Result Summary

Fluminense secured a comfortable 3-1 home victory over Deportivo La Guaira in the Copa Libertadores on May 28, 2026, at Maracanã. Despite a surprising early setback, the Brazilian side demonstrated their quality and resilience to turn the match around decisively, with Agustín Canobbio Graviz playing a central role in the evening's drama.

Match Analysis

The match began with an early shock for Fluminense. Flabián Londoño Bedoya broke the deadlock in the 12th minute with a composed left-foot finish, giving Deportivo La Guaira a lead that few would have anticipated. The early goal came just minutes after a VAR review at the 8th minute had already disrupted Fluminense's rhythm, with Canobbio Graviz under scrutiny in that decision.

Fluminense, however, responded with authority. Hércules Pereira do Nascimento levelled the tie in the 28th minute with a right-foot strike, assisted by Martinelli, bringing the Maracanã crowd back into the contest and restoring parity before the interval. Coach Luis Zubeldía's side had 56% possession throughout the match and generated 104 attacks compared to La Guaira's 84, with 56 dangerous attacks to the visitors' 33 — a statistical picture that reflected Fluminense's overall dominance.

The second half saw Fluminense take control more firmly. Canobbio Graviz delivered the decisive moment in the 66th minute, converting with his right foot to put the hosts ahead for the first time. The third goal — which sealed a convincing victory — completed a strong collective performance from Fluminense's attacking unit.

Interestingly, the shot statistics revealed a nuanced picture: Deportivo La Guaira registered 10 total shots to Fluminense's 7, though both sides were level on shots on target with 3 each. La Guaira's 7 off-target efforts compared to Fluminense's 4 highlighted the hosts' greater clinical efficiency. Fluminense also struggled slightly with discipline in their forward movements, registering 6 offsides throughout the game. Pass accuracy was high for both sides — 87% for Fluminense and 84% for La Guaira — suggesting an open, technically proficient contest.

Deportivo La Guaira made a bold triple substitution in the 58th minute, bringing on Juan Luis Perdomo Rivero, Manuel Sulbarán, and Carlos Enrique Faya Rivero, but the changes failed to alter the game's trajectory. Fluminense managed their own squad rotation sensibly in the closing stages, introducing Germán Cano, Yeferson Soteldo Martínez, and Kevin Serna Jaramillo late on to maintain momentum.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast projected a 1-0 Fluminense victory with a confidence level of 70/100, assigning the home side a 78% probability of winning. While the scoreline ultimately read 3-1 rather than the predicted 1-0, the direction of the result was correct — Fluminense won at home as anticipated. The model correctly identified the gulf in quality between the two sides and Fluminense's home advantage, even if it underestimated the Brazilian side's attacking output on the night. La Guaira's early goal was perhaps the one element that defied the analytical expectation of a controlled home performance.

Key Takeaways

• Fluminense's second-half dominance was the defining factor, turning a deficit into a convincing three-goal win.
• Canobbio Graviz was the match's standout individual, contributing both to the VAR controversy and the decisive second goal.
• Deportivo La Guaira showed early resilience through Londoño Bedoya's opener but ultimately lacked the sustained quality to compete across 90 minutes.
• Fluminense's superior attacking volume and dangerous attacks ultimately proved decisive despite La Guaira matching them on shots on target.