2. Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-16 16:30:00 · 00:30 · Stadion der Freundschaft
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 1-1
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.00 | -16.3% | -6.4% | -2.0% |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 4.14 | 1.98 | -11.2% | -0.6% | -3.0% |
| 1xbet | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.01 | -16.3% | -4.0% | -1.5% |
| WilliamHill | 3.10 | 3.80 | 1.95 | -16.3% | -8.8% | -4.4% |
| BetfairVALUE | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.00 | -16.3% | +0.8% | -2.0% |
| bwinVALUE | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.05 | -16.3% | -4.0% | +0.4% |
| Ladbrokes | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.00 | -21.7% | -11.2% | -2.0% |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.04 | -13.6% | -4.0% | -0.0% |
| MansionBet | 3.05 | 3.95 | 2.00 | -17.6% | -5.2% | -2.0% |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 4.00 | 1.93 | -15.5% | -4.0% | -5.4% |
| MelBet | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.01 | -16.3% | -4.0% | -1.5% |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 4.00 | 1.99 | -16.3% | -4.0% | -2.5% |
| Macauslot | 2.71 | 3.90 | 2.01 | -26.8% | -6.4% | -1.5% |
| Coral | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.00 | -21.7% | -11.2% | -2.0% |
| Sbo | 2.91 | 3.46 | 1.93 | -21.4% | -17.0% | -5.4% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
Energie Cottbus 1–1 Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 16 October 2026
Result Summary
A hard-fought draw at Cottbus saw both sides share the spoils in a match that had plenty of drama in the second half. Justin Butler broke the deadlock on 56 minutes, only for substitute Styopa Mkrtchyan to equalise late on in the 79th minute, denying Energie Cottbus what would have been a valuable home victory. Miroslav Klose's Nürnberg side dominated possession and territory throughout but were ultimately unable to convert that dominance into three points.
Match Analysis
On paper, the statistics tell a clear story of Nürnberg's superiority. The visitors enjoyed 62% ball possession to Cottbus's 38%, registered 19 total shots to the hosts' 14, and created 117 attacks compared to just 81 from the home side. Their corner count was particularly striking — 8 to Cottbus's 2 — illustrating how persistently they pressed into the final third.
And yet, when it came to shots on target, the sides were level at 5 apiece, a testament to the defensive resilience that Claus-Dieter Wollitz's Cottbus side maintained despite the territorial pressure. Nürnberg's passing quality was reflected in their 86% successful pass rate, while Cottbus managed a respectable 76% of their own, suggesting they were disciplined and organised rather than passive when in possession.
The match turned on key moments. Leonardo Bittencourt was the creative catalyst for Cottbus's opening goal, providing the assist that allowed Justin Butler to finish with a right-foot shot on 56 minutes — a goal against the run of play, but no less deserved given the hosts' defensive commitment. Bittencourt's influence was short-lived, however, as he was withdrawn at the 65-minute mark, replaced by Dominik Pelivan.
Nürnberg responded by introducing Styopa Mkrtchyan at 66 minutes, and the Armenian proved decisive almost immediately, converting a left-foot shot in the 79th minute from an Eric Porstner assist to level matters. It was a classic impact substitute performance, and underlined the depth available to Klose's squad.
The disciplinary ledger was reasonably busy — five yellow cards in total, including bookings for Nürnberg's Adam Marhiev (foul, 34') and Alexios Kalogeropoulos (argument, 61'), and three Cottbus yellows for Henry Rorig, Tolcay Cigerci, and late on for substitute Christian Kinsombi. None of the cards escalated into dismissals, though the bookings hinted at the underlying physicality of the contest.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast gave Nürnberg a 49% probability of victory, compared to 27% for a Cottbus win and 24% for a draw, producing a predicted scoreline of 1–2 and a confidence rating of 56/100. That forecast proved incorrect — the match finished level at 1–1, the least probable of our three outcomes. While Nürnberg's statistical dominance aligned with our assessment of their credentials as favourites, Cottbus demonstrated exactly the kind of stubborn home resilience that can complicate even the most reasonable predictions. The low confidence score did signal meaningful uncertainty, and the result is a reminder that territorial dominance does not always translate into decisive outcomes.
Key Takeaways
- Cottbus punched above their weight defensively, limiting Nürnberg to five shots on target despite facing 117 attacks.
- Mkrtchyan's substitute impact was the decisive factor in preventing a Cottbus home win — Klose's tactical intervention worked.
- Nürnberg's 14 key passes matching Cottbus's tally, despite far greater possession and attacking volume, suggests some wastefulness in the final third.
- For Wollitz's side, a draw against a possession-heavy opponent represents a creditable return, even if three points were within reach.
Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head
Last 4 meetings between Energie Cottbus and Nürnberg: Energie Cottbus 0W · 3D · Nürnberg 1W.
0
Energie Cottbus wins
3
Draws
1
Nürnberg wins
Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg?
PredictNext's AI model favours Nürnberg (also known as Nurnberg) with a 49% win probability — Energie Cottbus 27%, draw 24%, Nürnberg 49%.
What is the predicted score for Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg?
The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg, generated with 56% model confidence.
Will Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg.
How accurate was the Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.