Frosinone
Frosinone
4 vs 2

Serie A · Matchday

2026-10-16 18:45:00 · 02:45 · Stadio Benito Stirpe

Sassuolo
Sassuolo

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 4-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Frosinone
FRO
1 - 1
Sassuolo
SAS
53%
Confidence
Low Confidence
40.0%Home
28.0%Draw
32.0%Away
39.3%Home
27.8%Draw
32.8%Away
**Frosinone** enter this Serie A clash with a slight edge on home turf, bolstered by a returning player cleared from injury, while **Sassuolo** face disruption with F. Leysen ruled out through a cruciate ligament injury — a significant blow to their defensive options. The home side's ability to exploit that defensive uncertainty through disciplined pressing could prove decisive in a tight contest. AI pick: Frosinone Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredFRO or SAS
72% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
58% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreAntonio RaimondoAlso: Tomas Bobcek, Daniel Birligea

Goal Probability

FRO SAS
0%
34%
0
63%
50%
1
38%
16%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

40%
39%
+0.8%
28%
27%
+1.0%
32%
34%
-1.8%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3652.453.502.70-2.0%-2.0%-13.6%
Pinnacle2.423.422.90-3.2%-4.2%-7.2%
1xbetVALUE2.533.542.96+1.2%-0.9%-5.3%
WilliamHill2.403.302.75-4.0%-7.6%-12.0%
Betfair2.303.502.80-8.0%-2.0%-10.4%
Marathonbet2.463.442.88-1.6%-3.7%-7.8%
BetVictorVALUE2.303.702.70-8.0%+3.6%-13.6%
DafabetVALUE2.433.602.80-2.8%+0.8%-10.4%
Sbo2.293.352.54-8.4%-6.2%-18.7%
MelBet2.443.402.85-2.4%-4.8%-8.8%
MansionBet2.313.552.72-7.6%-0.6%-13.0%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo: Raimondo Runs Riot in Stunning Home Display

Antonio Raimondo delivered one of the performances of the Serie A season as Frosinone dismantled Sassuolo 4–2 at the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Friday evening, producing a result that confounded expectations and underlined Massimiliano Alvini's side as a genuinely competitive force in the division.

Match Analysis

The contest erupted from the opening whistle. Giacomo Calò set the tone in just the ninth minute, finishing with his right foot to hand Frosinone an early advantage. Sassuolo, under Alberto Aquilani and enjoying the greater share of possession throughout — they would finish with 58% of the ball to Frosinone's 42% — responded quickly, with Domenico Berardi levelling on 15 minutes after a well-constructed move assisted by Darryl Bakola.

The match briefly had a VAR subplot at the 17-minute mark involving Frosinone's Giorgi Kvernadze, though the episode did not alter the scoreline. What did alter it dramatically was Antonio Raimondo. The striker scored twice in four minutes — the 26th and 30th — both times via his right foot, to put the hosts firmly in command. Kristian Thorstvedt pulled one back for Sassuolo in the 37th minute, assisted by Sebastiano Esposito, ensuring a tense 3–2 scoreline at the interval.

Despite Sassuolo's technical superiority on the ball — they registered an 81% successful pass rate compared to Frosinone's 74% — they found themselves undone by Frosinone's clinical edge in front of goal. The hosts generated 21 total shots to Sassuolo's 14, with 10 on target versus Sassuolo's six, numbers that speak to the efficiency with which Alvini's side converted pressure into tangible threat. Dangerous attacks also favoured Frosinone significantly, 59 to 42, despite playing against the run of possession.

Raimondo completed his hat-trick on 57 minutes, again with his right foot, to restore the two-goal cushion and effectively end the contest. Alberto Aquilani responded with a flurry of substitutions — Kieron Bowie, Benjamín Domínguez, Luca Lipani, Rafael Obrador Burguera, and Cristian Volpato all introduced — but Sassuolo could not find a way back into the game. Bowie earned a yellow card in the 82nd minute for a foul, a minor footnote in what was an evening of deep frustration for the visiting side.

Frosinone's own late changes, including Alessio Zerbin, Omar Fayed, and Wisdom Amey, allowed Alvini to manage the closing stages comfortably, with Daniel Birligea coming on in stoppage time to relieve the hat-trick hero Raimondo to deserved applause.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of a 1–1 draw proved well wide of the mark. With a confidence rating of just 53/100, the uncertainty in the prediction was acknowledged, but even the most cautious models underestimated Frosinone's attacking potency on the night. The away win probability was set at 32%, the home win at 40%, and while Frosinone were marginally favoured, a four-goal haul and a dominant shooting performance was beyond what the model anticipated. Sassuolo's possession advantage looked promising on paper but ultimately masked defensive vulnerabilities that Raimondo exploited relentlessly.

Key Takeaways

  • Antonio Raimondo's hat-trick was the defining narrative — three right-footed goals marked by composure and timing.
  • Frosinone punched well above their possession weight, turning 42% of the ball into 21 shots and four goals.
  • Sassuolo's ability to retain the ball did not translate into defensive solidity, a concern Aquilani will need to address.
  • Frosinone's direct, high-volume attacking approach under Alvini appears well-suited to the demands of a competitive Serie A campaign.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Frosinone and Sassuolo: Frosinone 2W · 5D · Sassuolo 8W.

2

5

8

Wed, Sep 2, 2026Sassuolo1-1Frosinone
Tue, May 13, 2025Sassuolo0-1Frosinone
Sat, Dec 14, 2024Frosinone1-2Sassuolo
Sat, Mar 9, 2024Sassuolo1-0Frosinone
Sun, Sep 17, 2023Frosinone4-2Sassuolo

Frosinone vs Sassuolo — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

PredictNext's AI model favours Frosinone with a 40% win probability — Frosinone 40%, draw 28%, Sassuolo 32%.

What is the predicted score for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Frosinone vs Sassuolo, generated with 53% model confidence.

Will Frosinone vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Frosinone vs Sassuolo.

How accurate was the Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 4-2. The winner call was correct.

More Serie A AI Predictions