FA Cup · Matchday
2026-10-17 14:00:00 · 22:00 · Gigg Lane
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-2|Actual: 1-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.83 | -4.8% | -11.2% | -12.2% |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.86 | 1.76 | -1.4% | -7.4% | -15.5% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 3.80 | 3.72 | 1.74 | +6.4% | -10.7% | -16.5% |
| WilliamHill | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.83 | -2.0% | -16.0% | -12.2% |
| BetfairVALUE | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.80 | +0.8% | -8.8% | -13.6% |
| bwinVALUE | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.82 | +5.0% | -18.4% | -12.6% |
| UnibetVALUE | 3.70 | 3.45 | 1.79 | +3.6% | -17.2% | -14.1% |
| Ladbrokes | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.83 | -4.8% | -13.6% | -12.2% |
| Cashpoint | 3.27 | 3.60 | 1.90 | -8.4% | -13.6% | -8.8% |
| DafabetVALUE | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.95 | +0.8% | -4.0% | -6.4% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 3.72 | 3.72 | 1.72 | +4.2% | -10.7% | -17.4% |
| BetssonVALUE | 3.95 | 3.60 | 1.78 | +10.6% | -13.6% | -14.6% |
| CloudBetVALUE | 4.65 | 3.50 | 1.58 | +30.2% | -16.0% | -24.2% |
| MelBetVALUE | 4.05 | 3.65 | 1.82 | +13.4% | -12.4% | -12.6% |
| Interwetten | 3.40 | 3.65 | 1.90 | -4.8% | -12.4% | -8.8% |
| Coral | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.83 | -4.8% | -13.6% | -12.2% |
| BetVictorVALUE | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.80 | +6.4% | -6.4% | -13.6% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Bury vs Harrogate Town — FA Cup Post-Match Analysis
Date: 17 October 2026 | Competition: FA Cup | Final Score: Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town
Result Summary
A dramatic two-minute spell just before half-time produced all the action in this FA Cup encounter at Bury, as the two sides cancelled each other out to finish level at 1–1. Ciaran McGuckin gave Harrogate Town the lead in the 39th minute, only for Kai Evans to restore parity almost immediately in the 41st, leaving Anthony Johnson's Bury and Simon Weaver's Harrogate Town to share the spoils and set up what promises to be a compelling replay.
Match Analysis
Despite Harrogate Town enjoying the greater share of possession — 55% to Bury's 45% — it was the home side who arguably made better use of their opportunities when it mattered most. Harrogate's territorial dominance was reflected in their shot volume, registering 12 total shots to Bury's 9, but their accuracy let them down. Simon Weaver's side fired 9 shots off target, compared to just 4 from Bury, and managed only 3 shots on target versus the home side's 5. That conversion of pressure into quality chances was a recurring problem for the visitors throughout.
Bury, despite sitting deeper with less of the ball, proved more dangerous in concentrated bursts. Their 64 dangerous attacks to Harrogate's 50 underlines that Anthony Johnson's side were effective at creating genuine threat despite operating on the counter. The corner count was fairly even — 5 for Bury, 6 for Harrogate — and both sides' foul counts reflected a competitive contest, with Harrogate committing 17 fouls to Bury's 14.
The defining passage of the match came in those two extraordinary minutes approaching half-time. McGuckin's goal in the 39th minute appeared to hand Harrogate the momentum heading into the break, but Evans' swift equaliser just two minutes later completely changed the complexion of the game. Going in level at the interval likely suited Bury more, given that Harrogate had been the side investing more energy in dictating the tempo.
The second half, by implication of the final statistics, saw neither side break the deadlock despite continued attacking intent from both teams. Harrogate's inability to convert their possession advantage into a winning goal will be a source of frustration for Weaver, while Johnson will be satisfied his side remained resolute and took their opportunity when it arrived.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast had anticipated a Harrogate Town victory, assigning a 48% probability to that outcome against a 24% chance of a draw and 28% for a Bury win. The confidence level was appropriately measured at 46/100, acknowledging genuine uncertainty in this tie. Ultimately, the prediction proved incorrect — the draw was within the range of modelled outcomes, and the closeness of the actual statistics suggests the match was genuinely competitive, making the 1–1 result a fair reflection of the contest.
Key Takeaways
- Bury were clinical despite less possession, converting their moments of danger more efficiently than their opponents.
- Harrogate's shot accuracy was a critical weakness, with 9 of their 12 shots failing to trouble the goalkeeper.
- The double-strike before half-time was the decisive sequence, and neither team managed to find a winner thereafter.
- Both managers will now prepare for a replay, with Weaver needing to address his side's finishing and Johnson looking to build on a resilient home display.
Bury vs Harrogate Town — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bury vs Harrogate Town?
PredictNext's AI model favours Harrogate Town with a 48% win probability — Bury 28%, draw 24%, Harrogate Town 48%.
What is the predicted score for Bury vs Harrogate Town?
The AI forecasts a 1-2 scoreline for Bury vs Harrogate Town, generated with 46% model confidence.
Will Bury vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Bury vs Harrogate Town.
How accurate was the Bury vs Harrogate Town prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-2; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.