Derby County
Derby County
0 vs 3

Championship · Matchday

2026-08-29 11:30:00 · 19:30

Swansea City
Swansea City

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 0-3

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Derby County
DER
1 - 1
Swansea City
SWA
53%
Confidence
Low Confidence
41.0%Home
28.5%Draw
30.5%Away
43.6%Home
28.6%Draw
27.8%Away
**Derby County** hold a slight edge on home soil, with **Swansea City** weakened by the confirmed absences of C. Burgess (Achilles rupture) and M. Clarke (calf injury), disrupting their defensive shape. The key battleground will be exploiting Swansea's makeshift backline through Derby's attacking transitions. AI pick: Derby County Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Away
72% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
58% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

Derby County Swansea City
0%
33%
0
62%
52%
1
38%
14%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

41%
41%
-0.3%
28%
29%
+0.1%
31%
30%
+0.1%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Swansea City Dismantle Derby County in Dominant Away Display

Swansea City secured a commanding 3-0 victory at Pride Park on Saturday, putting in one of the more emphatic Championship performances of the early 2026/27 season. The result was never truly in doubt after a lightning start, as Vítor Matos' side controlled large swathes of the contest and left John Eustace's Derby County well beaten.

Match Analysis

The tone was set within the opening two minutes when Joseph Amankwaah Opoku broke the deadlock, converting a left-footed finish from an assist by Ji-Sung Eom to stun the home faithful almost immediately. It was a devastating early blow for Derby, and one they never recovered from.

The statistics tell a stark story. Swansea's superiority was overwhelming — 23 total shots to Derby's eight, and a remarkable 12 shots on target compared to Derby's zero. That figure alone underlines how little threat the Rams posed in front of goal despite generating 47 dangerous attacks. Swansea's 18 key passes to Derby's four further illustrates how consistently Matos' side created meaningful opportunities throughout the 90 minutes.

Ji-Sung Eom was the standout performer of the afternoon. After his assist for the opener, the Swansea midfielder added a goal of his own in first-half stoppage time — a composed right-footed finish just before the break that effectively killed the contest at 2-0 heading into the interval. Derby's triple substitution at half-time, introducing Rhian Brewster, Samuel Szmodics, and Joe Ward, signalled urgency from Eustace, but the changes failed to alter the dynamic of the game.

Derby's frustration was evident in the card count. Three yellow cards — for Sondre Klingen Langås (69'), Dion Sanderson (79'), and Lewis Travis (81') — reflected a side running out of ideas and resorting to fouls. By comparison, Swansea's lone disciplinary concern of note came from Marko Stamenic's booking for time-wasting in the 73rd minute, which spoke volumes about their comfort on the ball. With 53% possession and an 83% successful pass completion rate against Derby's 76%, the visitors moved the ball with efficiency and purpose.

Substitute Ronald Pereira Martins wrapped up proceedings in the 90th minute, converting a right-footed effort assisted by fellow substitute Stephen Eustaquio to confirm the emphatic scoreline. Swansea's 6 corners to Derby's 5 rounded off a picture of near-total dominance.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match model forecast a 1-1 draw, assigning a 41% probability to a home win and just 30.5% to a Swansea victory — a prediction that was ultimately wide of the mark. With a confidence score of only 53/100, uncertainty was factored in, but few analysts would have anticipated the margin or the complete absence of shots on target from Derby. The data suggests Swansea's performance significantly outperformed their pre-match expectation metrics, while Derby fell considerably short of theirs.

Key Takeaways

  • Swansea City look a genuine force in the Championship this season if this display is indicative of their quality under Vítor Matos.
  • Ji-Sung Eom's contribution was decisive — a goal and an assist in a standout individual performance.
  • Derby County face serious questions. Registering zero shots on target at home is deeply concerning, and John Eustace will demand an urgent response.
  • The early season table is starting to take shape, and Saturday's result may prove significant come May.

Derby County vs Swansea City — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Derby County vs Swansea City?

PredictNext's AI model favours Derby County with a 41% win probability — Derby County 41%, draw 28%, Swansea City 31%.

What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Swansea City?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Derby County vs Swansea City, generated with 53% model confidence.

Will Derby County vs Swansea City have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Derby County vs Swansea City.

How accurate was the Derby County vs Swansea City prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 0-3. The winner call was incorrect.

More Championship AI Predictions