Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
1 vs 2

Major League Soccer · Matchday

2026-10-24 23:30:00 · 07:30 · Subaru Park

New England
New England

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 1-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Philadelphia Union
PHI
2 - 1
New England
NER
66%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
60.0%Home
21.0%Draw
19.0%Away
60.0%Home
20.8%Draw
19.2%Away
**Philadelphia Union** hold the edge at home, where they've historically been difficult to break down. With a 58% win probability favoring the hosts, their defensive structure and home crowd advantage create problems for **New England**, who face an uphill battle on the road. Watch for Union's midfield control to be the decisive tactical factor in limiting New England's transition play. AI pick: Philadelphia Union Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredPHI or Draw
81% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
52% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreMilan IloskiAlso: Bruno Damiani, Ezekiel Alladoh

Goal Probability

PHI NER
0%
40%
0
33%
60%
1
52%
0%
2
15%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

60%
61%
-1.2%
21%
20%
+0.6%
19%
19%
+0.6%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3651.504.605.25-10.0%-3.4%-0.2%
PinnacleVALUE1.524.705.34-8.8%-1.3%+1.5%
1xbetVALUE1.574.805.32-5.8%+0.8%+1.1%
WilliamHill1.534.204.80-8.2%-11.8%-8.8%
Betfair1.504.755.00-10.0%-0.3%-5.0%
bwin1.534.605.00-8.2%-3.4%-5.0%
Ladbrokes1.504.334.60-10.0%-9.1%-12.6%
Coral1.504.334.60-10.0%-9.1%-12.6%
MelBet1.544.705.20-7.6%-1.3%-1.2%
Marathonbet1.514.605.10-9.4%-3.4%-3.1%
BetVictor1.504.405.00-10.0%-7.6%-5.0%
DafabetVALUE1.524.805.40-8.8%+0.8%+2.6%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution | MLS | October 24, 2026

Result Summary

In a dramatic late-night MLS encounter at Philadelphia, New England Revolution pulled off a surprising away victory, defeating the Philadelphia Union 1–2. The decisive blow was struck deep into first-half stoppage time, and despite Philadelphia's persistent pressure throughout the contest, the Union could only manage a consolation goal deep into injury time. It was a result that defied the statistical dominance shown by the home side across much of the ninety-plus minutes.

Match Analysis

Philadelphia Union entered this contest under coach Ryan Richter as the clear statistical favorites on the night, and the numbers broadly reflect their superiority in territory and creativity. The Union registered 12 total shots to New England's 7, generated 120 attacks to 99, and recorded an impressive 85 dangerous attacks compared to just 51 for Marko Mitrovic's side. Key passes told a similar story — 17 for Philadelphia versus just 8 for New England — highlighting just how thoroughly the home side dominated in chance creation.

Yet football has a cruel habit of rewarding efficiency over volume, and New England demonstrated that ruthlessly. Their crucial breakthrough came in the 45+3rd minute, when Dor Turgeman converted with a right foot shot, assisted by Peyton Miller — a sucker-punch right on the stroke of half-time that gave the Revolution a lead their overall play had barely merited. Critically, New England managed 4 shots on target to Philadelphia's 3, underlining how effectively they converted their limited opportunities.

A turbulent five-minute spell in the mid-second half saw the match's disciplinary flashpoint. Bruno Damiani (61') and Jovan Lukić (63') both received yellow cards for the Union within quick succession, before New England's Jackson Yueill was cautioned at 65' for a foul. Philadelphia's disciplinary fragility — 14 fouls committed compared to New England's 7 — disrupted their rhythm at a critical juncture.

Coach Richter turned to the bench, introducing Agustin Anello for Indiana Vassilev at 68', and later Malik Jakupovic replaced Nathan Harriel at 82', as Philadelphia threw bodies forward in search of a leveller. New England, meanwhile, managed the game shrewdly with a flurry of late substitutions — Brooklyn Raines, Mamadou Fofana, Wilson Harris, Diego Santiago Fagúndez Pepe, and Judah Siqueira all came on in the final stages to protect the lead.

Philadelphia's persistence was rewarded only in the 90+12th minute, when Neil Pierre — assisted by Kai Wagner — pulled one back. But it was too little, too late, and New England held on for all three points despite 53% possession belonging to the home side.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match analysis had forecast a 2–1 Philadelphia Union win, assigning a 60% probability to the home side and just 19% to a New England victory. With a confidence rating of 66/100, the prediction proved incorrect. While Philadelphia's statistical performance aligned broadly with expectations — dominating possession, attacks, and key passes — New England's clinical efficiency in front of goal and defensive resilience undermined the forecast. The late concession in first-half stoppage time proved the turning point our model failed to adequately account for.

Key Takeaways

  • New England were clinical where it mattered, converting their chances more effectively despite being outplayed in most attacking metrics.
  • Philadelphia's high foul count (14) and back-to-back yellow cards disrupted their momentum at a critical stage of the second half.
  • Dor Turgeman's injury-time first-half goal was the decisive moment — a reminder that timing in football can outweigh territorial dominance.
  • The Union's late Neil Pierre goal offered scant consolation, highlighting how Philadelphia's volume of chances (12 shots, 17 key passes) simply wasn't converted when it mattered most.

Philadelphia Union vs New England Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and New England: Philadelphia Union 26W · 8D · New England 11W.

26

8

11

Sat, May 9, 2026New England2-1Philadelphia Union
Sat, Sep 20, 2025Philadelphia Union1-0New England
Sun, Mar 9, 2025New England0-2Philadelphia Union
Wed, Jul 17, 2024Philadelphia Union5-1New England
Sat, May 18, 2024New England0-3Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union vs New England — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New England?

PredictNext's AI model favours Philadelphia Union with a 60% win probability — Philadelphia Union 60%, draw 21%, New England 19%.

What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New England?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs New England, generated with 66% model confidence.

Will Philadelphia Union vs New England have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Philadelphia Union vs New England.

How accurate was the Philadelphia Union vs New England prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 1-2. The winner call was incorrect.

More Major League Soccer AI Predictions