LDU Quito 3–2 Palmeiras | Copa Libertadores | Second Leg, 16 September 2026

Result Summary

In a chaotic and captivating second leg at Casa Blanca, LDU Quito eliminated Palmeiras from the Copa Libertadores with a 3–2 victory, completing a dramatic comeback on the night. The Ecuadorian side outplayed their Brazilian opponents across the full 90 minutes, ultimately relying on a stunning hat-trick from Michael Steveen Estrada Martínez — including two goals deep into stoppage time — to seal one of the more extraordinary results in this season's competition.

Match Analysis

If the scoreline suggests a tight contest, the underlying statistics tell a very different story. LDU Quito dominated this match comprehensively, holding 69% possession compared to Palmeiras's 31%, completing 89% of their passes versus Palmeiras's 70%, and generating 145 attacks to Palmeiras's 56. LDU also led in dangerous attacks (62 to 24), corners (10 to 4), and total shots (16 to 11).

Yet the opening exchanges were utterly breathless. Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira gave Palmeiras the lead within the first minute, only for Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta to equalise in the second. Mauricio Magalhães Prado restored Palmeiras's advantage in the third minute, and Joaquín Piquerez Moreira extended it to 2–1 in the fifth. Michael Estrada pulled one back for LDU in the sixth minute before Fernando Cornejo levelled at 2–2 in the eighth. Felipe Anderson Pereira Gomes then put Palmeiras ahead again in the ninth minute, and Marlon Rodrigues Freitas added a fifth goal of the opening ten minutes in the tenth — a right-footed strike that made it 3–2 to the visitors.

Ten goals in the opening ten minutes seemed impossible; instead, just one arrived in the second phase of the match, as Luis Geovanny Segovia Vega, assisted by Lucas Rodríguez, headed LDU level at 3–3 on the night in the 15th minute.

The match then settled considerably, becoming a battle of control versus counter. LDU's statistical dominance reasserted itself. A red card for a Palmeiras player in the 68th minute — awarded for an argument — shifted the balance further in the hosts' favour, and Palmeiras were reduced to ten men for the final twenty-plus minutes.

The decisive moments arrived in stoppage time. Estrada Martínez struck from the right in the 90th minute to give LDU the lead for the first time, and then, in the 93rd minute, he completed his hat-trick with a header assisted by substitute Alexander Alvarado — an extraordinary finish to an extraordinary match. Estrada was booked in the 90+5' for unsportsmanlike conduct, a minor footnote to a heroic individual performance.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 LDU Quito victory, with a 37% probability assigned to the home side — the highest of the three outcomes. While the scoreline bore no resemblance to the predicted margin (5–5 across 90 minutes before the late drama), the directional prediction proved correct: LDU Quito won. With a confidence rating of just 53/100, the model appropriately flagged this as a competitive tie, and the match delivered every bit of that uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• Estrada Martínez was the defining figure, scoring a hat-trick including the winning goal in the 93rd minute.
• LDU's statistical dominance — particularly in possession and attacks — eventually proved decisive despite conceding three times.
• Palmeiras's red card in the 68th minute proved a pivotal moment in the tie's conclusion.
• Coach Gustavo Álvarez guided LDU Quito to an elimination of a historically formidable Copa Libertadores side, a result that will resonate across South American football.