Europa League · Matchday
2026-10-15 16:45:00 · 00:45 · AFAS Stadion
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-0|Actual: 2-1
AI Prediction
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Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 | -15.5% | +15.5% | +17.0% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.30 | 5.69 | 8.70 | -15.5% | +25.2% | +13.1% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.32 | 5.73 | 9.60 | -14.2% | +26.1% | +24.8% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | -15.5% | +10.0% | +10.5% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 | -18.8% | +21.0% | +23.5% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.25 | -13.5% | +21.0% | +7.3% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | -13.5% | +21.0% | +4.0% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.30 | 5.60 | 9.40 | -15.5% | +23.2% | +22.2% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | -13.5% | +21.0% | +4.0% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.31 | 5.65 | 9.50 | -14.8% | +24.3% | +23.5% |
| SboVALUE | 1.26 | 5.10 | 7.40 | -18.1% | +12.2% | -3.8% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 1.27 | 5.20 | 7.50 | -17.4% | +14.4% | -2.5% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.00 | -15.5% | +32.0% | +17.0% |
Polymarket Odds
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Match Report
AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Europa League | 15 October 2026
Result Summary
AZ Alkmaar secured a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Hapoel Be'er Sheva at home in the Europa League, with both goals arriving in a ferocious second-half opening spell. The Dutch side showed the composure required to hold on despite a brief Hapoel equaliser, collecting three important points under coach Leeroy Echteld. For Ran Kozuch's visitors, a spirited response was ultimately not enough to prevent defeat.
Match Analysis
The first half was a largely disciplined, if fractious, affair. Hapoel's Pedro Miguel Santos Amador picked up a yellow card for a foul in the 39th minute, while AZ's Seiya Maikuma was booked in first-half stoppage time for an argument, setting a combative tone that would carry into the second period. The statistics tell a clear story of AZ's dominance: 59% possession, 167 attacks to Hapoel's 68, and 53 dangerous attacks compared to the visitors' 29. AZ also registered 15 total shots to Hapoel's 6, with 7 on target versus 4, underlining their sustained pressure throughout the ninety minutes.
The breakthrough arrived four minutes into the second half, when Peer Koopmeiners converted with a right-foot shot following an assist from Valdemar Byskov Andreasen (49'). It was a deserved lead, reflecting AZ's control of the contest. However, Hapoel responded almost immediately. In the 52nd minute, a flurry of yellow cards — Ayoub Oufkir for AZ and Eliel Peretz for Hapoel, both for arguments — signalled rising tensions. Just three minutes later, Forson Amankwah levelled for the visitors with a composed left-foot finish, assisted by Zahi Ahmed (55'), silencing the home crowd momentarily and giving Hapoel genuine belief.
Coach Echteld reacted swiftly, introducing Denso Kasius and Calvin Stengs in the 61st minute, and the changes proved telling. AZ regained their foothold, and a VAR decision involving Bendegúz Kovács at the 75th minute appeared to be a significant moment in their favour, though the details of the intervention ultimately reinforced AZ's position on the pitch. Mexx Meerdink was introduced for Kovács shortly after. Despite further bookings for Djibril Thialaw Diop (76'), Calvin Stengs (78'), and Denso Kasius (83'), AZ managed the closing stages with the required discipline. AZ's 85% successful pass percentage compared to Hapoel's 77% reflects their technical superiority on the day, and their 5 corners to 1 further illustrates how consistently they pinned the visitors back.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–0 AZ Alkmaar win, with a 65% probability assigned to a home victory. The result — a 2–1 AZ win — confirmed the correct outcome, even if Hapoel's equaliser briefly complicated the narrative. With a confidence level of 58/100, the analysis acknowledged there was meaningful uncertainty, and Amankwah's goal for Be'er Sheva validated that caution. The final scoreline was one goal different from our forecast, but the directional prediction held firm.
Key Takeaways
- AZ Alkmaar's second-half substitutions were decisive in managing momentum after Hapoel's equaliser.
- Peer Koopmeiners proved the match-winner, contributing the crucial opener in a tightly contested encounter.
- Forson Amankwah's immediate response demonstrated Hapoel's threat on the counter, despite being outplayed for large stretches.
- The eight yellow cards across both sides reflect a match that never lacked intensity.
- AZ's statistical dominance suggests they are a genuine force in this Europa League campaign.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
PredictNext's AI model favours AZ Alkmaar with a 65% win probability — AZ Alkmaar 65%, draw 22%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 13%.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The AI forecasts a 2-0 scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
How accurate was the AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-0; the match finished 2-1. The winner call was correct.