Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC Nijmegen | Europa League | 22 October 2026

Result Summary

A genuinely surprising evening at Maksimir as NEC Nijmegen claimed a commanding 4–2 victory over Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League group stage. Despite the Croatian champions dominating possession and generating the greater volume of attempts, Dick Schreuder's side proved ruthlessly clinical on the counter, with Bryan Linssen's brace proving decisive in a match that completely defied the pre-match narrative.

Match Analysis

The opening exchanges belonged to Dinamo, who pressed forward with intent and finished the match holding 59% possession against NEC's 41%. However, it was the Dutch side who broke the deadlock. In the 25th minute, Clement Bischoff converted from a Noé Lebreton assist with a right-footed finish to give Nijmegen an early advantage — a lead that arrived just two minutes after Drena Beljo Dijon had already been cautioned for a foul in the 23rd minute.

Zagreb responded well. Beljo Dijon, despite his yellow card, turned provider and then scorer in a stunning five-minute spell. First, he headed home a Matteo Pérez Vinlöf delivery in the 33rd minute, then curled home a right-footed effort — assisted by Niko Galesic — in the 37th to put the hosts 2–1 ahead. Dinamo appeared to have wrested control, and a VAR review involving Luka Ivanušec at the 36th minute added further drama to an electric first-half period.

But NEC's resilience was evident. Just before the break, Bryan Linssen levelled matters with a header from a Bischoff assist to make it 2–2 at half-time — a goal that completely shifted momentum heading into the interval.

The second half told a very different story. Linssen struck again in the 54th minute, converting a right-footed effort set up by Darko Nejašmić, giving NEC a lead they would not relinquish. Dinamo's coach Mario Kovačević made significant changes — introducing Mislav Oršić, Daniel Rodríguez Crespo, and others — yet the home side could not find a way back. Their 10 shots on target against NEC's 5 illustrate a painful efficiency gap; Nijmegen simply made more of their moments.

The result was sealed in the 80th minute when Tjaronn Chery added a fourth with a composed left-footed finish, capping a superb collective performance from the visitors. NEC's 14 key passes marginally outpaced Dinamo's 11, underlining how effectively Schreuder's side created in transition despite being outgunned in raw attacking volume with only 73 attacks compared to Zagreb's 109.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast backed Dinamo Zagreb to win at 55% probability, yielding a 1–0 predicted scoreline with a confidence rating of just 58/100 — one of the lower-confidence outputs, which in retrospect reflected genuine uncertainty. The prediction was incorrect. NEC's clinical finishing and Dinamo's inability to convert their numerical superiority in chances into goals ultimately told the story. The xG narrative — many attempts, few conversions — was precisely the risk flagged by the moderate confidence level, even if the visiting team winning was assigned only a 21% probability.

Key Takeaways

• Bryan Linssen was the match's standout performer, contributing a goal and an assist before being withdrawn in the 90th minute.
• Drena Beljo Dijon delivered a fine individual showing for Zagreb — a yellow card, two goals, but ultimately on the losing side.
• NEC Nijmegen's counter-attacking efficiency was exemplary; four goals from five shots on target is a remarkable conversion rate.
• Dinamo's 59% possession and 16 total shots count for little without the finishing quality to match — a lesson Kovačević's side must urgently address.