Celje 2–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Champions League Qualifying — Second Leg Review

An extraordinary opening five minutes and a dramatic extra-time equaliser defined this absorbing second-leg tie, as Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë shared a breathless 2–2 draw at the NK Celje stadium on July 28th, 2026.

Match Analysis

If supporters arrived even a few minutes late, they missed a contest that had already been turned on its head. Svit Sešlar opened the scoring in just the 1st minute, before Artemijus Tutyškinas doubled Celje's advantage in the 3rd minute. Egnatia hit back almost immediately through Arbenit Xhemajli in the 4th minute, and then, remarkably, Yaya Dukuly restored the two-goal cushion in the 5th minute — four goals in five extraordinary minutes of football.

The chaos of the opening exchanges gave way to a more measured contest, though misfortune struck Celje when Darko Hrka turned the ball into his own net in the 21st minute, narrowing the deficit once again. Celje showed resilience, however, and Mario Kvesić restored their lead with a field goal in the 34th minute, making it 4–2 on the scoreline before half-time settled proceedings.

Celje carried the statistical weight of the match, enjoying 57% ball possession and registering 7 total shots to Egnatia's 4, with 4 shots on target compared to 2 for the visitors. Their 179 attacks to Egnatia's 139, and 96 dangerous attacks to 71, painted a picture of a home side largely in control — yet unable to fully put the tie to bed.

The match grew increasingly physical as it progressed. Papa Mustapha Daniel and Yaya Dukuly both received yellow cards for Celje in the 68th and 73rd minutes respectively, while Egnatia collected three bookings in quick succession late in normal time — Fernando Medeiros da Silva (81'), Ildi Gruda (90+1'), and Guillem Jaime Serrano (90+3'). Egnatia's 20 fouls compared to Celje's 12 underlined their more aggressive approach as the tie wore on.

Extra time proved decisive for the away side. Geralb Smajli, introduced from the bench in the 98th minute, struck in the 114th minute with an assist from Edison Ndreca to level the tie on the night and force what will surely be a dramatic conclusion to this two-legged affair. The goal capped a significant impact from Egnatia's substitutes, with both Ndreca and Smajli influencing the tie after coming on.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a Celje win (2–1), with a 62% probability assigned to the home side and a confidence rating of 65/100. While the scoreline partially aligned — Celje did lead for much of the contest — the prediction ultimately fell short. The late drama in extra time, sparked by a substitute's intervention, produced the draw that our model considered the second most likely outcome at 21%. The prediction is marked as incorrect, a reminder of how fine margins in knockout qualifying ties can confound even well-supported forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• The opening five minutes were among the most frantic seen in early Champions League qualifying, featuring four goals across two sides
• Celje's statistical dominance did not translate into a safe margin, leaving them vulnerable to Egnatia's late pressure
• Geralb Smajli's 114th-minute goal was the decisive moment, demonstrating the potential impact of well-timed substitutions in extra time
• With the tie level, both sides face a final reckoning — and neither can afford the same defensive frailty displayed across 120 breathless minutes