Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-24 13:30:00 · 21:30 · Mewa Arena
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 2-3
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.50 | -17.0% | +2.5% | +12.5% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.66 | 4.23 | 4.59 | -17.0% | +5.8% | +14.7% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.73 | 4.41 | 4.72 | -13.5% | +10.3% | +18.0% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 | -16.5% | 0.0% | +8.3% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.50 | -16.0% | +5.0% | +12.5% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.40 | -16.5% | +5.0% | +10.0% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.50 | -15.0% | +5.0% | +12.5% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.67 | 4.24 | 4.54 | -16.5% | +6.0% | +13.5% |
| SboVALUE | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.23 | -18.5% | -1.2% | +5.8% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.30 | 4.60 | -15.5% | +7.5% | +15.0% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | -15.5% | +5.0% | +12.5% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -15.5% | 0.0% | +7.5% |
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Match Report
FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 24 October 2026
Result Summary
A pulsating Bundesliga encounter at Mainz ended in a 2–3 victory for Werder Bremen, with the decisive moments arriving in a frantic second half. Despite Mainz dominating large portions of the match in terms of attacking intent, it was Daniel Thioune's side who showed the clinical edge when it mattered most, escaping the Mewa Arena with all three points.
Match Analysis
The opening goal arrived on 33 minutes, when Anthony Caci powered home a header — assisted by Sheraldo Becker — to give Urs Fischer's side a deserved lead. Mainz looked comfortable going into the interval, and the statistics reinforce that impression: they generated 145 attacks to Bremen's 76 and recorded 91 dangerous attacks compared to just 34 from the visitors. Ball possession stood at 53% for Mainz, and they produced 17 key passes to Bremen's 13.
However, the second half told an entirely different story. Bremen's coaching staff moved quickly at the break, bringing on Mick Schmetgens in place of Olivier Deman, and the tactical refresh bore fruit. Ludovit Reis levelled the contest on 61 minutes with a composed left-foot finish, assisted by Marco Grüll — though Reis had already been cautioned on 38 minutes for a foul, making his contribution all the more impactful. Mainz responded almost immediately: just two minutes later on 63 minutes, Jae-Sung Lee restored the home side's advantage with another header, this time set up by the industrious Caci.
Yet Bremen's resolve held firm. The visitors managed to overturn the deficit and secure a 3–2 win — a remarkable achievement given Mainz's statistical superiority in attacks and possession. Both sides registered 8 shots on target from 18 and 17 total attempts respectively, underlining just how tight the contest was in front of goal. Marco Grüll picked up a late yellow card in the 89th minute, while Mainz goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow was booked in stoppage time for dissent — a reflection of the mounting frustration on the home bench.
Mainz made significant changes from 75 minutes onwards, withdrawing key contributors Jae-Sung Lee, Caci, and Becker, while Bremen managed their game intelligently, bringing on Cédric Itten for Niclas Füllkrug in the closing stages to help preserve their slender advantage.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–1 draw, assigning a 50% probability to a Mainz win, 25% to a draw, and 25% to a Bremen victory. With a confidence rating of just 56/100, uncertainty was acknowledged, but the outcome still fell outside our projected result. The analysis underestimated Bremen's ability to absorb pressure, absorb Mainz's territorial dominance, and convert their moments of quality into a match-winning advantage. The statistics suggested Mainz as the likelier winners, yet football repeatedly defies volume-based logic.
Key Takeaways
- Werder Bremen's efficiency was the defining factor — fewer attacks, but lethal when it counted.
- Anthony Caci was central to both Mainz goals, scoring one and assisting the other, making his substitution at 75 minutes feel premature in hindsight.
- Mainz's inability to hold a two-goal window — despite statistical control — highlights a defensive vulnerability under pressure.
- Daniel Thioune's half-time adjustments proved decisive, with Bremen immediately shifting the momentum after the restart.
- This result serves as a reminder that possession and attack volume do not guarantee results in the Bundesliga.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen: FSV Mainz 05 11W · 7D · Werder Bremen 18W.
11
FSV Mainz 05 wins
7
Draws
18
Werder Bremen wins
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
PredictNext's AI model favours FSV Mainz 05 with a 50% win probability — FSV Mainz 05 50%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 25%.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen, generated with 56% model confidence.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen.
How accurate was the FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 2-3. The winner call was incorrect.