Serie A · Matchday
2026-10-25 14:00:00 · 22:00 · Gewiss Stadium
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 4-4
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.90 | 4.33 | 3.30 | -1.2% | -0.4% | -17.5% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.94 | 4.20 | 3.62 | +0.9% | -3.4% | -9.5% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.94 | 4.40 | 3.35 | +0.9% | +1.2% | -16.2% |
| WilliamHill | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.30 | -0.7% | -12.6% | -17.5% |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.40 | -2.8% | -10.3% | -15.0% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.95 | 4.10 | 3.30 | +1.4% | -5.7% | -17.5% |
| UnibetVALUE | 1.93 | 4.00 | 3.30 | +0.4% | -8.0% | -17.5% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.30 | +1.4% | -8.0% | -17.5% |
| Interwetten | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.50 | -1.2% | -3.4% | -12.5% |
| MelBet | 1.92 | 4.34 | 3.30 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -17.5% |
| MansionBet | 1.87 | 4.10 | 3.70 | -2.8% | -5.7% | -7.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 4.10 | 3.62 | -0.7% | -5.7% | -9.5% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.30 | +1.4% | -8.0% | -17.5% |
| Sbo | 1.79 | 3.67 | 3.39 | -6.9% | -15.6% | -15.2% |
| Macauslot | 1.90 | 4.00 | 2.97 | -1.2% | -8.0% | -25.7% |
| BetVictorVALUE | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.25 | +1.4% | -3.4% | -18.8% |
| DafabetVALUE | 2.04 | 4.20 | 3.20 | +6.1% | -3.4% | -20.0% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Atalanta 4–4 Frosinone: Eight-Goal Thriller Defies Expectations
Result Summary
Bergamo's Gewiss Stadium was the setting for one of Serie A's most chaotic afternoons of the season, as Atalanta and Frosinone shared the spoils in a breathless 4–4 draw. Under the management of Maurizio Sarri, Atalanta twice led and twice were pegged back, ultimately unable to hold off a Frosinone side marshalled by Massimiliano Alvini that showed remarkable resilience throughout.
Match Analysis
The contest was barely a minute old when Romano Schmid gave Frosinone a shock lead with a right-footed finish, immediately setting the tone for the extraordinary afternoon ahead. Atalanta recovered well, with Nikola Krstović — who would prove central to everything the hosts produced — equalising in the 14th minute, assisted by Charles De Ketelaere. The calm, however, was short-lived. Schmid struck again on 17 minutes, this time set up by Farès Ghedjemis, handing Frosinone a second lead inside the opening quarter-hour.
A VAR decision involving De Ketelaere at the 29-minute mark added further disruption, coinciding with Raoul Bellanova being replaced by Lorenzo Bernasconi. Atalanta regrouped and Krstović delivered again on the stroke of half-time, converting an assist from Davide Zappacosta to restore parity heading into the break — a crucial intervention that kept the hosts alive.
The second half opened with the same relentless tempo. Just three minutes after the restart, Frosinone substitute Aleksa Terzić — who had replaced the booked Gabriele Bracaglia at half-time — contributed to the chaos as Giacomo Calò nudged the visitors back in front, finishing off a Ghedjemis delivery on 48 minutes. Atalanta responded almost immediately: Eljif Elmas levelled in the 50th minute with a right-footed strike assisted by Krstović, making the Montenegrin forward directly involved in three of Atalanta's four goals.
The match appeared to be settling toward a frenetic but contained draw when Terzić, increasingly influential after coming on, rifled in a left-footed effort on 82 minutes to restore Frosinone's advantage. Atalanta were unable to find a fifth equaliser, finishing at 4–4. The statistics told a fascinating story: Frosinone dominated possession at 54%, generated a remarkable 107 attacks to Atalanta's 64, and produced 10 shots on target to Atalanta's 9. Despite playing at home, Atalanta were largely second-best in the control metrics, yet remained dangerous throughout their 22 total shots.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast favoured an Atalanta home win at 52% probability, with the draw assigned just 23% — ultimately the correct result. With a confidence rating of 63/100, the model correctly identified Atalanta's threat but significantly underestimated Frosinone's attacking output. Ghedjemis registering three assists and Schmid scoring a brace were not scenarios our analysis had placed high weight on. The sheer volume of Frosinone's attacking actions — nearly 72 dangerous attacks — underscores how heavily the model undervalued Alvini's side on the day.
Key Takeaways
- Krstović was Atalanta's standout performer, scoring twice and assisting the third goal, but his substitution on 77 minutes removed their most direct outlet at a critical stage.
- Ghedjemis orchestrated Frosinone's attack with three assists, exposing vulnerabilities in Atalanta's defensive structure throughout.
- Frosinone's substitutions shifted the game — Terzić arrived at half-time and scored the 82nd-minute winner that denied Atalanta all three points.
- A point may flatter Atalanta given the balance of play, though Sarri's side showed admirable character in recovering from going behind on
Atalanta vs Frosinone Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Frosinone: Atalanta 5W · 2D · Frosinone 1W.
5
Atalanta wins
2
Draws
1
Frosinone wins
Atalanta vs Frosinone — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
PredictNext's AI model favours Atalanta with a 52% win probability — Atalanta 52%, draw 23%, Frosinone 25%.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Frosinone?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Atalanta vs Frosinone, generated with 63% model confidence.
Will Atalanta vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Frosinone.
How accurate was the Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 4-4. The winner call was incorrect.