Copa Libertadores · Matchday
2026-05-28 00:30:00 · 08:30 · Estadio Campeón del Siglo
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 0-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 6.25 | -7.2% | -1.2% | 0.0% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.61 | 3.73 | 6.45 | -6.6% | -3.0% | +3.2% |
| 1xbet | 1.62 | 3.78 | 5.93 | -6.0% | -1.7% | -5.1% |
| WilliamHill | 1.60 | 3.40 | 5.80 | -7.2% | -11.6% | -7.2% |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.30 | 5.50 | -10.1% | -14.2% | -12.0% |
| bwin | 1.60 | 3.60 | 6.00 | -7.2% | -6.4% | -4.0% |
| Unibet | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.75 | -6.0% | -3.8% | -8.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.55 | 3.40 | 5.50 | -10.1% | -11.6% | -12.0% |
| 10Bet | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.10 | -3.1% | -3.8% | -18.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.70 | 5.80 | -7.8% | -3.8% | -7.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 6.00 | -6.0% | -3.8% | -4.0% |
| SboVALUE | 1.90 | 3.00 | 3.72 | +10.2% | -22.0% | -40.5% |
| CloudBetVALUE | 1.59 | 3.65 | 6.35 | -7.8% | -5.1% | +1.6% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 1.89 | 3.35 | 4.00 | +9.6% | -12.9% | -36.0% |
| Cashpoint | 1.60 | 3.60 | 6.16 | -7.2% | -6.4% | -1.4% |
| MelBet | 1.62 | 3.78 | 5.85 | -6.0% | -1.7% | -6.4% |
| Coral | 1.55 | 3.40 | 5.50 | -10.1% | -11.6% | -12.0% |
| Betsson | 1.70 | 3.45 | 4.95 | -1.4% | -10.3% | -20.8% |
| Interwetten | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.75 | -4.3% | -6.4% | -8.0% |
| Macauslot | 1.56 | 3.35 | 5.45 | -9.5% | -12.9% | -12.8% |
| 888Sport | 1.60 | 3.40 | 5.75 | -7.2% | -11.6% | -8.0% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.30 | +13.1% | -11.6% | -31.2% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Santa Fe Stun Peñarol in Copa Libertadores Upset
Santa Fe claimed a stunning 1-0 victory over Peñarol in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday, delivering one of the competition's more surprising results of the group stage. Despite playing the majority of the match on the back foot, Pablo Repetto's side executed a disciplined defensive plan to perfection, holding firm against a dominant Peñarol outfit and taking all three points back to Bogotá.
Match Analysis
The tone of the contest was set early. Alexis Zapata Álvarez broke the deadlock in the 13th minute, finishing with his left foot from an assist by Nahuel Bustos, and that solitary goal would prove enough to settle the tie. From that point on, Peñarol — coached by Diego Aguirre — poured forward in an increasingly desperate search for an equalizer, but repeatedly found themselves frustrated by a resolute Santa Fe backline.
The statistics paint a striking picture of a match dominated by the home side in almost every measurable category, yet ultimately lost. Peñarol controlled 63% of possession, completed 78% of their passes, registered 135 attacks to Santa Fe's 74, and generated 70 dangerous attacks compared to just 9 from the visitors. The Uruguayan giants also had 22 total shots, including 18 off target and 4 on target, won 9 corners against Santa Fe's 2, and recorded 12 key passes. And yet, the scoreboard told a different story.
Santa Fe's defensive resolve was underlined by their willingness to commit — 21 fouls across the 90 minutes reflects the physical commitment Repetto's men brought to disrupting Peñarol's rhythm. The visitors managed only 5 shots in total, with 3 on target, making their efficiency — scoring from a quarter of their shots on goal — in sharp contrast to Peñarol's wastefulness.
The second half brought a flurry of changes from Aguirre. Three substitutions at the break — Washington Darias Lafuente had already come on at 24' for Luis Angulo — saw Abel Hernández Platero, Emanuel Gularte Méndez, and Lucas Hernández Perdomo introduced simultaneously, a clear sign of urgency. The alterations could not unlock the Santa Fe defence, however, and the visitors managed the game shrewdly. Nahuel Bustos, who had assisted the opener, was withdrawn at 60', his job largely done. Alexis Zapata himself was replaced at 65', having made the decisive contribution moments after the whistle blew for the first time.
Bookings were spread across both sides — Gularte Méndez (53'), Marcelo Cabrera Rivero (82') for Peñarol, and Mateo Puerta Peláez (72'), Jeison Angulo Trujillo (83') for Santa Fe — though no player was dismissed.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast gave Peñarol a 58% probability of victory, with Santa Fe assigned only a 16% chance of winning. The prediction of a 1-0 home win proved incorrect. While the statistical dominance of Peñarol aligned with expectations of home control, the model underestimated Santa Fe's capacity to defend deep, absorb pressure, and convert a single opportunity into a matchwinning moment. Confidence was rated at 64/100, and the result serves as a reminder that territorial and statistical dominance in football does not guarantee goals.
Key Takeaways
- Clinical efficiency won the day — Santa Fe scored with one of just five shots, while Peñarol mustered 22 without reward.
- Peñarol's inability to convert dominance into goals will concern Diego Aguirre ahead of future fixtures.
- Santa Fe's defensive organisation under Pablo Repetto was exemplary — 21 fouls demonstrates the tactical discipline and willingness to do whatever necessary.
- A major upset in the Copa Libertadores, and a result that could have significant implications for group standings.
Peñarol vs Santa Fe Head-to-Head
Last 2 meetings between Peñarol and Santa Fe: Peñarol 0W · 1D · Santa Fe 1W.
0
Peñarol wins
1
Draws
1
Santa Fe wins
Peñarol vs Santa Fe — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Peñarol vs Santa Fe?
PredictNext's AI model favours Peñarol (also known as Penarol) with a 58% win probability — Peñarol 58%, draw 26%, Santa Fe 16%.
What is the predicted score for Peñarol vs Santa Fe?
The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Peñarol vs Santa Fe, generated with 64% model confidence.
Will Peñarol vs Santa Fe have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for under 2.5 goals in Peñarol vs Santa Fe.
How accurate was the Peñarol vs Santa Fe prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 0-1. The winner call was incorrect.