Serie A · Matchday
2026-08-29 16:30:00 · 00:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 0-3
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.61 | 4.20 | 4.33 | -9.8% | +5.0% | -17.7% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.66 | 4.11 | 5.25 | -7.0% | +2.8% | -0.2% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.42 | -5.4% | +5.0% | +3.0% |
| WilliamHill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | -9.3% | -5.0% | -5.0% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.50 | -6.5% | -5.0% | +4.5% |
| bwin | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -7.6% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| Unibet | 1.63 | 3.85 | 5.10 | -8.7% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -7.6% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| CloudBet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.10 | -9.3% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -9.3% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| MansionBet | 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.70 | -7.6% | -3.7% | -10.7% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.63 | 4.04 | 5.20 | -8.7% | +1.0% | -1.2% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.30 | -7.6% | +2.5% | +0.7% |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 | -7.6% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.00 | -6.5% | +2.5% | -5.0% |
| Sbo | 1.62 | 3.47 | 4.52 | -9.3% | -13.2% | -14.1% |
| 10Bet | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.85 | -8.7% | -1.2% | -7.9% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Fiorentina 0–3 Frosinone | Serie A | 29 August 2026
Result Summary
In one of Serie A's most eye-catching results of the early season, Frosinone produced a stunning away performance at the Artemio Franchi, defeating Fiorentina 3–0 in a result that defied both expectations and the run of play on paper. Antonio Raimondo was the standout performer, netting twice, while Gabriele Bracaglia also got on the scoresheet in what was a comprehensive victory for Massimiliano Alvini's side.
Match Analysis
The statistics tell a story of two very different matches happening simultaneously. Fiorentina, under Fabio Grosso, dominated large stretches of possession — 60% of the ball — and generated an impressive 25 total shots compared to Frosinone's 12. They also recorded 108 attacks to Frosinone's 69 and completed 84% of their passes. On paper, these are the numbers of a team that controlled the contest. In reality, however, clinical finishing and defensive resilience won the day for the visitors.
The opening goal arrived on 26 minutes, when Raimondo converted from the left foot, assisted by Giorgi Kvernadze — a sweeping move that punished Fiorentina's defensive lines at a moment when the home side had been enjoying their best spell of possession. The timing was damaging. Just 12 minutes later, Bracaglia headed home a second from a Giacomo Calò delivery, extending the lead to two before the interval and effectively deflating the Artemio Franchi.
Discipline was a recurring theme throughout the game. Both Raimondo and Bracaglia had received yellow cards in the first half — at the 8th and 24th minutes respectively — meaning both goalscorers were walking a fine line. Fiorentina were also frustrated, with Albert Gudmundsson booked for dissent at the 49th minute before being withdrawn at the 71st, alongside Christ Inao Oulaï, as Grosso attempted to reshape his side. However, Frosinone's backline held firm and their own shots on target tally — 6 to Fiorentina's 4 — underlines just how efficiently they converted their chances.
The third goal, arriving on 68 minutes, sealed it. Raimondo completed his brace with another left-footed finish, this time assisted by Bracaglia, who had already found the net himself. The goal killed any lingering hope of a Fiorentina comeback and allowed Frosinone to manage the final stages comfortably despite conceding a number of corners — 8 for the home side in total.
Fiorentina's 13 shots off target is a telling figure. Volume without accuracy proved ultimately fruitless against a well-organised Frosinone defence that maximised every opportunity they created.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast backed Fiorentina to win at 56% probability, with a predicted scoreline of 2–1 to the hosts. The model's confidence sat at a moderate 55/100, reflecting some uncertainty, but the outcome was still well off the mark. A 3–0 away win for Frosinone fell squarely in the category of low-probability outcomes per our analysis, and the result serves as a reminder that home advantage and possession statistics do not always translate into points.
Key Takeaways
- Frosinone's efficiency was the decisive factor — 6 shots on target, 3 goals, maximum reward.
- Fiorentina's inability to convert from 25 attempts represents a significant finishing failure.
- Raimondo's brace despite an early booking underlines his importance to Alvini's system.
- Frosinone's composure under pressure and smart defensive organisation frustrated Fiorentina throughout.
- This result will demand a tactical response from Fabio Grosso, whose side were statistically dominant yet comprehensively beaten.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Fiorentina and Frosinone: Fiorentina 2W · 3D · Frosinone 1W.
2
Fiorentina wins
3
Draws
1
Frosinone wins
Fiorentina vs Frosinone — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
PredictNext's AI model favours Fiorentina with a 56% win probability — Fiorentina 56%, draw 25%, Frosinone 19%.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Fiorentina vs Frosinone, generated with 55% model confidence.
Will Fiorentina vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for under 2.5 goals in Fiorentina vs Frosinone.
How accurate was the Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 0-3. The winner call was incorrect.