CSKA Sofia 1–3 Maccabi Tel Aviv | Europa League Qualifier | Second Leg

Maccabi Tel Aviv advance on the strength of a dominant second-leg performance in Sofia, completing their Europa League progression with a commanding 3–1 victory. Kenny Miller's side controlled proceedings from the opening whistle and rarely looked threatened on the night.

Match Analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv set the tone early. Dor Peretz broke the deadlock in the 12th minute, converting with an assist from the influential Osher Davida, giving the Israeli side an away cushion that immediately put CSKA Sofia's aggregate position under serious pressure. The Bulgarian hosts struggled to impose themselves in the first half, managing just 35% possession against a Maccabi side that racked up 109 attacks across the 90 minutes compared to CSKA's 71.

The statistics tell a clear story of dominance: Maccabi Tel Aviv registered 16 total shots to CSKA's 9, enjoyed a 6–2 corner advantage, and forced the home side into 22 fouls — nearly double the 12 conceded by the visitors. Despite the one-sided possession and attacking metrics, CSKA did show occasional intent, with Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Stefano Sensi providing moments of quality in midfield, though Sensi was cautioned in the 56th minute.

The second half opened up further. Ester Sokler doubled Maccabi's lead on 61 minutes, again from an Osher Davida assist — the Israeli midfielder providing two crucial contributions on the night before being substituted off in the 79th minute. The two-goal cushion appeared to settle the tie definitively.

CSKA's response was brief. Stefano Sensi reduced the deficit on 66 minutes, assisted by substitute James Eto'o, who had entered at the break in place of the yellow-carded Bruno Jordão. For a fleeting moment, the hosts threatened a comeback, but that hope was extinguished almost immediately when Fedor Lapoukhov turned the ball into his own net in the 69th minute, restoring Maccabi's two-goal advantage and effectively ending any realistic prospect of a CSKA revival. A difficult evening for the CSKA defender, whose own goal proved the decisive blow in closing out the tie.

Coach Hristo Yanev introduced Joël Zwarts and Mohamed Amine Brahimi in the closing stages, but CSKA's 3-on-target shots across the entire match reflected how little they were able genuinely threaten Roy Revivo's goal. Maccabi saw the game out professionally, with their disciplinary composure — despite three yellow cards — remaining largely intact.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of 1–1 had a confidence rating of 59/100, reflecting genuine uncertainty across both sides. The model assigned a 38% probability to a home win, 27% to a draw, and 35% to a Maccabi victory — making this ultimately a close call that landed on the wrong outcome. In hindsight, Maccabi's statistical superiority in attack volume, possession, and shot creation indicated a level of quality that the forecast slightly underweighted. The own goal added an element of chance, but the overall performance merited the winning margin.

Key Takeaways

• Osher Davida was the standout creator with two decisive assists before his late substitution
• CSKA's 22 fouls highlighted their inability to cope with Maccabi's pace and movement through legitimate means
• The Lapoukhov own goal in the 69th minute proved the match's defining moment, ending any slim CSKA hope
• Maccabi Tel Aviv advance to the next round of Europa League qualifying, their controlled possession game — 65% throughout — reflecting clear tactical superiority under Kenny Miller