chances proved decisive. The prediction lands as fully correct, with both the winner and the scoreline matching precisely.
Key Takeaways
- The Maza–Schick connection was the defining partnership of this match, each player assisting and then scoring in a remarkable mutual contribution.
- Freiburg's attacking output was impressive in volume but lacked the finishing quality to back it up, managing only 2 shots on target despite generating 47 dangerous attacks.
- Leverkusen showed resilience and tactical flexibility through their substitutions, with the introduction of Tillman coming just minutes before Schick's winner.
- This result reinforces Leverkusen's status as a side capable of winning from behind, a hallmark of genuine title contenders.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and SC Freiburg: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 16W · 10D · SC Freiburg 6W.
16
Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins
10
Draws
6
SC Freiburg wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
PredictNext's AI model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a 56% win probability — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 56%, draw 22%, SC Freiburg 22%.
What is the predicted score for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg, generated with 63% model confidence.
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg.
How accurate was the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was correct.