SJ Earthquakes
SJ Earthquakes
0 vs 4

Major League Soccer · Matchday

2026-07-23 02:30:00 · 10:30 · PayPal Park

Orlando City
Orlando City

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 0-4

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

SJ Earthquakes
SJE
2 - 1
Orlando City
ORL
69%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
62.0%Home
20.0%Draw
18.0%Away
64.9%Home
19.5%Draw
15.6%Away
**SJ Earthquakes** enter this MLS clash as slight home favorites, backed by a 59% win probability despite **Orlando City** holding the edge in recent H2H meetings. With lineups still pending, the home advantage at PayPal Park could prove the decisive factor, particularly if San Jose's attack exploits Orlando's historically inconsistent away form. AI pick: SJ Earthquakes Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredSJE or Draw
82% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
58% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

SJE ORL
0%
43%
0
34%
57%
1
49%
0%
2
16%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

62%
61%
+0.5%
20%
20%
+0.3%
18%
19%
-0.8%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
Pinnacle1.534.974.93-5.1%-0.6%-11.3%
1xbet1.574.995.15-2.7%-0.2%-7.3%
WilliamHill1.534.504.75-5.1%-10.0%-14.5%
Betfair1.504.755.00-7.0%-5.0%-10.0%
bwin1.534.755.00-5.1%-5.0%-10.0%
Unibet1.494.755.40-7.6%-5.0%-2.8%
Ladbrokes1.504.504.60-7.0%-10.0%-17.2%
Marathonbet1.514.804.95-6.4%-4.0%-10.9%
10Bet1.504.605.30-7.0%-8.0%-4.6%
BetVictor1.504.755.25-7.0%-5.0%-5.5%
MelBet1.544.885.00-4.5%-2.4%-10.0%
Coral1.504.504.60-7.0%-10.0%-17.2%
CloudBet1.504.854.80-7.0%-3.0%-13.6%
Sbo1.454.384.83-10.1%-12.4%-13.1%
MansionBet1.544.504.85-4.5%-10.0%-12.7%
Dafabet1.545.005.20-4.5%0.0%-6.4%
Macauslot1.434.704.60-11.3%-6.0%-17.2%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Orlando City Deliver Dominant Away Display to Stun San Jose

Orlando City produced a stunning performance at San Jose's expense on Wednesday night, running out emphatic 4-0 winners to hand the Earthquakes a humiliating home defeat. Martín Perelman's side were clinical, ruthless, and utterly convincing across 90 minutes, while Bruce Arena's team struggled to convert a surprisingly active attacking output into anything resembling a threat on goal.

Match Analysis

The tone was set almost immediately. David Brekalo opened the scoring inside seven minutes, heading home from an Eduard Atuesta delivery to put Orlando firmly in the driver's seat. The Earthquakes, to their credit, continued to press forward — the statistics eventually showed San Jose edging possession at 52% to 48% and generating 109 attacks to Orlando's 93 — but the Lions were devastatingly effective on the counter.

Iván Angulo Cortés doubled the advantage in the 29th minute with a right-footed finish, again laid on by the influential Atuesta, who was everywhere in the first half and collected a deserved yellow card at the 36th minute for his physical approach. San Jose went into the break two goals down despite 81% pass success and eight shots on target across 45 minutes — a damning indictment of their finishing and final-third decision-making.

The second half brought no relief for the hosts. Antoine Griezmann made it three just three minutes after the restart, finishing coolly with his left foot from a Justin Ellis assist, effectively killing the contest. The Earthquakes were visibly rattled, with Ronaldo Vieira and Preston Judd both picking up yellow cards in quick succession during a fractious midfield battle. Braian Ojeda Rodríguez completed the rout with a 72nd-minute header off another Atuesta delivery — his third assist of the night before he was withdrawn in the 79th minute.

Despite the scoreline, San Jose's 7 shots on target compared to Orlando's 8 suggests the raw numbers were closer than the scoreline implies, though 13 key passes for Orlando City against just 8 for the Earthquakes tells a truer story of where the quality resided. The Earthquakes also frustrated themselves with seven offsides and committed 20 fouls — double Orlando's total of 10 — pointing to a side increasingly desperate and disorganized as the match progressed.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match analysis had forecast a 2-1 home victory for the Earthquakes, with a 62% probability assigned to a San Jose win — a prediction that proved entirely wide of the mark. The model identified San Jose's home advantage and attacking potential as decisive factors, but Orlando's efficiency in front of goal and Atuesta's creative dominance simply could not have been anticipated at that level of confidence. The 4-0 scoreline was a sharp reminder that possession statistics and attack counts alone cannot predict clinical finishing, and that Orlando City's quality on the day — particularly in transition — was thoroughly underestimated.

Takeaways

  • Eduard Atuesta was the game's standout performer, registering three assists before being substituted late on.
  • Bruce Arena's Earthquakes face serious questions about their defensive structure and ability to convert territorial dominance into goals.
  • Orlando's four different scorers demonstrated a commendable collective threat, not reliance on any single attacker.
  • San Jose's 20 fouls and 4 yellow cards reflected a growing desperation that only compounded their evening.
  • Martín Perelman will take enormous satisfaction from an away performance of this quality, keeping his side firmly in Eastern Conference contention.

SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between SJ Earthquakes and Orlando City: SJ Earthquakes 1W · 3D · Orlando City 3W.

1

3

3

Sun, May 19, 2024SJ Earthquakes0-1Orlando City
Wed, Jun 23, 2021Orlando City5-0SJ Earthquakes
Sun, Sep 1, 2019SJ Earthquakes3-0Orlando City
Sat, Apr 21, 2018Orlando City3-2SJ Earthquakes
Thu, May 18, 2017SJ Earthquakes1-1Orlando City

SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City?

PredictNext's AI model favours SJ Earthquakes with a 62% win probability — SJ Earthquakes 62%, draw 20%, Orlando City 18%.

What is the predicted score for SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City, generated with 69% model confidence.

Will SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City.

How accurate was the SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 0-4. The winner call was incorrect.

More Major League Soccer AI Predictions