Major League Soccer · Matchday
2026-07-22 23:30:00 · 07:30 · Subaru Park
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 3-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 | -9.0% | -10.3% | -2.5% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.71 | 4.24 | 4.25 | -11.1% | -2.5% | +6.3% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.75 | 4.25 | 4.41 | -9.0% | -2.2% | +10.3% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 | -11.6% | -12.6% | +5.0% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | -11.6% | -3.4% | +5.0% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -11.6% | -5.7% | +5.0% |
| UnibetVALUE | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.40 | -13.2% | -3.4% | +10.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -13.2% | -10.3% | 0.0% |
| 10Bet | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 | -10.0% | -5.7% | 0.0% |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.90 | -11.6% | -10.3% | -2.5% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.20 | -8.0% | -3.4% | +5.0% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.10 | 4.25 | -12.1% | -5.7% | +6.3% |
| CloudBetVALUE | 1.68 | 4.15 | 4.15 | -12.6% | -4.5% | +3.8% |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -13.2% | -10.3% | 0.0% |
| MansionBet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.00 | -10.6% | -8.0% | 0.0% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.72 | 4.16 | 4.32 | -10.6% | -4.3% | +8.0% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red Bulls | MLS Match Analysis
July 22, 2026 | Subaru Park
Result Summary
Philadelphia Union delivered a commanding home performance on Wednesday night, dismantling New York Red Bulls 3–1 in an Eastern Conference clash that proved far more one-sided than the possession statistics might suggest. Ryan Richter's side were clinical in front of goal, while Michael Bradley's visitors struggled to convert their ball dominance into meaningful chances when it mattered most.
Match Analysis
The tone was set early when Milan Iloski broke the deadlock in the 9th minute, finishing with a composed right-foot shot to give the Union an early foothold. Philadelphia were aggressive and direct from the outset, and that early lead only reinforced their intent.
New York Red Bulls did respond before half-time. Cade Cowell levelled matters in the 38th minute, converting a right-foot effort assisted by Emil Forsberg, briefly suggesting the visitors could leverage their superior ball retention into a result. Indeed, the statistics tell a familiar modern story — New York dominated possession at 63% and recorded a higher successful pass percentage of 84% compared to Philadelphia's 69%. Yet possession without penetration proved costly.
The Union's quality in dangerous areas was evident throughout. Philadelphia registered 24 total shots to New York's 10, with 10 shots on target versus the visitors' 5. Perhaps most telling were the 17 key passes generated by Philadelphia compared to just 7 from New York, highlighting just how effectively Ryan Richter's side turned ball recoveries into attacking threats.
The decisive period came early in the second half. Just one minute after Neil Pierre entered the pitch as a substitute, Indiana Vassilev restored Philadelphia's lead in the 57th minute, finishing with his left foot from Frankie Westfield's assist. It was a goal that underlined the Union's directness and the quality in their attacking options. Then, in the 66th minute, the newly-introduced Neil Pierre made an immediate impact, heading home from Kai Wagner's delivery to make it 3–1 and effectively seal the three points.
New York's frustration mounted in the final stages. Ronald Donkor was booked for a foul in the 77th minute, followed by yellows for Omar Javier Valencia Arauz (85') and substitute Gustav Berggren (88') for an argument — a trio of bookings that reflected the visitors' growing indiscipline as the match slipped away. Philadelphia's 8 corners to New York's 6 further illustrated the Union's territorial authority in key moments.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Philadelphia Union win, assigning a 52% probability to a home victory with a confidence rating of 59/100. While the exact scoreline underestimated Philadelphia's attacking output — the Union ultimately won by a comfortable two-goal margin — the outcome prediction was correct. The home side's ability to generate dangerous attacks (84 to New York's 55) and convert key chances proved decisive, validating the lean toward a Union victory despite New York's possession advantage.
Key Takeaways
- Philadelphia were ruthlessly efficient, converting chances from a position of fewer possessions — a genuine counter-attacking and transitional threat under Ryan Richter.
- Neil Pierre's immediate impact off the bench (a goal within minutes of coming on) was a standout subplot and a significant tactical win for the coaching staff.
- New York's possession game (63%) failed to translate into genuine danger, with only 5 shots on target revealing a lack of cutting edge in the final third.
- Three yellow cards in the final 15 minutes underscores the mental fatigue and frustration that set in for Michael Bradley's side after the tie was effectively decided.
Philadelphia Union vs New York RB Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and New York RB: Philadelphia Union 17W · 9D · New York RB 15W.
17
Philadelphia Union wins
9
Draws
15
New York RB wins
Philadelphia Union vs New York RB — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York RB?
PredictNext's AI model favours Philadelphia Union with a 52% win probability — Philadelphia Union 52%, draw 23%, New York RB 25%.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New York RB?
The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs New York RB, generated with 59% model confidence.
Will Philadelphia Union vs New York RB have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Philadelphia Union vs New York RB.
How accurate was the Philadelphia Union vs New York RB prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 3-1. The winner call was correct.