Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2 vs 1

Bundesliga · Matchday

2026-10-18 13:30:00 · 21:30 · BayArena

SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 2-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
B04
2 - 1
SC Freiburg
SCF
63%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
56.5%Home
21.5%Draw
22.0%Away
57.4%Home
21.4%Draw
21.2%Away
Bayer 04 Leverkusen enter as favorites, boosted by SC Freiburg's injury concerns — notably M. Terrier ruled out with a hamstring injury, disrupting Freiburg's attacking options. Leverkusen's dominance in H2H, winning three of the last five meetings, underlines their edge at home, where Granit Xhaka's midfield control will be key to breaking down a depleted Freiburg side. AI pick: Bayer 04 Leverkusen Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredB04 or SCF
79% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
62% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?Yes
52% both teams score
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scorePatrik SchickAlso: Victor Boniface, Christian Kofane

Goal Probability

B04 SCF
0%
42%
0
34%
58%
1
50%
0%
2
15%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

56%
56%
+0.3%
22%
22%
-0.7%
22%
22%
+0.4%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3651.704.104.33-4.0%-11.9%-4.7%
Pinnacle1.724.374.23-2.8%-6.0%-6.9%
1xbetVALUE1.744.414.62-1.7%-5.2%+1.6%
WilliamHill1.624.204.40-8.5%-9.7%-3.2%
Betfair1.624.334.33-8.5%-6.9%-4.7%
bwin1.664.334.50-6.2%-6.9%-1.0%
Ladbrokes1.674.204.40-5.6%-9.7%-3.2%
MelBet1.684.264.44-5.1%-8.4%-2.3%
MansionBet1.734.053.90-2.3%-12.9%-14.2%
MarathonbetVALUE1.664.404.70-6.2%-5.4%+3.4%
Sbo1.643.994.14-7.3%-14.2%-8.9%
Coral1.674.334.50-5.6%-6.9%-1.0%
Dafabet1.714.304.30-3.4%-7.6%-5.4%

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Leverkusen Edge a Competitive Bundesliga Clash

Bayer 04 Leverkusen secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg at home on Sunday afternoon, with Ibrahim Maza and Patrik Schick combining brilliantly to overturn an early deficit and claim all three points in a tightly contested Bundesliga encounter.

Match Analysis

The game burst into life inside the opening quarter-hour when SC Freiburg took a surprise lead. Derry Lionel Scherhant latched onto an assist from Philipp Treu to fire home with his left foot in the 14th minute, giving Julian Schuster's side a deserved early advantage. The visitors had looked purposeful from the outset, and the statistics ultimately reflect how competitive they were throughout — Freiburg edged both overall attacks (106 vs 91) and dangerous attacks (47 vs 42), while also generating more key passes (10 vs 7).

Leverkusen, however, responded with admirable composure. Just five minutes after falling behind, Ibrahim Maza levelled matters in the 19th minute, converting a right-footed effort assisted by Patrik Schick. The equaliser steadied the hosts under coach Carles Martínez Novell, and the match settled into a more even contest through the remainder of the first half.

Freiburg's Philipp Treu picked up a yellow card in the 39th minute for a foul, a booking that would contribute to his substitution early in the second half. Leverkusen's disciplinary record was notably poorer, however, accumulating 12 fouls to Freiburg's just 5, though no further bookings were issued.

The second half saw Martínez Novell make proactive changes, introducing Nathan Tella and later Malik Tillman to inject energy into Leverkusen's attack. The decisive moment arrived in the 76th minute when Patrik Schick — who had assisted Maza's equaliser — now became the scorer himself, finishing with a right-footed effort set up by Maza in a neat role reversal. The two players had combined to swing the match entirely in Leverkusen's favour.

Despite Freiburg pushing hard with further substitutions — including Lucas Höler, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, and Patrick Osterhage — they were unable to find a second goal. Leverkusen's shot conversion told the story: 5 shots on target from 12 total compared to Freiburg's 2 on target from 11, underlining the hosts' superior clinical efficiency on the day. Possession was essentially shared, with Freiburg narrowly edging it at 51% to 49%, confirming this was no one-sided affair.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called exactly this result — a 2-1 Leverkusen home victory — with a 56.5% probability assigned to the home win outcome. The prediction carried a confidence rating of 63/100, reflecting the genuine competitiveness expected from this fixture, and the match statistics validated that caution. Freiburg were far from outclassed, generating significant attacking volume, but Leverkusen's ability to convert their chances proved decisive. The prediction lands as fully correct, with both the winner and the scoreline matching precisely.

Key Takeaways

  • The Maza–Schick connection was the defining partnership of this match, each player assisting and then scoring in a remarkable mutual contribution.
  • Freiburg's attacking output was impressive in volume but lacked the finishing quality to back it up, managing only 2 shots on target despite generating 47 dangerous attacks.
  • Leverkusen showed resilience and tactical flexibility through their substitutions, with the introduction of Tillman coming just minutes before Schick's winner.
  • This result reinforces Leverkusen's status as a side capable of winning from behind, a hallmark of genuine title contenders.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and SC Freiburg: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 16W · 10D · SC Freiburg 6W.

16

10

6

Sat, Mar 7, 2026SC Freiburg3-3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Sun, Oct 26, 2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen2-0SC Freiburg
Sun, May 4, 2025SC Freiburg2-2Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Sat, Dec 21, 2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen5-1SC Freiburg
Sun, Mar 17, 2024SC Freiburg2-3Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

PredictNext's AI model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a 56% win probability — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 56%, draw 22%, SC Freiburg 22%.

What is the predicted score for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg, generated with 63% model confidence.

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg.

How accurate was the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was correct.

More Bundesliga AI Predictions