Bundesliga · Matchday
2026-10-17 13:30:00 · 21:30 · Volksparkstadion
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 1-0
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.80 | -18.6% | -1.6% | -2.8% |
| Pinnacle | 4.04 | 3.85 | 1.83 | -11.1% | -7.6% | -1.2% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 4.08 | 4.08 | 1.90 | -10.2% | -2.1% | +2.6% |
| WilliamHill | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.83 | -17.5% | -10.0% | -1.2% |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.80 | -20.8% | -1.6% | -2.8% |
| bwin | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.85 | -18.6% | -4.0% | -0.1% |
| Ladbrokes | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.83 | -18.6% | -4.0% | -1.2% |
| Coral | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.85 | -18.6% | -4.0% | -0.1% |
| MelBet | 3.94 | 3.94 | 1.83 | -13.3% | -5.4% | -1.2% |
| Sbo | 3.40 | 3.82 | 1.83 | -25.2% | -8.3% | -1.2% |
| MansionBet | 3.60 | 3.85 | 1.84 | -20.8% | -7.6% | -0.6% |
| Marathonbet | 3.98 | 3.98 | 1.85 | -12.4% | -4.5% | -0.1% |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.84 | -17.5% | -1.6% | -0.6% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 17 October 2026
Result Summary
A dramatic late winner from Miro Muheim in the 88th minute was enough to hand Hamburger SV a hard-fought 1–0 victory over VfB Stuttgart at the Volksparkstadion. The result, sealed against the run of play given Stuttgart's overwhelming statistical dominance, represents a significant three points for Merlin Polzin's side and a frustrating afternoon for Sebastian Hoeneß's visitors.
Match Analysis
The statistics tell a story of two contrasting halves of the pitch. Stuttgart controlled proceedings with 66% possession, completing passes at an impressive 92% success rate compared to Hamburg's 76%. The visitors launched 143 attacks to Hamburg's 79, and registered 24 total shots — including 5 on target — against Hamburg's 14 total shots and 3 on target. Stuttgart also dominated the corner count, winning 9 to Hamburg's 5.
Yet, as football so often demonstrates, statistics do not always determine outcomes.
Hamburg sat deeper throughout, absorbing Stuttgart's pressure with discipline and patience. Goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes and the defensive unit marshalled by Sebastiaan Bornauw largely kept Stuttgart's attacking threats — spearheaded by Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirović — at bay. Despite all their possession and pressure, Hoeneß's men could not convert their moments of opportunity.
Hamburg's yellow card discipline was tested in the latter stages. Warmed Omari was booked in the 54th minute for a foul, followed by Nicolás Capaldo in the 82nd and substitute Otto Emerson Stange — who had replaced Yussuf Poulsen in the 61st minute — in the 85th. Three bookings in the closing period reflected the tension on the pitch and Hamburg's determination to hold the line at any cost.
Stuttgart responded with a flurry of substitutions, introducing Chris Führich, Grischa Prömel, Dzenan Pejcinovic, and Leo Sauer from the bench in an attempt to unlock the Hamburg defence. Hamburg likewise turned to their bench, with Zakaria El Ouahdi, Albert Grønbæk Erlykke, and Terem Igobor Moffi all introduced around the 78th minute.
It was that change which proved decisive. El Ouahdi, on for barely ten minutes, delivered the assist that allowed Miro Muheim to fire home with his left foot in the 88th minute, stunning Stuttgart and sending the home crowd into raptures.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match analysis pointed towards a VfB Stuttgart victory, assigning them a 54% probability of winning, with Hamburg given just a 22% chance. The forecast carried a confidence level of 60/100, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the tie. Ultimately, the prediction proved incorrect. While the statistical narrative of the match aligned with our expectations — Stuttgart's dominance in possession, attacks, and shot volume all materialised — Hamburg's clinical counter-attacking efficiency in the final moments overturned the anticipated outcome. This is a reminder that low-possession, high-discipline setups can prevail against technically superior opponents.
Takeaways
- Muheim's 88th-minute winner was a textbook example of efficiency over dominance — Hamburg's third and most important shot on target decided the match.
- Stuttgart's inability to convert from 5 shots on target and 9 corners will be a significant point of reflection for Sebastian Hoeneß.
- Merlin Polzin's Hamburg absorbed pressure effectively, demonstrating resilience and tactical maturity despite facing a statistically superior opponent throughout.
- The triple booking in the final stages from Hamburg underlines just how hard-fought this result was to secure.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart: Hamburger SV 12W · 2D · VfB Stuttgart 14W.
12
Hamburger SV wins
2
Draws
14
VfB Stuttgart wins
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
PredictNext's AI model favours VfB Stuttgart with a 54% win probability — Hamburger SV 22%, draw 24%, VfB Stuttgart 54%.
What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart, generated with 60% model confidence.
Will Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart.
How accurate was the Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 1-0. The winner call was incorrect.