Estrela Amadora 0-2 Casa Pia | Liga Portugal | 24 October 2026

Result Summary

Casa Pia delivered a disciplined, counter-punching performance at Estrela Amadora's ground, claiming all three points with a 2-0 victory that belied the statistical picture. João Pedro Seno Luis Rêgo broke the deadlock in the 31st minute, and Lawrence Ofori sealed the win deep into stoppage time, ensuring Casa Pia left with a clean sheet and a statement result in Liga Portugal.

Match Analysis

The numbers tell a fascinating story of a match where dominance and efficiency pointed in completely opposite directions. Estrela Amadora controlled the ball with 63% possession, registered 18 total shots — including 6 on target — and generated 123 attacks compared to Casa Pia's 54. Their 85% successful pass rate and 11 key passes underlined genuine technical control throughout the afternoon. On paper, this looked like a home side in total command.

Yet Casa Pia proved ruthlessly clinical. The visitors absorbed pressure with composure and struck decisively on the counter. Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri's assist teed up João Pedro Rêgo for a composed left-foot finish in the 31st minute, punishing a moment of Estrela vulnerability and handing Casa Pia a lead they would defend tenaciously. Estrela pressed forward in search of an equaliser but found themselves frustrated by an organised Casa Pia defensive structure — despite their clear territorial advantage and 7 corners to Casa Pia's 5.

Coach Filipe Coelho made impactful use of his substitutions. Henrique Araújo came on at the 60th minute in place of Cassiano, and it was he who delivered the assist for the decisive second goal. In the 90+2' minute, Lawrence Ofori — introduced as part of Casa Pia's fresh legs late on — rifled home a long-distance effort to definitively end Estrela's hopes of a comeback. It was a moment of individual quality that underscored Casa Pia's game management.

For Estrela, Pedro Filipe's attacking reshaping in the second half — bringing on Lucas Mincarelli Davin, Beni Loussakou Souza, Tom Moustier, and Alisson Souza de Jesus — couldn't convert their volume of possession and chances into goals. Six shots on target against only four for Casa Pia and yet no reward for the home side remains the starkest takeaway of this encounter.

A yellow card for Patrick Mejías in the 68th minute added brief drama, and late bookings for Jefferson Encada and Pedro Rosas in added time reflected the fractious final moments, but nothing altered the scoreline.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast leaned toward a home victory for Estrela Amadora at 54% probability, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. That projection proved incorrect. While the statistical indicators of possession, attacks, and shot volume aligned with the home-side confidence, they failed to account for Casa Pia's counter-attacking sharpness and finishing efficiency. The 21% away win probability materialised, serving as a reminder that dominance of ball and territory does not guarantee points — a lesson this match illustrated emphatically. Our confidence rating of 60/100 rightly reflected some uncertainty, but the analytical weight given to possession-based metrics misread how the game would ultimately be decided.

Key Takeaways

• Casa Pia's clinical edge — 2 goals from 4 shots on target — was the decisive factor against a more dominant but wasteful Estrela side.
• Substitutions shaped the result: Henrique Araújo's introduction directly contributed to the killer second goal.
• Estrela Amadora will rue their inability to convert 18 total shots into even a single goal — a conversion crisis that their coaching staff must urgently address.
• Casa Pia's victory is a timely reminder that resilience and efficiency can outweigh territorial control in Liga Portugal's competitive mid-table battles.